Monday night brings us a short six-game slate of baseball. Let’s dive right into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Pitcher Favorite

Chris Sale vs. Minnesota Twins – Boston Red Sox ($12,900) – The Red Sox are the heavy favorites tonight taking on Jose Berrios and the Minnesota Twins. Sale will toe the mound tonight as he’ll pitch against this Twins club for the second time this season. In their first matchup at Target Field, Sale lasted six innings allowing four runs on four hits with a 10:3 K:BB ratio, good for 24.7 fantasy points. The Twins have the lowest run projection on this slate at 3.4 runs, as they enter this game with a .314 wOBA against lefties with a .391 SLG and a 19.9 K%. Sale seems to be getting back on track as of late, throwing 16.1 innings over his last two starts allowing four runs on eight hits with a 20:2 K:BB ratio against the Royals and Phillies.

Highest Totals

New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox – 10.5 projected runs – The Yankees own the highest projected run total of the night at 5.9, jumping up this morning from the original 5.5. They’ll be facing off against David Holmberg, who up to this point, has pitched very well for the White Sox. Holmberg has been worked in the bullpen as well as starting, and has five starts under his belt thus far. In those starts, he’s posting a .319 wOBA with a .418 SLG with three of his 10 home runs allowed. Over his last three starts, however, Holmberg is allowing a 43% hard hit rate, which is a 5% jump from his average on the year. Going up against one of the best offenses in the league, Holmberg has quite the task in front of him tonight.

Weather Concerns

Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Indians (Progressive Field) – We could see a delay here tonight as rain will be on and off all throughout the night. It doesn’t look overly concerning, but it’s worth checking out before first pitch.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Progressive Field – Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Indians – Progressive Field checks in as our number one ballpark for hitters on a relatively weak night for favorable park factors. Heading into this series, runs, singles and home runs have all been favored here.
  • Fenway Park – Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox – Fenway Park is our number two ballpark for hitters tonight. Singles, home runs and walks are favored here in 2017.
  • AT&T Park – Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants – As always, AT&T Park is home to the pitchers. No offensive categories get the nod at this stadium.
  • Dodger Stadium – L.A. Angels vs. L.A. Dodgers – Dodger Stadium is always near the bottom of the barrel when it comes to favorable offensive conditions. Runs are the only category that gets the nod here.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Rich Hill.959.286David Holmberg.364.148
Ricky Nolasco.865.274Gio Gonzalez.467.176
Jeff Samardzija.804.262Chris Sale.588.192

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Ricky Nolasco.943.321Jose Berrios.492.168
Gio Gonzalez.767.247Chris Sale.547.202
Jeff Samardzija.725.268Carlos Carrasco.569.211

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Ian DesmondJeff Samardzija212.8
Brian DozierChris Sale382.31

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Chris Sale – BOS vs. MIN – $12,900 – Tonight is essentially Chris Sale, Carlos Carrasco and then everyone else. As I mentioned earlier, Sale seems to be getting back on track after a bit of a rough patch earlier this month. He’s dropped his hard hit contact percentage by 5% over his last three starts, even if it was against the Royals, Phillies and Tigers. Sale has also been his best at Fenway Park, posting a .224 wOBA with a .287 SLG and a K/9 of 11.4.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Justin Turner – LAD vs. LAA – $4,600 – All this guy does is hit, he doesn’t stop! Turner is averaging 13.9 fantasy points over his last 10 games with three home runs, nine RBI and three doubles. He faces off against Ricky Nolasco tonight, who is allowing a .398 wOBA to righties on the road with a .620 SLG with eight of his 25 home runs allowed. Until he cools off a bit, Turner has to be considered on a nightly basis.

Save Big by Drafting…

Brian Goodwin – WAS vs. CHC – $3,800 – Goodwin has been swinging a hot bat as of late, belting three home runs, seven RBI and three doubles over his last 10 games. He’s facing off against Eddie Butler, who is allowing a .329 wOBA and a .404 SLG. While he’s still cheap, Goodwin is a nice value bat to throw into your lineup tonight.

Stack Em Up

Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees (Jordan Montgomery) – At this point, it’s hard to deny how well the White Sox hit left-handed pitching. Coming into the night, they own a .362 wOBA, which leads the league and by a good margin. The Cubs are currently in second at .347, so you can see how well this Chicago team is hitting lefties. Besides the wOBA, the White Sox sport a .474 SLG and a .370 OBP. This White Sox stack will be dirt cheap and could pair nicely with Sale as your SP.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.