With a huge 15 game slate taking place tonight, we have a plethora of targets to look at and things to consider. I’ll take you over what to expect for tonight and where to look. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine, @SBuchanan24.
CHC (-225) vs. PHI – Kyle Hendricks – – Another night, another Cubs favouritism against the Phillies. Kyle Hendricks gets the nod tonight, as he comes into this game with a 2.84 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP averaging 16.9 FPPG. Hendricks faced this Phillies team very recently and pitched a gem of a game. In that start, Hendricks pitched nine innings, allowing one run on five hits with a 7:0 K:BB ratio. Fresh off that recent success, it’s hard to think Hendricks can’t at least replicate that somewhat tonight, as the Phillies offense continues to struggle immensely. The only factor to consider otherwise, is that Hendricks has pitched very poorly on the road this season, owning a 4.37 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP. Against this Phillies offense however, I wouldn’t think about it too much.
STL (-168) vs. CIN – Mike Leake – – I certainly like the Cardinals in this spot, I just don’t know if I can say the same about Leake. He’s been decent for the Cardinals, owning a 3.82 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and averaging 13.3 FPPG. He’s going against a Reds offense that ranks 23rd in wOBA against righties at .303 with a 22.8 K%. While the matchup certainly is favorable along with his price tag, Leake is not someone I necessarily turn to for a SP2 on almost any night. His strikeout potential is always low, checking in with a 5.5 K/9 on the season, which really puts a damper on his value. If you’re looking to save some money, sure, Leake is an option, I just feel you can find better elsewhere.
TOR vs DET – 9.5 runs- – Aaron Sanchez and Matt Boyd will take the mound in the highest projected run total of the night. After a horrific 2015, Boyd has really started to come around this season, as this will be his third start of 2016. Even though Boyd has looked decent in those starts, has hasn’t gone very deep into games, with 6.1 innings being his most thus far. Both of these teams are hitting their opposing pitchers well, with the Blue Jays owning a .319 wOBA against lefties and the Tigers a .333 wOBA against righties. As always, with the highest projected run total of the night, get some exposure here where you can.
I don’t know how we pulled it off, but somehow, someway, I don’t see any trouble spots for weather tonight. Maybe this is a jinx now, but as of writing this morning, we’re in the clear.
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. If an offensive category has a rating of 1.000 or higher, it favors the hitters. Anything below 1.000 favors pitching.
- Globe Life Park – HOU vs TEX – Globe Life Parks continues to be the top hitting ballpark besides Coors Field. With a favorable rating in everything but walks, it’s quite an attractive spot for hitters.
- Chase Field – TBR vs ARZ – Chase Field is currently ranked fourth overall this season with a favorable rating in every offensive category except doubles.
- Dodger Stadium – COL vs LAD – Quite the difference for the Dodgers, as they go from their top hitting park to the worst of 2016 in Dodger Stadium. It currently only favors triples this season.
- Citizen Bank Park – CHC vs PHI – I fully believe that by the end of the season, Citizens Bank Park won’t be ranked as low as it is. Coming into this matchup, only triples and walks are favored for hitters.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Aaron Blair||.962||.328||Sean Manaea||.366||.138|
|Juan Nicasio||.953||.317||Rick Porcello||.541||.191|
|Michael Pineda||.941||.333||Kyle Hendricks||.548||.209|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Sean Manaea||.936||.336||Kyle Hendricks||.542||.195|
|Michael Pineda||.921||.310||Joe Ross||.555||.192|
|Rick Porcello||.909||.279||Aaron Sanchez||.593||.231|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Yunel Escobar||Michael Pineda||15||3.53|
|Evan Gattis||Cole Hamels||20||2.55|
|Eric Hosmer||Ubaldo Jimenez||29||2.48|
- We start off with a bit of surprising numbers from Escobar taking on Pineda. Escobar is 7-15 with a double, two home runs and six RBIs.
- Next we have Evan Gattis, who has taken Cole Hamels deep three times this in their match ups. Gattis is 7-20 with three solo shots.
- To cap off today’s BvP, we have the red hot Eric Hosmer taking on Ubaldo Jimenez. Hosmer is 10-29 with a double, two home runs, seven RBIs and six walks.
Pitcher to Build Around
Cole Hamels – TEX vs. HOU – $10,300– Maybe not what you were expecting here, but Hamels has really had his way with the Astros this season, with two starts under his belt prior to tonight. In those starts, Hamels has pitched 14.2 innings allowing two runs on 10 hits with an 18:5 K:BB ratio. Granted, the walks could be a bit better, but the strikeout potential we have for Hamels here is hard to pass up. The Astros currently rank second in the league in K% against a lefty at 25.9%. They also have the potential to go on one of their runs and pop off for eight or nine runs, but with Hamels being able to handle them twice this season, I can’t see why we wouldn’t see a three-peat.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Mike Trout – LAA vs NYY (Michael Pineda) – $5,300 – It’s hard to ignore just how poorly Pineda is pitching this season, even with his matchup against the Angels on tap. His home numbers have not been good by any means, and I have a funny feeling they won’t get much better tonight. In five starts, Pineda owns a 7.48 ERA at home with a 1.66 WHIP and nine of his 11 home runs allowed. With Trout hitting in the heart of this Angels lineup and owning a .418 wOBA against righties on the road with a .268 ISO and .598 SLG, Trout would be a really hard pass for me tonight.
Save Big by Drafting…
Matt Adams – STL vs CIN (John Lamb) – $3,600 – Adams continues to be underpriced in my opinion, but believe me, no complaints here. He’s often overlooked as the first base position is chalk full of big names, which makes me love Adams even more. Taking on John Lamb today, who is allowing a .383 wOBA against lefties, Adams owns a .389 wOBA himself when facing a lefty. Just like Trout, Adams has been hitting in the heart of the Cardinals lineup and grabbing him in such a prime spot should only be beneficial tonight. Not only that, a nice savings at a position that so many pay up at will certainly give you a contrarian spin on your lineup.
Stack Em Up
STL vs. CIN (John Lamb) – On second thought, let’s just insert Adams into our Cardinals stack tonight. Lamb has been having some major issues getting guys out and keeping them off the base paths. Owning a 3.8 BB/9 and a 1.63 WHIP will certainly tell the story here. Lamb has been better at home than he has on the road, but this Cardinals team knows how to hit, owning a .345 wOBA on the road this season with a .192 ISO and a .463 SLG. I think this stack can be extremely successful tonight and one that isn’t overly difficult to fit into your roster.