A full 15 game slate of games is on tap for today. Let’s get you set for tonight, and as always; you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24

 

Game Notes

SFG (-280) vs. PHI – Johnny Cueto – Second day in a row where the Giants are the heavy favorites over the Phillies today. Johnny Cueto will take the mound in this one, as he continues to have a fantastic season for the Giants. Coming into this start pitching at home, Cueto owns a 1.95 ERA in seven starts with a 0.90 WHIP and a 7.8 K/9. This Phillies team continues to struggle all around, owning a .289 wOBA against righties with a .286 OBP and a .386 SLG. The Phillies were able to surprise Bumgarner last night, grabbing three runs off of him, but this was after he struck out seven on the night. Cueto should be a fine option for today.

LAD (-270) vs. PIT – Clayton Kershaw – – In what was perceived as a tough matchup for Kershaw his last time out against the Nationals; he proved why he’s the best in the league. Kershaw went seven innings allowing one run on six hits with an 8:0 K:BB ratio. He takes on the Pirates today who also have been hitting left-handed pitching well with a .331 wOBA with a .341 OBP. The extremely enticing part of this matchup is the K% the Pirates own. Owning a 24.9 K%, which ranks the second highest in the league, plays right into Kershaw wheelhouse. While the matchup as a whole may not be the easiest, we all know the ability Kershew possesses with the strikeouts and could rack up a seriously high score here.

Highest Totals

ARZ vs. COL – 12 runs – Ah yes, we continue the Coors Field trend for another day, as Patrick Corbin and Chad Bettis will take the mound for the Diamondbacks and the Rockies. With Corbin, he’s been the best on the road this season, owning a 2.68 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP. This is his second time facing the Rockies, where he pitched seven innings allowing four runs on eight hits with a 6:0 K:BB ratio. I still wouldn’t trust him in this spot, however.

A surprise to no one, Bettis hasn’t pitched well at home, owning a 5.79 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP and averaging only 10.9 FPPG in six starts. This will be the fourth time Bettis has faced the Diamondbacks this season with none of those starts really going well for him. Bettis has pitched 17.2 innings allowing 12 runs on 25 hits with a 16:3 K:BB ratio. As always, it is recommend to grab some exposure to this game.

Weather Concerns

CLE vs. DET (Comerica Park)- Nothing overly concerning here, but they could run into a thunderstorm late in the game. I wouldn’t worry about picking players in this game, but it’s worth a look come closer to game time.

SDP vs. CIN (Great American Ballpark)- Same situation as the Indians and Tigers, as this game will feature a thunderstorm near the tail end of the game. Keep an eye on this one.

TOR vs. CHW (U.S. Cellular Park)- This game will feature rain/thunderstorms all throughout the day, so this has a legitimate chance of having issues.


HOU vs. KCR (Kauffman Stadium)-
Rain will be prominent throughout this game that will get worse as the day progresses. I think if any game gets PPD, it will be this one.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Any category that favors hitters has a rating of 1.000 or higher, anything below 1.000 favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – ARZ vs COL – Like you didn’t know this already. Coors Field ranks as the number one park for hitters with a favorable rating in every offensive category.
  • Kauffman Stadium – HOU vs KCR – Kauffman Stadium currently ranks third for hitters in the 2016 season. Coming into tonight, it has a favorable rating in runs, singles, doubles and triples and walks.
  • Safeco Field – STL vs SEA – Safeco is always near the bottom of the league for hitters. So far this season, it only favors home runs.
  • Marlins Park – CHC vs MIA – Marlins Park currently ranks 21st in terms of ratings for hitters. So far this season, it does not have a single favorable rating for hitters.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Luis Perdomo.947.349Clayton Kershsaw.321.137
Nathan Eovaldi.911.298Martin Perez.471.161
Bud Norris.910.292Tanner Roark.593.204

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Luis Perdomo1.048.375Justin Verlander.419.232
Tyler Duffey.904.311Jose Fernandez.472.171
Sonny Gray .898.284Clayton Kershaw.494.186

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB
James LoneyBud Norris242.62
DJ LeMahieuPatrick Corbin252.48
Carlos SantanaJustin Verlander582.20

  • I’m happy to say, that after not showcasing a single BvP yesterday, we have three good ones for today. We start off with Loney taking on Norris. Loney is 14-24 with three doubles, a home run, four RBIs and three walks.
  • Next we have DJ LeMahieu against Patrick Corbin. Keep in mind this game will take place in Coors Field as well. LeMaehieu is 10-25 with two triples, two home runs and four RBIs.
  • Finally, we have Carlos Santana taking on Justin Verlander. Overall, Sanata does not hit Verlander well, but when he does, they’re big hits. Santana is 13-58 with two doubles, seven home runs, 11 RBIs and seven walks.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Clayton Kershaw – LAD vs PIT – $14,200 I know it’s the super obvious choice on the night, but I can’t get over the fact that Kershaw should easily slide into the double digit strikeout category here in this game. I mean, this is against a Pirates team that is second in the league in K% 24.9%. I mean, you think that’s bad now, wait until after this game! Granted, the Pirates also do hit lefties well with a .331 wOBA and a .423 SLG, but Kershaw has been damn near untouchable at this point. If you can muster up the price tag, I think Kershaw should return value on his insane price tag.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Xander Bogaerts – BOS vs. TEX (Martin Perez) – $5,400 – Bogaerts continues to feast on left-handed pitching this season and faces off against Martin Perez today. On the season, Bogaerts owns a .432 wOBA against lefties with a .581 SLG. Perez, while solid against fellow lefties, owns a .337 wOBA against righties that jumps slightly to .347 at home. In the Texas heat that certainly favors hitters, Bogaerts has to be one of the top options.

Save Big by Drafting…

Nomar Mazara – TEX vs. BOS (Clay Buchholz) – $3,500 I think this is such a great spot for Mazara today going up against Clay Buchholz. On the road this season, lefties have really been rocking Buchholz, owning a .415 wOBA with a .537 SLG. Mazara owns a .355 wOBA against righties at home with a .418 SLG. For such a cheap price going up against what Buchholz is the weakest against, you have to like this spot for Mazara.

Stack Em Up

TEX vs. BOS (Clay Buchholz) – I think Buchholz is going to run into a ton of issues today. Buchholz owns a 6.14 ERA on the road this season with a 1.41 WHIP. The Rangers are hitting extremely well at home this season, owning a .338 wOBA with a .444 SLG. Buchholz has immense trouble against lefties this season, and the Rangers have their fair share of guys to throw at him. I think Texas is a fine stack today.