We have an eight game slate going tonight after a solid afternoon slate of games. Let’s get you set for tonight, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
SFG (-300) vs. PHI – Madison Bumgarner – Man, the poor Phillies, they just can’t catch a break lately with these match ups. Tonight they take on Madison Bumgarner and they’re in a heap of trouble for this game. The Phillies may arguably be one of the worst offenses against left-handed pitching this season, owning a .262 wOBA (worst than the BRAVES) with a .279 OBP and a .323 SLG. I mean, it truly doesn’t get any worse than that. Than we look at what Bumgarner is doing at home this season, owning a 1.79 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP and a K/9 of 9.6. With the Phillies owning one of the highest K% against lefties in the league at 23.5%, I really don’t have anything positive to say about this game for the Phillies. Bumgarner is the most expensive pitcher on this slate at $14,000 and even though I usually hate paying that for pitching, this might be an exception. This could be ugly, folks.
BOS (-148) vs. TEX – Steven Wright – I hear it every single time Steven Wright takes the mound; when it he going to start his regression?! I wish I had the answer for you because then you’ll know when to stack against him, but in the meantime, he continues to impress. He’s been a force on the mound this season, averaging 25.5 FPPG in seven starts, owning a 1.54 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.3. He may have one of his toughest matchups on tap against the Rangers, who have been crushing the ball as of late. Overall against righties, the Rangers own a .314 wOBA with a .419 SLG. This is a tough game to gauge, as we have an extremely hot offense going against a pitcher that just can’t seem to be beat. The run total is high at 10 runs, so that is a bit concerning. Let’s jump into the offense for this one…..
BOS vs. TEX – 10 runs – One of the rules I have set for myself is that I never take pitching in what is the highest projected run total of the slate. I mean it makes sense, we’re expecting a good chunk of offense, so that would hurt your pitching more than likely of course. However, Wright continues to go out and impress no matter who he faces. In the same respect, it’s against a Rangers team that is killing the ball. Over their last 14 games, the Rangers own a .329 wOBA with a .446 SLG and a .324 OBP. Pitching in the Texas heat certainly won’t help the pitching today either, as was evident last night with 15 combined runs scored. For as good as Wright has been pitching, I don’t think I’ve seen him higher than 15% owned at any point this season, so it’s been tough to gauge where people are or will be at with him. With the high run total and heat for today, I personally think I’ll be staying away and concentrating on the hitters.
No weather concerns for tonight!
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Any category that favors hitters has a rating of 1.000 or higher, anything below 1.000 favors pitchers.
- Globe Life Park – BOS vs TEX – Another reason to potentially stay off of Wright, Globe Life Park currently ranks as the number three park overall for hitting. So far this season, it has a favorable rating in every offensive category except walks.
- Kauffman Stadium – HOU vs KCR – Kauffman Stadium currently ranks fourth for hitters in the 2016 season. Coming into tonight, it has a favorable rating in runs, singles, doubles and triples.
- Safeco Field – STL vs SEA – Safeco is always near the bottom of the league for hitters. So far this season, it only favors home runs.
- AT&T Park – SFG vs PHI – AT&T Park is actually favoring hitters more than last season, but I figure this will even out as the season progresses. Thus far this season, it has a favorable rating in singles, doubles, triples and walks.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Chris Young||1.297||.352||Madison Bumgarner||.450||.160|
|Jeremy Hellickson||.965||.302||Steven Wright||.529||.172|
|Jhoulys Chacin||.766||.263||Jake Odorizzi||.559||.192|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Nate Karns||.869||.310||Julio Teheran||.491||.179|
|Jeff Locke||.861||.293||A.J. Griffin||.508||.182|
|Mike Fiers||.830||.271||Steven Wright||.578||.219|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
Guys, I’m not even kidding when I say, there’s no good BvP for tonight. I couldn’t believe it myself. I went to multiple websites and the best I could find was Carlos Ruiz against Madison Bumgarner, but he’s barely even drawing a start anymore. I’m shocked and appalled and am ashamed to be apart of the BvP community today. Tomorrow is a new day.
Pitcher to Build Around
Madison Bumgarner – SFG vs PHI – $14,000 Sorry I’m not sorry for putting Bumgarner here. This is a Clayton Kershaw type start for him today and I’m 100% ok with paying the insane $14,000 to get him on my roster. As I showed earlier, the Phillies are downright putrid when facing left-handed pitching and now they face MadBum at San Francisco. Even if somehow, someway, the Phillies are able to hit Bumgarner, you CAN NOT give me a legitimate reason why anyone would be off of Bumgarner other than he’ll be highly owned. Bumgarner is, will be and alway was the top option for tonight.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Adam Jones – BAL vs. TBR (Jake Odorizzi) – $4,800 – I love that Jones is batting leadoff for the Orioles now. I think it’s a perfect spot for him, and it really seems like it’s rejuvenated his season. Tonight he faces off with Jake Odorizzi, who has really struggled on the road against righties. Coming into this start, Odorizzi owns a .357 wOBA against them with a .476 SLG and eight of his 12 home runs allowed. Jones has hit nine home runs this month with an overall wOBA of .370. I think he’s in a great spot for tonight.
Save Big by Drafting…
A.J. Reed – HOU vs. KCR (Chris Young) – $2,900 – Oh, yes. I have been WAITING for this call up all season and it’s finally happened. A.J. Reed is one of the top prospects in the Astros system and has some serious power. He was stuggling in Triple-A so far, but his matchup against Chris Young could be a great way to start off his major league career. Young is allowing a .523 wOBA to lefties this season with an .879 SLG and an astounding 14 home runs! Truly, Reed could have a great start to his major league career if he can shake off those jitters. One time, baby!
Stack Em Up
STL vs. SEA (Mike Leake) – I have to admit; I think this is a fairly tough slate for “stacking” tonight. Nothing really jumped out to me as an obvious stack, so I settled with SEA. Mike Leake hasn’t been that great on the road or at home, and has allowed seven of his 14 home runs on the road. Seattle has been great against right-handed pitching this season, owning the fifth highest wOBA at .335 with a .445 SLG and a .202 ISO. The Mariners feel like a team that never really gets talked about to stack up, so I’m wondering if the same will apply for today.