WATCH: MLB IN 90 SECONDS MATT DAVIDSON


Wednesday night brings us a huge 13-game slate of baseball. Let’s dive right into all the information, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Pitcher Favorite

Marcus Stroman vs. Baltimore Orioles – Toronto Blue Jays ($9,000) – Pitching is certainly not going to drain your salary tonight, as Stroman is the fourth most expensive at just $9K. He and the Blue Jays are heavy favorites as they take on the Orioles, an offense that is starting to turn it back on as of late. Over the past two weeks, the Orioles have picked it up at the plate, posting a .345 wOBA, good for ninth in the league. Aside from being picked apart by the Rangers in his last start, Stroman has been solid on the mound as of late, posting a .322 wOBA and a .468 SLG in the month of June. What does worry me, however, aside from the Orioles hitting better, is that Stroman is allowing a 48% hard hit rate over his last three starts. The Orioles have been doing the same, with a 35% rate over the past two weeks. Stroman could be relatively popular across the board tonight, but I believe this could end up being a fairly rough start for him.

Highest Total

Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox – 10.5 projected runs – The Twins and Red Sox are once again involved in the highest projected run total of the night as they continue their four-game series. The Red Sox currently own a six-run projection as they face off against Adalberto Mejia. On the road he’s posted some decent numbers, owning a .309 wOBA with a .381 SLG. Keep in mind, however, this is a sample size of just 17.2 innings. Meija has trouble staying deep into games, as he hasn’t seen past the fifth inning in four straight starts. Taking all this into consideration and factoring in that the Twins have one of the worst bullpens in the league, the Red Sox should make for a fine stack tonight.

Weather Concerns

New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox (Guaranteed Rate Park) – They should be able to fit this game in, even with some rain later in the night. Before setting your lineups, take a quick peek at the latest forecast.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Chase Field – St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Chase Field is our number one ballpark for hitters tonight. All offensive categories are favored here.
  • Progressive Field – Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Indians – Progressive Field checks in as our number two ballpark for hitters on a relatively weak night for favorable park factors. Runs, singles and home runs have all been favored here.
  • Minute Maid Park – Oakland A’s vs. Houston Astros – Minute Maid Park is our worst ballpark for hitters tonight. Only home runs have been favored here this season.
  • Marlins Park – New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins – Marlins Park is our second worst ballpark for hitters tonight. Walks are the only category favored here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Hyun-Jin Ryu1.100.356Wade Miley.560.171
Jeff Locke1.033.320Blake Snell.584.226
Daniel Norris.896.269Marcus Stroman.611.247

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Bartolo Colon1.014.368Zack Godley.526.195
Masahiro Tanaka.910.292Yu Darvish.609.190
Rick Porcello.891.332Ivan Nova.619.231

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Edwin EncarnacionYu Darvish192.42
Evan LongoriaIvan Nova382.15

(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Masahiro Tanaka – NYY vs. CWS – $8,300 – I know this seems a bit crazy, but I like Tanaka tonight against the White Sox. He’s been wildly inconsistent this season, we can’t deny that. However, one stat is encouraging to see, and that’s how many swings and misses he’s induced as of late. In four June starts, Tanaka has faced the Red Sox, Angels, A’s and Rangers and had three, 14, 18 and 22 swings and misses in those starts. He’ll face a White Sox team that owns a .322 wOBA at home and a 21.9 K%.  At a $8,300 salary, Tanaka certainly brings tremendous upside and most likely at low ownership. He’s not the safest option, but I like the potential in a favorable matchup.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Paul Goldschmidt – ARI vs. STL – $5,600 – With pitching relatively cheap tonight, paying up for Goldy shouldn’t be much of a problem. He’s taking on Adam Wainwright, who hasn’t exactly done well on the road. Against righties, Wainwright is posting a .443 wOBA with a .625 SLG with three of his nine home runs allowed. As you’d imagine, Goldschmidt is crushing righties at home, posting a .497 wOBA with a .717 SLG with seven of his 18 home runs.

Save Big by Drafting…

Dustin Pedroia – BOS vs. MIN – $3,200 – Pedroia is dirt cheap tonight and is in a matchup he has excelled in over his entire career. I’ll omit his results for 2017, as he has only 12 at-bats against lefties at home (he’s 6/12) and focus on his career numbers. Since 2006, Pedroia is sporting a .411 wOBA against lefties at home with a .528 SLG and a .425 OBP. That is VERY impressive when given the amount of time that covers. At just $3,200, he’s tough to pass on.

Stack Em Up

Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Marcus Stroman) – Stroman may be favored tonight, but I’m doubling down from earlier in thinking Stroman gets hit tonight. The Orioles lineup has been hitting better as I mentioned and are currently ninth in the league in hard-hit percentage over the past two weeks. If you take their 1-5 hitters (Smith, Machado, Schoop, Jones, Trumbo), you still have an average of $6,300 per player to fill in the rest of your lineup. A stack that cheap certainly gives you some great upside.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.