Monday was a good night if you took Jacob deGrom. He smoked the Padres for only two hits in eight innings. I hope you all had him in your lineup last night (I mean, I did tell you.) We’ve been on a bit of roll with picks as of late, so lets hope today is more of the same. Let’s jump right into things and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Heaviest Pitcher Favorites
Max Scherzer vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-221) – Scherzer gets the start against Marco Estrada tonight in a day night double header for both teams. Scherzer is always a huge favorite against any team he faces. He owns a 1.51 ERA on the season to go along with 85 strikeouts in 71 innings pitched. Scherzer is no stranger to the American League and has a 1.98 ERA at Rogers Centre.
Johnny Cueto vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-146) – Cueto will make his start after throwing a successful bullpen session on Sunday. Cueto gets a great matchup against the year long struggling Phillies, who are hitting .237 as a team and are last in runs scored, OPS, and home runs.
Clay Buchholz vs. Minnesota Twins (-159) Well if you were just SO disappointed that you didn’t get to play Buchholz yesterday, your big chance is tonight. It’s always a pick your poison on which Buchholz will show up, but you truly can go from one extreme to the next. Just be cautious, the Twins have been hitting much better as of late.
Top Overall Game Over/Unders
Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers (Ballpark At Arlington ) – 9 Over/Under – Texas continues to be projected in the highest run totals of the night. Jeff Samardzija matches up against Colby Lewis in this one. Lewis is having his struggles against lefties, who are hitting him at .313 on the season. Samardzija just hasn’t seemed like himself either, so I can’t say I disagree with this projection. Texas is 8th in the league in home runs and 2nd in runs scored.
Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks (Minute Maid Park) – 8.5 Over/Under – When you compare Shelby Miller and Josh Collmenter, who do you think is more likely to fall apart here? If you answered Miller, you can go back to bed or something. While the Braves aren’t the best hitting club in the league, Collmenter might as well be a chef with the amount of meatballs he serves up. Righties are hitting .308 against him and lefties .309. Atlanta might be a decent stack on the night.
Toughest Left/Right Matchups
Toughest Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
C.J. Wilson vs. Tampa Bay Rays- Wilson kicks us off here as he’s been toughest against lefties on the day. They’re only hitting .188 against him on the season. His K/9 is at a respectable 6.8.
Zack Greinke vs. Colorado Rockies – Greinke has been tough against everyone this year, as lefties are no exception. They’re only hitting .189 against him with his K/9 at 7.8.
Toughest Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
Max Scherzer vs. Toronto Blue Jays – Speaking of someone who is tough against everyone, Scherzer has been lights out. Against righties, they’re only hitting .172 against him. His K/9, as expected, as at 10.7.
Alfredo Simon vs. Oakland A’s – Detroit says, who needs Max Scherzer when you have Alfredo Simon!? Against righties, Simon has held them to a .173 averge. Only one point higher than Scherzer! However, the K/9 isn’t nearly as good at 6. So close, Simon. So close.
Best Left/Right Matchups
Easiest Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
Sean O’ Sullivan vs. Cincinnati Reds- Someone might want to inform O’Sullivan that the name of the game is to try to get the batters out. Against lefties, he doesn’t seem to be doing that. They’re hitting an astounding .372 off of him. Oh boy….
Jeremy Guthrie vs. Cleveland Indians– It makes you wonder if O’Sullivan and Guthrie shared off season plans or something. Lefties are hitting Guthrie to a .359 average. I mean, pay me and I can give you those numbers.
Easiest Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
C.C. Sabathia va. Seattle Mariners – Sabathia finally might be breaking down after years of being a work horse. Righties are hitting him at a .345 clip on the season. His K/9 is good though, at 7.6.
Josh Collmenter vs. Atlanta Braves– Collmenter as I mentioned really doesn’t do well against any type of batter, but righties give him the most trouble. They’re hitting .308 against him and all hope seems to be lost.
Albert Pujols ($4100) – Nice to see Pujols on this list. He’s 11 for his last 27 with five home runs, nine RBIs, and seven runs scored. He gets a tough matchup against Chris Archer tonight.
Todd Frazier ($5100) – He may not win a batting title anytime soon, but man can this guy smash a ball. He’s 10 for his last 18 with three home runs, five RBIs, and six runs scored. He’s first and third base eligible, which makes him so much more valuable.
Chris Davis ($4400) – Davis hasn’t been hitting very well this season, but as of late, he’s doing better. He’s 8 for his last 26 with four home runs, nine RBIs, and five runs scored.
Best Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
Dustin Pedroia vs. Phil Hughes – Ah yes, I remember show casing this one a week or so ago. It went quite well as Pedroia hit two home runs off of Hughes. So now, we’re here again. With the updated numbers, Pedroia is 13-38 off Hughest with five home runs and a 1.191 OPS.
Freddie Freeman vs. Josh Collmenter – Freeman has great numbers against Collmenter (shocking.) Freeman is 8-15 against him with a home run and a 1.400 OPS. More on Freeman in just a minute.
Jose Bautista vs. Max Scherzer – Scherzer can’t defeat everyone. Bautista seems to have him figured out. Bautista is 11-22 against him with two home runs and a 1.749 OPS.
The Reds and Phillies might have some rain during game time. However, as of this morning, it doesn’t look like a real threat. Just keep an eye on this one.
One Pitcher To Build Lineups Around
Chris Archer ($8900) –Wow, look at all these high priced good pitchers tonight, I think I’ll takeeeeeee, OH, Chris Archer! Priced at an extremely cheap $8900, Archer is my number one pick. He’s taking on an Angels team that is near the bottom of the barrel in average at .239, almost dead last in the league in OBP at .296 (only the Phillies and Brewers are worse.) They don’t strikeout a ton, but Archer is almost matchup proof, with a K/9 just below 11 at 10.9.
Superstar Worth Paying For…
Freddie Freeman ($4800) – It had to be someone against Collmenter, I’ve been ripping him up this article. Freeman has a lot of numbers that fall in his favor tonight for me to really like him. Freeman is hitting .297 against righties with six of his seven home runs coming against them. Collmenter is giving up 1.4 home runs per start. If you needed anymore stats, of the 65 career home runs Collmenter has given up, 37 of them have come at home, the site of tonight’s matchup.
Save Big Bucks By Drafting…
Gerardo Parra ($3000) – Priced at the every so nice $3000, Parra has some good numbers against Lance Lynn that could give you a nice sneaky play. He’s batting .500 against him, or 11-22, with two home runs and a 1.749 OPS. I’ll take my chances and roll with Parra tonight.