A full 15 game slate of games is on tap for today. Let’s get you set for tonight, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
CHC (-270) vs. CIN – Jon Lester – Same favorites, different day it feels like as of late. Jon Lester takes the mound against the Reds tonight, as the Cubs get the nod as the favorites on this 15-game slate. This will be the third start of the season agains the Reds for Lester, as he’s pitched 13 innings, allowing four runs on 10 hits with a 9:3 K:BB ratio. As you can see, nothing mind blowing here in those two starts. With that being said, the Reds continue to be one of the worst teams against left-handed pitching this season, owning a .311 wOBA with a .308 OBP and a 22.2 K%. You may have noticed that Lester doesn’t have a very strong strikeout rate against this team, which shouldn’t come as a huge surprise, as his K/9 on the road dips from 10.2 at home to 7.5. All in all, I think the case can be made to both use and fade Lester, as he’s the second most expensive pitcher on this slate at $11,700, but he’s been strongest on the road, and this matchup isn’t all that daunting.
ARZ (-220) vs. PHI – Zack Greinke – – A decent spot here for Greinke, as he takes on the Phillies at home tonight. I only say decent because Greinke has not been very good at home this season. Coming into tonight, he owns a 5.06 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP while averaging only 12.6 FPPG in 10 starts. In the same respect, this is not a good hitting offense he’s facing today, and pitched very well against them on the road. In that start, Greinke went eight innings allowing one run on three hits with a 6:1 K:BB ratio. Against other teams, I would be a bit concerned about this spot for him, but I think he should do just fine here. His $10,600 price tag isn’t that bad either, and I think he makes for a good play here tonight.
TOR vs. COL – 12.5 runs – – For a little while last night, it looked as if Coors Field was going to be a real dud on the night as the game was 1-0 all the way into the sixth inning, and then the wheels came off. The final score ended up in favor of the Rockies at 9-5. I don’t think we’ll have to worry about all the scoring coming late in the game in this one tonight. J.A. Happ and Eddie Butler will take the mound tonight. Both teams are hitting their opposing pitchers well, as the Blue Jays own a .331 wOBA against righties and the Rockies a .332 against lefties. As always, it wouldn’t hurt to take a look a this one, especially the Blue Jays in my opinion.
NYM vs. WAS (Nationals Park) – This game will have a chance of thunderstorms all throughout the night, so it doesn’t look as if a delay would really help the matter. Keep an eye on this one as we get closer to first pitch.
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Any category that favors hitters has a rating of 1.000 or higher, anything below 1.000 favors pitchers.
- Coors Field – TOR vs COL – Like you didn’t know this already. Coors Field ranks as the number one park for hitters with a favorable rating in every offensive category.
- Kauffman Stadium – STL vs KCR – Kauffman Stadium currently ranks third for hitters in the 2016 season. Coming into tonight, it has a favorable rating in runs, singles, doubles, triples and walks.
- Tropicana Field – BOS vs TBR – Currently ranked as the second worst stadium for hitters this season, Tropicana does not have a single category favoring hitters.
- Safeco Field – PIT vs SEA – Safeco is always near the bottom of the list when it comes to hitters. So far this season, the only category favored for hitters has been home runs.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Ubaldo Jimenez||1.021||.352||Jose Quintana||.515||.209|
|Cody Anderson||.987||.347||Jon Lester||.561||.210|
|Eddie Butler||.970||.321||Corey Kluber||.628||.222|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Erik Johnson||1.397||.415||Corey Kluber||.562||.210|
|Jonathon Niese||.916||.308||Jon Lester||.602||.214|
|Cody Anderson||.914||.333||CC Sabathia||.618||.235|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Giancarlo Stanton||Mike Pelfrey||19||3.47|
|Martin Prado||Mike Pelfrey||22||3|
|Matt Kemp||Ubaldo Jimenez||41||2|
- We start off with Stanton against Pelfrey, as this couldn’t have come at a better time for Stanton. He’s really starting to heat up at the plate, and this matchup certainly won’t hurt, as he’s 9-19 against Pelfrey with two doubles, two home runs and three RBIs.
- Next we have another Marlin against Pelfrey. Martin Prado is 10-22 with six doubles, a home run, three RBIs and three walks.
- Finally, we jump over to the Padres and Orioles, which will see Matt Kemp take on Ubaldo Jimenez. Kemp has gone 14-41 against Jimenez with three doubles, a triple, two home runs, six RBIs and five walks.
Pitcher to Build Around
Zack Greinke – ARZ vs PHI – $10,600 I think Greinke is priced perfectly for this matchup, and anything higher than where he’s at now may have me off of him. His numbers at home are not very impressive, but I’m quite confident he should be able to handle this Phillies team tonight. Pitching at Citizen Bank Park his first time against them isn’t exactly a pitchers park, which makes me feel comfortable taking him here. It also doesn’t hurt that the last two starts, against other weak offenses in the Rays and Dodgers at home where very successful as well. Those two starts combined saw Greinke go 16 innings allowing no runs on seven hits with a 13:2 K:BB ratio. I’d fire up Greinke with confidence tonight.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Manny Machado – BAL vs. SDP (Erik Johnson) – $5,000 – I understand we have a game going at Coors Field tonight, but Petco Park may feel like it tonight with Ubaldo Jimenez and Erik Johnson pitching. Machado gets a fantastic matchup tonight against a pitcher this is averaging 4.1 HR/9 this season. Five starts, and an average of four home runs per nine innings. Machado has been great against right-handed pitching this season, owning a .406 wOBA with a .605 SLG and a .283 ISO. I think Baltimore should be a big part of your lineup tonight.
Save Big by Drafting…
Alex Rodriguez – NYY vs. TEX (Cole Hamels) – $3,200 – I don’t hate this price for A-Rod one bit. I think he still has something in the tank, and he has a decent matchup tonight at home. On the season, A-Rod owns a .356 wOBA against lefties with a .510 SLG and a .235 ISO. Hamels is certainly no stranger to giving up some home runs, as he’s allowed 15 on the season. To get someone with some power in a good hitting ballpark at this price is always extremely valuable in my eyes. I’ll take a shot with Rodriguez at $3,200.
Stack Em Up
BAL vs. SDP (Erik Johnson) – What more can be said about Johnson and how poorly he’s pitched? I mean it’s almost become laughable at this point. He’s only pitched one home game so far this season, but I don’t think it makes much of a difference anymore. The Orioles have hit 52 home runs on the road this season, which ranks 8th in the league. Granted, Petco Park is no Camden Yards, but it may feel that way if Johnson continues to pitch like he has been. For as much as I’d like to get creative with a stack on this slate, Baltimore is way too enticing.