WATCH: MLB IN 90 SECONDS JOEY VOTTO


Tuesday night brings us a 12-game slate of baseball. Let’s dive right into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres – Zack Greinke ($12,400) –  After a night where the Padres struck out 11 times against Robbie Ray, they have another daunting matchup against Zack Greinke tonight. This will be the eighth start at home for Greinke, where he’s averaging 24.7 FPPG with a .253 wOBA, a .371 SLG and a K/9 of 11.6. This is the third matchup this season for Greinke against this Padres team, and he’s naturally pitched extremely well against them. In 14 innings of work, Greinke has allowed two runs on 11 hits with a 17:1 K:BB ratio. He’s the second-most expensive pitcher on this slate tonight, but he’s once again in a fantastic spot and should be worth the salary.

Highest Totals

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Baltimore Orioles – 9.5 projected runs – The Orioles own the highest projected run total on this slate at 5.3 runs as they get set to take on Chad Kuhl. Through 11 starts this season, Kuhl is averaging just 6.8 FPPG with five home runs allowed. On the road, Kuhl has pitched well, posting a .301 wOBA with a .395 SLG with only one of his five home runs allowed. To be fair, however, he’s pitched in Chicago, St. Louis, Miami and L.A., all home to pitcher-friendly ballparks. The Orioles haven’t exactly been crushing it at home this year, posting a .312 wOBA with a .411 SLG and a .311 OBP. With that being said, opposing hitters have a 37% hard hit rate against Kuhl over his last three games. I think the Orioles will get to him fast tonight, making them a very viable stack.

Weather Concerns

No weather concerns tonight!

Park Factors

Now that we’ve entered the month of June, I’ll be switching over to the 2017 Park Factor stats.

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Chase Field – San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Chase Field is our number one ballpark for hitters on the night as the D-Backs take on the Padres. So far in 2017, all offensive categories except triples are favored here.
  • Miller Park – San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers – Miller Park is our second most favorable ballpark for hitters tonight. All offensive categories except triples are favored here.
  • Camden Yards – Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Baltimore Orioles – Camden Yards is our worst ballpark for hitters tonight statistically. Walks have been the only offensive category here that favor hitters in the early going.
  • Kauffman Stadium – Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals – Kauffman Stadium ranks as our second work ballpark for hitters tonight. Doubles have been the only favorable category here.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Adalberto Mejia1.091.364Dallas Keuchel.278.100
Chad Kuhl1.080.343Ty Blach.472.167
Bronson Arroyo.980.263Jose Urena.534.185

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Jose Urena1.004.314Lance Lynn.443.139
Yovani Gallardo.966.345Dallas Keuchel.567.203
Bronson Arroyo.935.306Zack Greinke.625.211

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Paul GoldschmidtLuis Perdomo133.76
Chase HeadleyRick Porcello222.5

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Zack Greinke – ARI vs. SD – $12,400 – I didn’t want to get too cute with this slate, so I’m rolling with Greinke. Dallas Keuchel has a favorable matchup tonight, but I worry about the lack of strikeouts from the Royals, coupled with his very high $12,500 salary. It feels realistic to expect at least six strikeouts from Greinke tonight. The Padres own the second highest K% in the league at 25.8, which matches up nicely with Greinke’s 11.6 K/9 at Chase Field. Even with his high salary, he should pay it off for us tonight.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Nelson Cruz – SEA vs. MIN – $4,900 – Cruz was pulled early last night due to a tight calf muscle but is expected to play again tonight. For our sake, we hope he does. He faces off against Adalberto Mejia, who is allowing a .358 wOBA to righties with a .484 SLG with four of his five home runs allowed. As usual, Cruz is posting a .434 wOBA at home against lefties with a .667 SLG and a .385 OBP.

Save Big by Drafting…

Seth Smith – BAL vs. PIT – $3,700 – We mentioned how poorly Kuhl has been against lefties this season. If you need a refresher, Kuhl owns a .442 wOBA with a .667 SLG and all five of his home runs. So it seems logical to grab Seth Smith in this spot, right? Smith has a .349 wOBA at home against righties with a .476 SLG and a .348 OBP.

Stack Em Up

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees (CC Sabathia) – The Red Sox hit lefties extremely well, and Sabathia pitches poorly at home against righties. Do you see the connection here? The Red Sox will enter this game with a .334 wOBA against lefties, good for seventh in the league, with a .422 SLG and a .349 OBP. Sabathia is posting a .356 wOBA at home with five of his nine home runs allowed. A Red Sox stack won’t crush your salary tonight either, as you’ll be able to save some money assuming Chris Young draws the start here tonight.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.