We have 10 games going tonight, which means we have plenty of information to give you for this slate. Let’s jump right into all of it, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
CHC (-250) vs. PHI – Jon Lester – Going up against one of the worst offensive teams in the majors against lefties, Jon Lester and the Cubs get the nod as the favorites on this slate. The Phillies continue to struggle against left-handed pitchers, owning a team wOBA of .266 with a .105 ISO, and .331 SLG and a K% of 24.1%, which ranks fourth in the league. Lester is the most expensive pitcher on this slate at $11,600, but his upside in this matchup is fantastic. With an 8.7 K/9 on the year, Lester most certainly has the ability to replicate his first start against the Phillies, where he struck out seven. In that matchup, Lester lasted 6.1 innings, allowing two runs (one earned) on six hits with a 7:2 K:BB ratio.
NYY (-160) vs. LAA – Masahiro Tanaka – The Angels are not that slouch of an offensive team you’ve been hearing about all season. Coming into tonight, they rank 14th in team wOBA against righties at .314 with a .133 ISO, a .396 SLG and a league low 15.7 K%. They face off against Masahiro Tanaka, who has a low price of $8,300, but the lack of strikeouts from the Angels really doesn’t make this an attractive start for him. If you’re looking for a perfect example of how this start could go for Tanaka, look no further than his last outing against the Blue Jays. In that start, Tanaka went six innings allowing two runs (one earned) on seven hits with a 2:1 K:BB ratio. In the real world this wouldn’t be a bad start, but on DK, it only earned him 10.7 points. I would be using Tanaka in GPP only tonight.
HOU vs TEX – 9.5 – With this game taking place in the second best hitting ballpark in baseball right now, the Astros and Rangers face-off in the highest projected run total of the night. Mike Fiers will take on Colby Lewis in this one. Both of these pitchers have pitched a decent game against their opposing teams this season, so I’m a bit intrigued about this being the highest projected total. Coming into this game, neither team is exactly crushing it against righties, with the Rangers owning a .316 wOBA and the Astros a .313 wOBA. Their SLG is also nothing that impressive with the Rangers at .417 and the Astros .410. Hitting in Globe Life Park should certainly help their cause tonight, but I won’t be going crazy with exposure in this one.
1) NYM vs. PIT (PNC Park) – The only weather concern we have going today will be at PNC Park for the Mets and Pirates. In this game, thunderstorms will be around the area the entire night, so make sure you keep an eye on this one.
Park Factors (best/worst) below are focused on hitters. The “best” parks are better for hitting and the “worst” parks are worse for hitting.
- Globe Life Park – HOU vs TEX – Ranked the number two overall ballpark in baseball this season, Globe Life Park has a favorable rating in every offensive category except walks.
- Chase Field – TBR vs ARZ – Chase Field gets the nod for the number three ballpark in all of baseball so far this season. It has a favorable rating in every category with the exception of doubles.
- Dodger Stadium – COL vs LAD – Dodger Stadium is no longer the worst ballpark for hitters this season, but it makes the cut for number one on our list. Every offensive category still favors pitchers so far this season
- Citizen Bank Park – CHC vs PHI – Only two categories are favored here in Citizens Bank Park – triples and walks.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Christian Friedrich||1.069||.375||Danny Duffy||.478||.212|
|Adam Morgan||.767||.267||J.A. Happ||.505||.200|
|Matt Shoemaker||.746||.269||Mike Bolsinger||.554||.211|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Adam Morgan||.918||.308||Steven Matz||.544||.213|
|Mike Fiers||.907||.302||Jon Lester||.604||.217|
|Mike Bolsinger||.896||.250||Masahiro Tanaka||.563||.211|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Carlos Correa||Colby Lewis||12||3.08|
|Kyle Seager||Trevor Bauer||12||2.83|
|Carlos Gonzalez||Mike Bolsinger||11||2.54|
- Carlos Correa starts off our BvP section with some numbers against Colby Lewis. Correa is 5-12 with a double, two home runs and three RBIs.
- Kyle Seager and Trevor Bauer haven’t met too often as of yet, but Seager looks as if he’s gotten the best of him. Seager is 5-12 with a double, a home run and five RBIs.
- Rounding out our BvP for today will be Carlos Gonzalez taking on Mike Bolsinger. This isn’t a big one by any means, but today’s selection was quite thin. Cargo is 5-11 with a double, a home run and an RBI.
Pitcher to Build Around
Jon Lester – CHC vs. PHI – $11,600 – When it came down to choosing between Lester and Matz, we had one glaring stat that makes a world of difference. With Lester facing the Phillies, he gets a team with a high K% against lefties at 24.1% with a wOBA of .266. Matz gets the Pirates, who also own a high K% against lefties at 23.8%, but their wOBA against lefties checks in a .343. Whew, that’s quite the difference. Even with Lester tagging you for an additional $1,200 over Matz, his matchup against the Phillies is a much safer one than the Pirates. With Lester facing these Phillies for the second time in than two weeks (scoring 25.5 fantasy points in that game), I have no doubt Lester will come away with another solid game here.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Evan Longoria – TB vs. ARZ (Robbie Ray) – $5,100 – Longoria had quite the series against the Twins. In four games Longoria went 7-16 with five home runs. Quite a way to go on a hot streak isn’t it? Even before that series, Longoria was starting to heat up averaging 7.2 FPPG over the 10 games prior to the Twins series. He faces off against left-handed pitcher Robbie Ray today, which plays perfectly into Longoria wheelhouse. Owning a .369 wOBA against lefties with a .519 SLG and an ISO of .222, Longoria should be able to continue his hot streak tonight with no troubles.
Save Big by Drafting…
Eric Hosmer – KCR vs. BAL (Mike Wright) – $3,400 – Hosmer has been bouncing all over the place salary wise over the past few days, and tonight he sits at $3,400 against Mike Wright from Baltimore. Hosmer is having a huge season, batting .321 with 10 home runs, 35 RBIs and averaging 8.8 FPPG. With Wright allowing a .433 wOBA to lefties with a .607 SLG, Hosmer should be in a prime position tonight to take advantage of Wright’s weakness against lefties. Also, for what it’s worth, Hosmer owns a .423 wOBA against righties this season.
Stack Em Up
CHC vs. PHI (Adam Morgan) – Morgan has not looked good at any point this season and is fresh off a beating from the Cubs two starts ago. In that game, Morgan lasted only four innings allowing six runs on eight hits, three of them being home runs. The Cubs are heating back up offensively, including Anthony Rizzo. The Cubs are one of the best hitting teams against lefties this season, owning a .343 wOBA with a .422 SLG. I don’t think they’ll be shut down by Morgan in this one at all.