WATCH: MLB IN 90 SECONDS CARLOS CORREA


Friday night brings us a full 15-game slate of baseball. Let’s dive right into all the information, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Pitcher Favorite

Alex Wood vs. San Diego Padres – L.A. Dodgers ($11,700) – I wasn’t surprised to see the Dodgers and Alex Wood as a favorite tonight, since they have a very favorable matchup against the Padres. Wood continues to build upon his impressive season, posting a .239 wOBA with a .294 SLG with a 9.5 K/9 on the road. The Padres continue to stumble at the plate, especially at home, sporting a .296 home wOBA with a .385 SLG and a 24.6 K%. Even with his high price tag of $11,700, I fully expect Wood to be VERY popular tonight, as he’s been one of the most consistent pitchers this entire season.

Highest Total

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles – 10.5 projected runs – Two games are tied with a 10.5 run projection tonight, but the honor will go to the Rays and Orioles, with Tampa owning the highest run total of the night. At 5.7 runs, the Rays are scheduled to face Chris Tillman, who has been an absolute gas can on the mound this season. In six home starts, Tillman is averaging just 4.3 fantasy points per start with a .388 wOBA, a .504 SLG and five of his 10 home runs allowed. Over his last three starts, Tillman is allowing an absurd 51% hard hit contact with an average batted ball distance of 223 ft. This will be the second time Tillman has faced the Rays this season and naturally, the first start didn’t go so well. In 4.1 innings, Tillman allowed five runs (four earned) on eight hits with a 5:2 K:BB ratio.

Weather Concerns

San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (PNC Park) – Pittsburgh should be able to start the game on time, but they’ll have a threat of thunderstorms around the stadium midway through the game.

Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds (Great American Ballpark) – Rain will be on and off all throughout the night in Cincinnati. This is a tough one to nail down, so take a look closer to game time.

Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Busch Stadium) – As of this morning, this game featured a high chance of rain during play, which could cause some lengthy delays. Out of all the games tonight, this could be the one to keep an eye on weather wise.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Chase Field – Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – The Rockies will visit Chase Field this weekend, which is most favorable ballpark for hitters tonight. All offensive categories are favored here.
  • Miller Park – Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers – Miller Park is our second most favorable ballpark for hitters tonight. All offensive categories except for triples are favored.
  • Minute Maid Park – New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros – Minute Maid Park is our worst ballpark for hitters tonight. Home runs are the only favored category here.
  • Busch Stadium – Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Busch Stadium is the second worst ballpark for hitters tonight. Triples are the only category that get the nod here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Chris Tillman1.081.388Mike Montgomery.502.217
Mike Foltynewicz.906.333Robbie Ray.507.220
Gerrit Cole.887.284Alex Wood.514.205

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Chris Tillman.959.348Alex Wood.480.175
Josh Tomlin.894.320Jacob Faria.566.191
Clayton Richard.863.306Austin Bibens-Dirkx.593.200

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Carlos CorreaMichael Pineda105.5
Kendrys MoralesDoug Fister222.63
Evan LongoriaChris Tillman662.59

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Lance McCullers – HOU vs. NYY – $8,800 – It’s been quite a rare occurrence that I’d recommend a pitcher against this dangerous Yankee offense, but McCullers is an exception today. He’s recently returned from the disabled list and posted a stellar line against the Mariners. In that game, McCullers was pulled after five innings due to a pitch count but he still managed to strike out eight while allowing one run on four hits. The Yankees are a bit beat up at the moment, and with a healthy lineup, McCullers managed to 29.1 fantasy points against them with six innings of shut out baseball while striking out seven. His salary of $8,800 is the biggest reason for me gravitating towards him, but his strikeout potential doesn’t hurt either.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Corey Dickerson – TB vs. BAL – $4,900 –  This is a great spot for Dickerson tonight, taking on Chris Tillman. Tillman has been whacked by lefties especially hard this season, as he owns an overall .463 wOBA against them with a .576 SLG with three of his 10 home runs allowed. Dickerson has been crushing right-handed pitching on the road, posting a .423 wOBA with a .608 SLG with six of his 17 home runs.

Save Big by Drafting…

Brandon Belt – SFG vs. PIT – $3,700 – It’s been no secret that Gerrit Cole has struggled against left-handed hitting, so grabbing Belt tonight certainly makes sense. On the season, Cole owns a .368 wOBA against lefties with a .574 SLG with 12 of his 17 home runs allowed. Belt isn’t sporting great overall numbers but is posting a .369 wOBA against righties with a .497 SLG with 11 of his 14 home runs. Belt is averaging 10.1 fantasy points over his last 10 games with three home runs, two triples and a double.

Stack Em Up

Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians (Josh Tomlin) – With a couple of obvious stacks to choose from tonight, I think the Tigers have a real chance of being overlooked. Detroit owns a .348 wOBA at Comerica Park with a .473 SLG and a .346 OBP. Tomlin has had a relatively easy road schedule, so I think his .309 wOBA is a bit deceiving. Overall, Tomlin has a .366 wOBA this season with a .529 SLG and a .340 OBP.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.