Surprise! Here I am writing the Cheat Sheet on a Saturday! Everyone is so lucky that they get me the entire weekend. Please, contain your excitement! We have a full slate of games today split, into the day and night, so we’ll cover both slates. As always, if you have any thoughts you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Heaviest Pitcher Favorites
Madison Bumgarner vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-193) – Unlike yesterday, we actually have some GOOD pitching going today. Yesterday was a real challenge to find someone to roster. Bumgarner is the favorite today according to Vegas. He matches up against a Phillies team that’s 28th in the league in hitting and last in runs scored, OPS, and home runs. I don’t think I need to explain much more here.
Clayton Kershaw vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-190) – Kershaw gets a tougher assignment, going up against the Cardinals. Even though they’re team average is good at .267, they’re only 17th in runs and 26th home runs. After struggling a bit in the beginning of the season, Kershaw has turned two good starts in a row against the Braves and Rockies. In those two starts, he gave up only two runs while striking out 17. I think it’s safe to safe he’s back on track. Just be prepared to pay for him.
Felix Hernandez vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-173) Truly, we have three rock solid pitchers in this section. It seems as if you can’t go wrong with any of these guys today. Hernandez is having a typical Hernandez season with a 2.63 ERA to go along with 75 strikeouts in 75 innings pitched. He goes up against the light hitting Rays at Safeco field, which always gives pitchers a boost. See more about Hernandez below.
Top Overall Game Over/Unders
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies (Coors Field) – 11 Over/Under- As always, the Coors Field effect is alive and well. We have a real pitchers duel here today with David Phelps taking on Chris Rusin. Honestly, unless you’re one of the three pitchers listed above, the run total is always going to be inflated. Just remember that the price of the hitters always are increased For example, Giancarlo Stanton is almost 6K. But, it’s usually well worth the price. Target the hitters here.
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Rogers Centre) – 9 Over/Under – Once again, these two teams are in the section as well. Drew Hutchison takes on the recently returned Brett Oberholtzer in this one. Hutchison struggles against righties, so it might not be a bad idea to target a few of them, as they hitting .303 against him. Oberholtzer last start since coming off the DL was against Baltimore where he gave up two runs in 5 1/3 innings and struck out three.
Toughest Left/Right Matchups
Toughest Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
Garrett Richards vs. New York Yankees- Richards starts us off today with his numbers against lefites. Hey’re only hitting .179 off of him this year. His K/9 sits at 7.3 on the season.
Felix Hernandez vs. Tampa Bay Rays – No one is really hitting anything off Hernandez this season…..or ever actually. Lefites are only hitting him to a tune of .201 this season. His K/9 is at an even 9 on the year.
Toughest Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
Jesse Chavez vs. Boston Red Sox – With all the aces going today, I wasn’t expecting these two to be headlining this section. Nonetheless, Chavez is best against righties, as they’re only hitting .176 against him! His K/9 is at 7.7.
Jason Hammel vs. Washington Nationals – Hammel has been having a fantastic season this year, and his success against righties is a big part of that. They’re only hitting .199 against him. His K/9 is at 9.3.
Best Left/Right Matchups
Easiest Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
Severino Gonzalez vs. San Francisco Giants – Gonzalez hasn’t had much success this year against lefties, as they’re hitting .536 against him. Wait…..what? .536? He must have only pitched one game, hold on let me look. He’s pitched four game?! Who does this guy think he is? Get off the mound you bum! Boooooo!
Julio Teheran vs. Pittsburgh Pirates– You know what, normally I’d rip into Teheran here because lefties are hitting .350 against him. But when you follow Gonzalez, everyone looks like an ace now. So it’s all good Julio, it’s been a bad run you’ll bounce back!
Easiest Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
Alex Colome vs. Seattle Mariners – Colome hasn’t enjoyed his time against righties this season. They’re hitting .313 against him. His K/9 is at 6.8 on the season. I can’t believe Gonzalez, man……
John Danks vs Detroit Tigers – Danks has also been seeing his share of struggles against righties, as they’re hitting .304 against him. In a crazy turn of events, he did just pitch a complete game shut out against a hard hitting Astros team, so take that for what it’s worth.
Paul Goldschmidt ($5600) – Goldy continues to crush the ball as of late. He’s 10 for his last 23 with four homeruns, eight RBIs, a stolen base and seven runs scored.
A.J. Pollock ($4600) – These Diamondbacks are all heating up at the same time it seems like. Pollock is 13 for his last 33 with two home runs, seven RBIs, three stolen bases and six runs scored. Pollock can really do it all.
Giancarlo Stanton ($5700) – Stanton is heating up, which is bad news for all of baseball. He’s 7 for his last 23 with five home runs, five RBIs, and six runs scored. It’s just a shame that all his home runs are solo, as the Marlins are struggling to get on base as of late.
Best Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
Ian Kinsler vs. John Danks – Kinsler has crushed Danks in his career. He’s batting .341 against him with four home runs and a 1.104 OPS. Danks might as well just walk him each time he’s up.
Josh Donaldson vs. Brett Oberholtzer – Donaldson has been hitting everyone well lately, but at least he has proven numbers against Oberholtzer. He’s 6-15 against him with a home run and a 1.367 OPS.
Adam Eaton vs. David Price – I wanted to throw this one in here because even though the hits aren’t impressive, it’s still a decent sample against an ace. Eaton is 7-12 off of Price, but all the hits are singles. Still, it’s someone you know what be heavily owned today.
The following three games have a threat of rain all throughout the day:
Cubs at Nationals
Brewers at Twins
Marlins at Rockies
One Pitcher To Build Lineups Around
Felix Hernandez vs. Tampa Bay Rays ($11500) – Sure, Hernandez is expensive, but I think tonight he will be well worth the investment. The Rays strikeout a lot, as they’re 5th in the league in doing so. Hernandez has a 9 K/9 on the season so I like that. They’re at Safeco field, which is always great for pitchers and can minimize the Rays power. Finally, the Rays are near the bottom of the league in hitting, and runs scored. Combined, you have a good chance at success here.
Superstar Worth Paying For…
Josh Donaldson ($5200) – Donaldson has been stellar since being acquired by Oakland last off season. He’s hitting .311 on the year with 15 home runs and 39 RBIs. He has good numbers against Brett Oberholtzer, as I mentioned earlier. He’s 6-15 with a home run and a 1.367 OPS. I got to roll with the Donaldson, man.