WATCH: IMPACT PLAYER – ANDREW MCCUTCHEN
Tuesday night brings us a massive 15-game slate of baseball. Let’s dive right into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Chicago Cubs vs. Miami Marlins – Jake Arrieta ($9,000) – Jake Arrieta and the Cubs are the big favorites tonight as they take on the Marlins. At 3.1 projected runs, the Marlins have the lowest total on the slate, barely beating out the Twins at 3.3. It’s a bit surprising, figuring how inconsistent Jake Arrieta has been. He’s only pitched three games at home thus far and owns a .290 wOBA with a .403 SLG and a K/9 of 9.1. I’m not getting overly excited about this numbers, figuring those games came against the Pirates, Phillies and Brewers. But let’s give credit where it’s due, as Arrieta has pitched well over his last three games. Facing the Padres, Dodgers and Brewers, Arrieta has gone 18 innings allowing six runs (five earned) on 15 hits with a 22:4 K:BB ratio. It’s certainly encouraging, despite the 40% hard hit rate during that span, but $9,000 is more than affordable for him tonight. I don’t LOVE Arrieta, but the case can be made to get him on your roster.
Cleveland Indians vs. Colorado Rockies – 11 projected runs – Ah yes, Coors Field, back in our lives once again. The Indians are favored here with 5.5 projected runs as they take on Antonio Senzatela. He’s been about as good as you can be pitching at Coors Field, averaging 13.8 FPPG in six starts with a .299 wOBA and a .400 SLG. This certainly isn’t an easy matchup for him, as the Indians own a .327 wOBA against righties with a .439 SLG and a .324 OBP. Like Arrieta, Senzatela has allowed a 40% hard hit rate to opposing hitters over his last three starts with only one of those games coming at Coors Field (coincidentally, his best start of the three). I suspect the Indians will be one of the more popular stacks on the night, even with the big guns of Max Scherzer and Robbie Ray taking the mound.
No weather concerns tonight!
Now that we’ve entered the month of June, I’ll be switching over to the 2017 Park Factor stats.
Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.
- Chase Field – San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Chase Field is our number one ballpark for hitters on the night as the D-Backs take on the Padres. So far in 2017, all offensive categories except triples are favored here.
- Coors Field – Cleveland Indians vs. Colorado Rockies – Coors Field is our second most favorable ballpark for hitters on the evening. As always, every offensive category gets the nod here.
- Camden Yards – Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Baltimore Orioles – Camden Yards is our worst ballpark for hitters tonight statistically. Walks have been the only offensive category here that favors hitters in the early going.
- Kauffman Stadium – Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals – Kauffman Stadium ranks as our second work ballpark for hitters tonight as the Royals host the Astros. Doubles have been the only favorable category here for hitters.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Hector Santiago||1.594||.513||James Paxton||.423||.192|
|Drew Pomeranz||1.092||.400||Robbie Ray||.542||.227|
|Jake Arrieta||.936||.295||Jaime Garcia||.575||.209|
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Kevin Gausman||.969||.370||Max Scherzer||.451||.141|
|Masahiro Tanaka||.964||.310||James Paxton||.491||.185|
|Jesse Chavez||.856||.272||Jesse Hahn||.569||.238|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Anthony Rizzo||Jeff Locke||26||3.5|
|Mark Trumbo||Ivan Nova||21||3.19|
|Nelson Cruz||Hector Santiago||18||2.77|
*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)
Pitcher to Build Around
Chris Archer – TB vs. CWS – $10,600 – Archer rounds out the four pitchers that cost an excess of $10K tonight as he takes on the White Sox. Pitching at Tropicana Park has always been a favorable spot for Archer, as he’s averaging 25.9 FPPG in six starts this season with a .261 wOBA, a .315 SLG and a K/9 of 12.6. The White Sox, as you know, continue to struggle at the plate. Against righties, they’re sporting a team .294 wOBA with a .388 SLG and a 23.2 K%. I like Archer as a lineup building block tonight.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Jay Bruce – NYM vs. TEX – $4,600 – Dillon Gee is making his first start of the season, but look pal, we haven’t forgotten how poorly you pitch against lefties. Gee owns a career .344 wOBA against them and a .357 last season. Gee is no stranger to allowing the home run ball either, allowing 10 of his 24 to left-handed batters. On a slate with Coors Field, Bruce could see suppressed ownership.
Save Big by Drafting…
Ben Gamel – SEA vs. MIN – $3,500 – I like Gamel as a bit of a sneaky play tonight against Hector Santiago. With so many solid options at outfield tonight, Gamel could easily go overlooked. Hector Santiago, somehow, someway, has been destroyed by lefties in such a short span of time. In just six innings of work against them, Santiago has allowed 12 runs on 18 hits with five home runs. With Gamel hitting near the top of the lineup, he certainly has some opportunities to tack onto those numbers.
Stack Em Up
New York Mets vs. Texas Rangers (Dillon Gee) – A left-handed attack by the Mets is one of my favorite ways to go tonight. The Mets have plenty of hitters that can bat from the left-side tonight and could go overlooked across the board. The Mets are projected for 5.3 runs tonight, which is the second highest on this slate.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.