WATCH: MLB IN 90 SECONDS JUSTIN TURNER


Tuesday night brings us a full 15-game slate of baseball. Let’s dive right into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Pitcher Favorite

Kenta Maeda vs. L.A. Angels – L.A. Dodgers ($7,700) – The Dodgers are heavily favored tonight as they take on the Angels at Dodger Stadium. Maeda will be toeing the mound tonight with a .279 wOBA at home with a .386 SLG and an 8.6 K/9. The Angels are currently one of the worst teams on the road, even though they did quite well against the Yankees recently. Overall, the Angels are posting a .297 wOBA with a .313 OBP and a 21.7 K%. Maeda has been bouncing between the starting rotation and bullpen as of late, and it seems to have gotten him back on track. He’s made only four appearances in this month, but they’ve amounted to a .240 wOBA in 14 innings. On paper, he certainly has a favorable matchup, and you can’t argue his discount salary either.

Highest Total

Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox – 10.5 projected runs – The Twins and Red Sox are tied with Orioles and Blue Jays for the highest projected total of the night, but the Red Sox own the highest team total on this slate at 6.3 runs. Hector Santiago takes the mound for the first time since June 6th and brings his ugly road numbers with him. In five road starts, Santiago sports a .345 wOBA with a .427 SLG and a .364 OBP. Santiago is no stranger to the home run ball either, allowing 14 on the season. While I thought the run projection against Jose Berrios at 5.3 was high last night, I think the Sox have a legitimate chance to do some damage tonight.

Weather Concerns

Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox (Fenway Park) – This game could have some rain off the jump, but should clear out soon after.

8Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Indians (Progressive Field)* – Rain could linger around the stadium here tonight, which could potentially cause a delay. The chance seems fairly low, but it’s worth noting nonetheless.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Chase Field – St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Chase Field is our number one ballpark for hitters tonight. All offensive categories are favored here.
  • Progressive Field – Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Indians – Progressive Field checks in as a positive ballpark for hitters. Runs, singles and home runs have all been favored here.
  • AT&T Park – Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants – As always, AT&T Park is a comfortable home for pitchers. No offensive categories get the nod at this stadium.
  • Minute Maid Park – Oakland A’s vs. Houston Astros – Minute Maid Park is our second worst ballpark for hitters tonight. Only home runs have been favored here this season.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Hector Santiago1.608.500Sean Manaea.430.135
Drew Pomeranz.997.357Jeff Hoffman.473.186
Jhoulys Chacin.944.308James Paxton.487.194

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Kevin Gausman.989.371Max Scherzer.386.124
Jesse Chavez.925.296Carlos Martinez.515.172
Robert Gsellman.893.322Joe Biagini.574.219

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Salvador PerezJustin Verlander552.3
Mark ReynoldsMatt Cain302.1

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Max Scherzer – WAS vs. CHC – $13,000 – I hate to go with the obvious here, but not showcasing Scherzer would be silly at this point. Over his last six starts, Scherzer has scored at least 30 fantasy points, averaging 39.5 fantasy points in that span with a 69:8 K:BB ratio. Even more impressive, he’s allowed just five runs in those five starts. He’ll face the Cubs at Wrigley Field tonight, who are posting a .326 wOBA at home with a .329 OBP and a 21.1 K%. Scherzer is the most expensive pitcher on this slate, but he’ll be very hard to leave on the board.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Logan Morrison – TB vs. PIT – $4,900 – Morrison has been crushing the ball as of late and is in line for another plus opportunity tonight against Trevor Williams. Aside from the fact that he’s averaging 11.7 fantasy points over his last 10 games, Morrison has been crushing righties on the road. Morrison is sporting a .476 wOBA on the road against righties with a .764 SLG with 10 of his 22 home runs.

Save Big by Drafting…

Mitch Moreland – BOS vs. MIN – $3,700 – Moreland hasn’t been crushing the ball lately, but every hit he does get feels like a big one. Averaging just 6.7 fantasy points over his last 10 games, Moreland has three home runs in that span, with all of them coming over his last three games. With a very favorable matchup against Hector Santiago and his .370 wOBA at home, Moreland is a great cheap option to consider tonight.

Stack Em Up

Houston Astros vs. Oakland A’s (Sean Manaea) – I don’t like Manaea in this matchup tonight against one of the best hitting clubs against left-handed pitching. On the season, the Astros own a .339 wOBA against them with a .452 SLG with a .343 OBP. Manaea hasn’t been particularly bad as of late, but the month of June has been his worst this season, with a 42% hard hit rate allowed over his last three starts. A Houston stack will be a bit expensive, which could bring down their ownership overall on the night.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.