Halfway through the week and still plenty of baseball still left to play. We continued our hot streak of picks last night as Chris Archer got us 46.40 points and Freddie Freeman had 12. Today is a split slate with five games this afternoon and 11 tonight. Let’s jump right into things and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Heaviest Pitcher Favorites
John Lackey vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-160) – This game falls in the afternoon slate, as Lackey takes on one of the worst hitting teams in the league, the Brewers. The Brewers rank last in batting average at .227, 26th in runs and 28th in team OPS. Lackey has been solid this season posting a 2.83 ERA with 47 strikeouts in 63 innings pitched.
Rick Porcello vs. Minnesota Twins (-158) – Ok well, I don’t know if I agree with this one. Let me look over my numbers again, yeah I still don’t like it. Porcello owns a 5.37 ERA on the year going up against the Twins who are scoring a lot of runs and have a .257 team average. Maybe it’s because the Twins don’t hit a lot of home runs, 25th in the league, that Vegas like’s this pick? Porcello has already given up 11 on the season. I’m honestly really looking for a reason to like this one.
James Shields vs. New York Mets (-153) Well, we all know I love Shields. He leads in the league in swings and misses and he’s been striking out guys left and right. He has an 11.6 K/9 on the year, which is one of the highest in the league. The Mets are near the bottom of the league in team batting average and runs scored.
Top Overall Game Over/Unders
L.A. Dodgers at Colorado Rockies (Coors Field ) – 10.5 Over/Under – Typical Coors Field projection. Mike Bolsinger goes up against Chad Bettis on this one. Bolsinger has been lights out this season while Bettis hasn’t been too shabby either. Bettis has delivered three straight quality starts, two of those coming at Coors Field. So while the pitching sounds like it could be solid tonight, it’s always a good idea to target some hitters in this one.
Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox (Fenway Park) – 9 Over/Under – Again, I truly don’t understand how Porcello is on the heavy favorites tonight, but I’m just a guy with an iPad questioning the multi billion dollar conglomerate known as Vegas. As I mentioned, the long ball has been a huge problem for Porcello, as he’s given up 11 on the season and five in this last three starts. May has struggled against lefties this season who hit him at .315.
Toughest Left/Right Matchups
Toughest Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
Cole Hamels vs. Cincinnati Reds- Hamels starts us off with his .138 avearge against lefties. His K/9 as usual, is high on the season, sitting at 9.2.
Hector Santiago vs. Tampa Bay Rays – Santiago has been fantastic this season, and much can be the same about how he performs against lefties. They’re only hitting .176 against him this season. He also owns an 8.3 K/9.
Toughest Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
Francisco Liriano vs. San Francisco Giants – Liriano has been pitching like the Liriano of old lately. Against righties, they’re only hitting .175 against him. His K/9 is fantastic, at 11.3.
Mike Bolsinger vs. Colorado Rockies – I told you that Bolsinger has been tough this season. Righties are only hitting .185 off of him this seaon. His K/9 sits at 7.2 on the year.
Best Left/Right Matchups
Easiest Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
Jon Lester vs. Miami Marlins- Another go around in the rotation and Lester is still here. His struggles against lefties continues as they’re hitting .340 against him this year. He owns an 8.8 K/9.
Dillon Gee vs. San Diego Padres– Gee has been getting hit hard against lefties, as they’re holding him to a .333 clip. Lucky for him, the Padres are very right handed heavy in their lineup. He owns a 5.9 K/9 on the year.
Easiest Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
Anibal Sanchez vs. Oakland A’s – Sanchez continue to struggle this season, as righties have been giving him a lot of trouble. They’re hitting .302 off of him this season. His strikeouts are still high, however, at 9.1.
Nick Martinez vs. Chicago White Sox– Martinez has been great this season, but righties has been getting on base against him. They’re hitting .298 against him, but Martinez has been keeping the damage to a minimum. He’s only allowed three runs or less in 16 straight starts.
Nolan Arenado ($5100) – Good production + Coors Field=$5100. Arenado is 10 for his last 29 with four home runs, 10 RBIs, and six runs scored.
Paul Goldschmidt ($5400) – Goldy takes his hot streak into this afternoons slate of games. He’s 12 for his last 23 with three home runs, six RBIs, and five runs scored.
Evan Gattis ($4300) – It feels like Gattis hitting a home run almost everyday, but that’s just simply not true. He’s 11 for his last 25 with three home runs, eight RBIs, and five runs scored.
Best Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
Dustin Pedroia vs. Phil Hughes – Ah yes, I remember show casing this one a week or so ago. It went quite well as Pedroia hit two home runs off of Hughes. So now, we’re here again. With the updated numbers, Pedroia is 13-38 off Hughest with five home runs and a 1.191 OPS. (yup, I had this in here yesterday. I totally screwed this up as Hughes is pitching today. So enjoy this bonus coverage of Pedroia vs. Hughes!)
Adam Rosales vs. Chris Sale – First things first (I’m a realist?) if you’re going to roster Rosales, please make sure he’s starting. It’s been very spratic. Now, the numbers. Rosales is 6-11 against Sale with three home runs and a 1.902 OPS. Oh, how about a 1.364 SLG? You alright? Want me to give you a minute? If Rosales isn’t in the lineup, we riot.
Mike Moustakas vs. Corey Kluber – Moustakas is 13-27 against Kluber with a home run and a 1.311 OPS. The Moose should most certainly be in the lineup, unlike my crush of the day, Rosales.
The Dodgers and Rockies may see a thunderstorm pass through. But it doesn’t look bad this morning. As always, watch this one.
One Pitcher To Build Lineups Around
Jon Lester ($9900) – Sure, the Marlins can hit. They’re 9th in the league with a .257 average. However, they can’t score runs. They’re 23rd in the league in runs scored. They also strike out a TON, as they’re 7th in the league in that aspect. Lester does struggle against lefties, but Miami is rolling out only three in their lineup usually, and none of them have much power. With his 1.76 ERA in the month of May, I’m damn comfortable rostering Lester tonight.
Superstar Worth Paying For…
Paul Goldschmidt ($5400) – No one has super numbers against a pitcher today or tonight that I love, so I’m going with Goldschmidt this afternoon because of how well he crushes RHP. He’s going up against Mie Foltynewicz who has been pitching well against righties, but Goldschmidt is hitting .352 against. 12 of his 15 home runs have come against righties and Goldy simply locked in right now. It may not be my most in depth pick, but I’m on it.
Save Big Bucks By Drafting…
Adam Rosales ($2400) – If you haven’t read my love letter for him above, please do so. After you read it, see that his price is $2400. If he starts, sit back and enjoy.