We have a short five game slate on tap for tonight with Clayton Kershaw on the mound. Be prepared for some heavy exposure to him all around. Let’s jump right into all the information for tonight, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
LAD (-380) vs. ATL – Clayton Kershaw – Oh my. This may just be the biggest line I’ve seen yet this season. Kershaw and the Dodgers going up against the Braves is about as lopsided as it gets. In his prior start against the Braves this season, Kershaw pitched eight innings, allowing one run on 10 hits (the most he’s allowed this season) while striking out 10. I have a funny feeling Kershaw won’t be allowing 10 hits tonight, but he could very well replicate the 10 strikeouts he had. Kershaw is going to be the most popular pitcher on the night, even with his incredible $14,100 salary.
BAL (-122) vs. NYY – Tyler Wilson – Wilson has been bouncing from the bullpen to the rotation this season with suceess in both areas. Overall this season, Wilson owns a 3.83 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and a 4.7 K/9. He takes on the Yankees tonight, who continue to dwell near the bottom of the league against righties, owning a .298 wOBA with a .298 OBP and a 19.3 K/9. Even though Wilson isn’t doing anything phenonmal, I expect him to be highly owned as people will be looking to pair him with Kershaw to offset the price. At $4,700 tonight, pairing him with Kershaw allows you on average of $3,900 per player to fill out the rest of your roster, which is extremely doable. Don’t expect anything huge here besides how highly owned he will be.
NYY vs. BAL – 9 runs – Even with the less than stellar Yankees offense, this game has the highest projected run total on the night. It does make sense, as we don’t really know what to expect fully from Wilson, and the Orioles are hitting right-handed pitching extremely well this season. Coming into this game, the Orioles own a .342 wOBA with a .464 SLG and .193 ISO. Facing off against Ivan Nova, who owns a .381 wOBA on the road this season, this game certainly has the potential to see some high scoring here. I would grab some exposure to this one if you can.
1) NYY vs BAL (Camden Yards) – So wait, I hype this game up in two different sections, and now I’m going to give you some weather concerns?! It’s not that bad, as they have a chance of thunderstorms LATE in the game. Otherwise, they’ll play under mostly cloudy conditions. Just check in this one closer to game time.
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.
- Globe Life Park – SEA vs TEX – Globe Life Park is the second best park in all of baseball for hitters so far in 2016. It currently favors hitters in every offensive category except walks.
- Progressive Field – KCR vs CLE – Progressive Field checks in as the second most favorable ballpark on the slate tonight. So far in 2016, it favors hitters in every category except triples.
- Dodger Stadium – ATL vs. LAD – As if it couldn’t get any worse for the Braves, Dodger Stadium is currently ranked the worst ballpark for hitters this season. In 2016, it does not have a single category favoring hitters.
- Busch Stadium – SFG vs. STL – No real disadvantage for the Giants here, as they don’t exactly have a stadium that favors hitters. Busch Stadium only favors doubles so far in 2016.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Bud Norris||1.063||.328||Clayton Kershaw||.344||.136|
|Chad Bettis||.746||.279||Martin Perez||.452||.152|
|Michael Wacha||.720||.237||Ian Kennedy||.623||.208|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Andrew Cashner||.950||.321||Clayton Kershaw||.459||.178|
|Michael Wacha||.825||.313||Jeff Samardzija||.581||.220|
|Chad Bettis||.788||.275||Ian Kennedy||.668||.224|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Mark Trumbo||Ivan Nova||16||3.31|
|Kyle Seager||Martin Perez||22||2.86|
|Evan Longoria||Ervin Santana||17||2.52|
- First we start off with Mark Trumbo, who feels like he should have a huge BvP against every pitcher he faces this season. Facing Nova, Trumbo is 9-16 with a double, two home runs and four RBIs.
- Kyle Seager is always a power threat when he comes to the plate, so it should be no surprise that he’s taken care of Perez. Seager is 10-22 with three home runs and five RBIs.
- Finally, we have Evan Longoria who is matchup up with Ervin Santana tonight. Longoria is 7-17 with two home runs and three RBIs.
Pitcher to Build Around
Clayton Kershaw – LAD vs. ATL – $14,100 – I don’t even feel like I have to write something here. We all know he was going to be here and we all know why we should be taking him. The rest of the pitching options is pretty ugly tonight, which makes grabbing Kershaw even more obvious. So yeah, Kershaw.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Nelson Cruz – SEA vs. TEX (Martin Perez) – $5,400 – Cruz against a left-handed pitcher is almost as automatic as Kershaw on a slate. This season against lefties has been business as usual for Cruz, as he owns a .388 wOBA against them with a .581 SLG and an ISO of .306. Cruz has hit five of his 11 home runs against lefties this season and takes on Martin Perez, who not only struggles against righties with his .325 wOBA, but also has allowed all five of his home runs against them. Cruz might be a bit tough to fit in your lineup if you’re taking Kershaw, but it’s a great spot for him and one that would be worth trying to fit in.
Save Big by Drafting…
Eric Hosmer – KCR vs. CLE (Josh Tomlin) – $3,100 – Wait a second, am I missing something here? I’m not exactly sure why Hosmer is priced so low, but I’m not going to complain. Averaging 12.1 FPPG over his last ten games, Hosmer has gone 16-39 with two home runs and 14 RBIs. Even better, is that he’s hitting righties extremely well, owning a .436 wOBA and a .600 SLG. I truly don’t understand why he’s priced so well, but just roll with it and don’t ask questions.
Stack Em Up
LAD vs. ATL (Bud Norris) – Norris is getting a spot start in the rotation due to Mike Foltynewicz going on the DL, not because he’s pitched so well that he deserves it. Norris was crushed while in the rotation earlier this season, getting his demotion to the bullpen. The Dodgers aren’t exactly crushing the ball against righties, owning a .300 wOBA and a .376 SLG, but against Norris, anyone can look like they’re crushing the ball. Norris may very well be on a pitch count because of his bullpen work, which works in favor for the Dodgers even more, as the Braves bullpen has a 4.22 team ERA, ranked 23rd in the league.