Friday night brings us a massive 14-game slate. Let’s dive right into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
L.A. Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers – Clayton Kershaw ($13,100) – Kershaw and the Dodgers are heavy favorites tonight as they take on the Brewers. The Brewers are tagged with the lowest projected total on the night with three runs. This is an interesting start tonight for Kershaw as he’s not only facing one of the best hitting clubs against lefties, but also one of the top in K% as well. When facing lefties, the Brewers sport a .335 wOBA with a .448 SLG and a .333 OBP. Regarding strikeouts, they sit in 3rd with a 25.4 K%. Kershaw is one of the most dominant pitchers in all of baseball, but I’d be lying if I said I was fully confident in him due to the matchup. Paying up the $13,100 certainly limits the rest of your roster selections, and with so many other good pitchers on this slate, I may be passing on him.
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds – 10 projected runs – The Braves vs. Reds showdown is the only game projected for 10 runs tonight as Mike Foltynewicz and Bronson Arroyo are set to take the hill. The Reds are slight favorites here with 5.2 projected runs, which is tied with the Tigers for the highest nightly total. Foltynewicz has been decent on the road thus far, posting a .319 wOBA with a .431 SLG, but he has allowed six of his nine home runs in that situation. The Reds are one of the best hitting clubs at home this season, posting a .340 wOBA with a .461 SLG. With so many good pitchers on the mound tonight, potentially limiting runs, this will certainly be a favorable game to target for hitters on both sides.
No weather concerns!
Now that we’ve entered the month of June, I’ll be switching over to the 2017 Park Factor stats.
Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.
- Miller Park – L.A. Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers – Miller Park is our number one ballpark on the night as the Brewers host the Dodgers. So far this season, all offensive categories except triples are favored here.
- Angel Stadium of Anaheim – Minnesota Twins vs. L.A. Angels – Historically a pitchers’ park, Angel Stadium is our number two ballpark on the night for hitters. All offensive categories except doubles are favored here.
- Citi Field – Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets – Citi Field checks in as our least favorable ballpark for hitters tonight. Walks are the only offensive category favoring hitters.
- Camden Yards – Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles – Camden Yards is our second least favorable park for hitters. Like Citi Field, walks are the only category favored here thus far in 2017.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Bronson Arroyo||1.051||.294||Dallas Keuchel||.315||.114|
|Kyle Gibson||.986||.333||Derek Holland||.436||.184|
|Jason Vargas||.909||.354||Andrew Triggs||.455||.157|
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Christian Bergman||1.068||.367||Clayton Kershaw||.552||.205|
|Kyle Gibson||.968||.325||Jason Vargas||.556||.202|
|Jose Urena||.944||.304||Dallas Keuchel||.567||.203|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Salvador Perez||Josh Tomlin||35||2.54|
|Anthony Rizzo||Lance Lynn||32||2.46|
|Mark Trumbo||Rick Porcello||29||2.27|
*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)
Pitcher to Build Around
Stephen Strasburg – WAS vs. OAK – $12,000 – Taking Strasburg over Kershaw not only brings you a safer matchup but saves you $1,100 in salary. Strasburg will be pitching in the Oakland Coliseum against an A’s team that owns a 24.2 K% at home. The A’s have hit well at home, owning a .334 wOBA and a .470 SLG, but I love how Strasburg has looked as of late in two easy matchups against the Padres and Braves. Strasburg has been his best on the road thus far and racked up a K/9 of 10 in those games.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Joey Votto – CIN vs. ATL – $5,200 – Picking from the highest projected game of the night, Votto is my favorite hitter as he takes on Mike Foltynewicz. At home, Votto owns a .447 wOBA against righties with a .617 SLG and a .482 OBP with four of his 14 home runs. As I mentioned, Folty has been decent on the road thus far, but he has allowed two of his six road homers to lefties while they sport a .327 wOBA.
Save Big by Drafting…
Kole Calhoun – LAA vs. MIN – $2,600 – Calhoun doesn’t have very attractive overall numbers, that’s a given. However, $2,600 for someone who bats near the top of the order and facing Kyle Gibson? I’ll take it. As you may know, Gibson is getting demolished on the mound this season, posting a .419 wOBA against lefties with four home runs and a .577 SLG. On a night where pitching is at a premium, Calhoun could be a nice salary relief for your roster.
Stack Em Up
Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Patrick Corbin) – Honestly, I can’t tell if this is going to be a popular stack or not, but my gut says it won’t be. The Marlins are taking on Patrick Corbin and his atrocious road numbers tonight. In 20 innings on the road, Corbin owns a .422 wOBA with a .626 SLG with five of his 11 home runs allowed. The Marlins continue to be one of the best hitting clubs against lefties, owning a .346 wOBA with a .456 SLG and a .355 OBP. I think this Marlins club can do some serious damage tonight.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.