Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

CHC (-246) vs. SDP – Jon Lester – This game was supposed to go last night but the rain had different plans and canned this puppy real quick. Just like yesterday, Lester is once again the favorite on the night. The only aspect that’s changed here is that we don’t have a boatload of solid pitching options to choose from like we did last night. Lester looks like the shining pick of the night. At $12,200, Lester is by far the most expensive pitcher on the slate, but he should be worth it since the Padres lead the league in K% against lefties. On a slate like tonight, it’s going to be hard to fade him.

WAS (-165) vs. DET – Joe Ross – Ross comes into tonight as the second favorite on this slate with a very friendly $7,700 salary. He faces off against a Tigers team that owns a .326 wOBA against righties, which ranks 10th in the league, but they also have a high 24.4 K%, which is 6th. Ross owns a 7.1 K/9 in five starts this season, so a decent strikeout total is certainly in the realm of possibilities. I love his salary and he could be a nice pairing with Lester, who will take a big chunk out of your salary cap.

Biggest Over/Unders

ARZ vs. COL – 11.5 runs – We’re back! Coors Field has come back into our lives to screw up our daily strategies. Do I fade Coors Field tonight or nah? Tonight might not exactly be the best night to fade. At 11.5 projected runs, Rubby De La Rosa and Chris Rusin take the mound for their teams and both of these guys are not what I’d call ace material. De La Rosa has been wild all season mixing in some solid starts with some REALLY bad ones. He’s always had issues with lefties, which plays well to the Rockies lineup with the likes of Blackmon and Gonzalez. With Rusin, he owns a career .369 wOBA against righties, which the Diamondbacks have in spades. Some days are easier than others to fade Coors, but tonight is not that night.

CHW vs TEX – 9.5 runs – Now back to your normal world of baseball, where the White Sox and Rangers have the highest projected run total in normal playing conditions. Carlos Rodon and Derek Holland take the mound in this one. Rodon is MONEY when it comes to facing left handed batters, righties not so much. Last time these two faced off against each other, the Rangers shuffled their lineup a bit and had five righties on that dat. Rodon was solid in that game, but the second time around against a team usually means advantage to the hitters. Overall, Rodon owns a career .348 wOBA against righties, while Holland is the same way, owning a career .337 wOBA against righties.

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Weather Concerns

1) PIT vs CIN (Great American Ballpark) – This game has a chance of thunderstorms all throughout the night because, of course it does. With a good stack option in this one (PIT) this would be a disappointment if it got rained out.

2) CHW vs TEX (Ballpark in Arlington) – Another good fantasy potential game being threatened with rain. Leave us alone! This could clear up later in the night, but keep an eye on this one.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors the hitters. Anything below this mark goes for the pitchers

  • Coors Field – ARZ vs COL – Coors was the best hitting ballpark in 2015 and I have no doubt it will be again and again and again. Last season, every offensive category was favored toward hitters.
  • Fenway Park – OAK vs BOS – Last night certainly showed that Fenway is a hitters park (bad pitching didn’t hurt either.) In 2015, Fenway favored hitters in runs, singles, doubles and triples.
  • AT&T Park – TOR vs SFG -Rated the worst ballpark for hitters last season, AT&T Park only favored hitters in triples last season.
  • Safeco Field – TBR vs SEA -Safeco Field is notorious for being a pitchers park and the numbers don’t lie. Last season, not a single offensive category was favorable to the hitters.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Alfredo Simon1.280.381Derek Holland.462.182
Adam Conley1.010.348Carlos Rodon.465.176
Alex Wood.972.367Jacob deGrom.474.204

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Matt Cain1.104.344Joe Ross.341.122
Zach Davies1.003.364Matt Wisler.440.136
Alfredo Simon.906.358Drew Smyly.470.156

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Brandon PhillipsJuan Nicasio113.18
Evan LongoriaWade Miley192.36
Troy TulowitzkiMatt Cain642.29

  • We start off with a small sample size with Brandon Phillips against Juan Nicasio. Phillips is 5-11 with a double, triple, home run and three RBIs.
  • Longoria hasn’t had a ton of success against Miley, but every hit has gone for extra bases. Longoria is 5-19 with three doubles, two home runs and three RBIs.
  • Finally, Tulo is struggling at the plate this season, but he hasn’t when facing Matt Cain. Tulo is 21-64 with five doubles, a triple, five home runs, 10 RBIs and seven walks.

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jon Lester – CHC vs. SDP – 12,200 – I hate to be boring and take Lester, but I just love this spot for him. Lester isn’t a huge strikeout guy, but he can most certainly hit the double digit mark which he’s done twice this season. With the Padres leading the league in K% against lefties,it’s hard to not at least have that thought in your head. Lester has been fantastic this season, owning a 1.58 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and averaging 23.1 fantasy points per game. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the slate, but he should be worth the price of admission here.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Carlos Gonzalez – COL vs. ARZ (Rubby De La Rosa) – $4,700 – Gonzalez has been healthy this season, which means he’s producing. Coming into tonight, Gonzalez has been crushing right handed pitching. Gonazlez owns a .394 wOBA thus far with an ISO of .188. In the ever so friendly confines of Coors Field against Rubby De La Rosa, who owns a career .372 wOBA against left handed hitters, it would be a tough sell to convince me why Gonzalez isn’t one of the top plays of the night.

Save Big by Drafting…

Cesar Hernandez – PHI vs ATL (Matt Wisler) – $2,600 – It’s been quite some time since I suggested my main man Hernandez. He’s about as cheap as they come and he’s always someone that goes under owned. Tonight he faces off against Matt Wisler, who owns a career .391 wOBA against lefties. While Hernandez won’t get you a quick 14 points with a home run, he can steal a bag or two on any given night. At the price of $2,600 a hit and stolen base for eight points would absolutely suffice here.

Stack Em Up

PIT vs CIN (Alfredo Simon) – At this point with Simon, I’m essentially waiting for him to betray the Reds and show he’s on someone else payroll. A very WWE type situation could develop where he rips off his jersey and he’s wearing a Pirates uniform as the crowd cheers. Simon has been THAT bad this season. In six starts, Simon is averaging 2.9 FPPG owning a 9.86 ERA with a 2.19 WHIP. It almost doesn’t matter who he’s facing, they seem like the sensible stack. Coming into tonight, Simon owns a .532 wOBA against lefties and a .402 against righties. Truly everyone on the Pirates is in play here.