We have a full slate of games going tonight with a plethora of options to choose from. I’ll get you ready for this one and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

NYY (-222) vs. MIN – Masahiro Tanaka – The Yankees and Masahiro Tanaka check in as the heavy favorites for tonight on this 15-game slate. Tanaka, in my opinion, is one of the most frustrating pitchers to take on any given night and here’s why. Looking at his overall numbers, a 2.91 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP seems like he would be a solid option on a particular night, right? Well the first red flag for me is that his strikeouts are down, way down. Coming into tonight, Tanaka owns a K/9 of 6.6, which differs from his career 8.1. Second, he’s been awful at home this season. Owning a 4.50 ERA, Tanaka is allowing a .352 wOBA to right-handed batters this season with six of his eight home runs allowed. I think taking a flier on Tanaka is certainly worth a GPP spot, but that’s about as far as it goes.

SFG (-220) vs. PHI – Jake Peavy – On paper, Peavy has a nice matchup ahead taking on the light hitting Phillies, but nothing has come easy for Peavy this season. At home, in the pitcher friendly AT&T park mind you, he owns a .471 ERA while allowing a .351 wOBA to opposing hitters with a .449 SLG. Lefties have been the killer this season, owning a .389 wOBA overall and a .416 at home. I don’t think the Giants will end up losing this game, but it’s extremely hard to trust Peavy, even in this matchup. For what it’s worth, Peavy is coming off two solid starts against the Dodgers and Rays where he’s pitched 12 innings allowing one run on eight hits with a 11:2 K:BB ratio.

Highest Totals

ARZ vs. COL – 12.5 runs – Oh boy, BIG total for this game tonight. Coors Field gets tagged with 12.5 projected runs on the night, by far one of the highest I’ve seen here this season. Archie Bradley will take the mound for the Diamondbacks while Tyler Anderson will do so for the Rockies. This will be the second start at Coors for Anderson, who stifled the Padres his last time here, going six innings allowing one run on six hits with a 6:0 K:BB ratio. I don’t expect a repeat performance against the Diamondbacks, but he’s looked great in his two starts for the Rockies thus far.

Bradley will also be making his second start at Coors Field this season, with his first being a typical Coors Field type of start. Bradley went six innings allowing five runs on seven hits with a 2:4 K:BB ratio. Bradley has been fairly decent this season, but being a right-handed pitcher going up against this Rockies offense at home is certainly not an ideal matchup. As always, it’s smart to grab some exposure here as you seem fit.

Weather Concerns

HOU vs KCR (Kauffman Stadium) – This game could see a delay to start, as thunderstorms will be lingering from the early afternoon. However, it should clear up rather quickly, and they should have no issues throughout the remainder of the night.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – ARZ vs COL Well, were back at Coors Field, so this number one hitters park section will be occupied for the next few days. Coors Field favors hitters in every offensive category thus far in 2016.
  • Globe Life Park – BOS vs TEX – Globe Life Park will host the Red Sox tonight as they take on the Rangers. So far this season, it’s favored hitters in every offensive category except walks.
  • Marlins Park – CHC vs MIA – Marlins Park currently ranks 25th in the league for hitters, as it does not have a single category that is favorable for them.
  • Safeco Field – STL vs SEA – Safeco Field hasn’t been as bad as it usually is, but ranked 22nd isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement either. Coming into tonight, Safeco only favors hitters in home runs.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Tommy Milone1.035.333Danny Salazar.475.150
Eric Surkamp.984.333Carlos Rodon.527.215
Aaron Blair.910.301Masahiro Tanaka.544.208

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Eric Surkamp.989.333Carlos Martinez.432.185
Aaron Blair.866.295Max Scherzer.481.151
Jered Weaver.854.303Kyle Hendricks.577.206

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Colby RasmusEdinson Volquez142.85
Adam JonesMatt Moore272.4
Miguel CabreraDanny Salazar262.19

  • It’s been a very lackluster week for BvP, so today is a nice way to get back to some solid numbers. We start off with Colby Rasmus taking on Edinson Volquez. Rasmus is 5-14 with three doubles, a home run and six RBIs.
  • Next we have Adam Jones taking on Matt Moore. Jones has gone 11-27 with a double, two home runs and seven RBIs.
  • Finally, we have Miguel Cabrera taking on Danny Salazar. Cabrera has gone 9-26 with a double, two home runs and five RBIs off of Salazar.  

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Carlos Martinez – STL vs SEA – $10,000 I REALLY like Scherzer going up against the Brewers tonight. However, his price tag is super high, as it’s just shy of the $14K mark, at $13,900. Going through the list of starters tonight, Martinez going up against Seattle at Safeco Field caught my eye. Martinez has been solid this season, but on the road he’s been fantastic. Coming into this start, Martinez owns a 1.78 ERA with a .233 wOBA. His strikeouts go down a bit on the road to 6.1, but I think he’s in a good enough spot regardless. At $10,000, his price feels really fair for this matchup in a nice pitchers park like Safeco. The Mariners are hitting decent at home this season, owning a .327 wOBA with a .325 OBP and a K% of 20%. I think Martinez will be overlooked tonight and could come away with a nice start here.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Carlos Gonzalez – COL vs. ARZ (Archie Bradley) – $5,400 – I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, I’m not a big fan of showcasing the most expensive hitter/pitcher on a particular night. I think it’s usually fairly obvious why they’re priced they way they are and we’re done with it. However, I do REALLY like this spot or Gonzalez. Hitting at Coors, he faces a right-handed pitcher in Archie Bradley which falls right into his wheelhouse. Gonzalez has been crushing righties at home, owning a .465 wOBA with a .706 SLG and a 1.112 OPS. In one of the highest projected run totals at Coors this season, Gonzalez feels like a must.

Save Big by Drafting…

Robbie Grossman – MIN vs. NYY (Masahiro Tanaka) – $3,100 – Grossman continues to put up solid numbers for the Twins while his salary continues to hang out in the very low $3K range. Going tonight against Tanaka certainly doesn’t sound like the safest option on the night, but I’m intrigued by some of the numbers I’m looking at. On the road this season against righties, Grossman owns an absurd .513 wOBA with an .800 SLG. I stated earlier that Tanaka has not pitched well at home this season, so, naturally, this seems like a great fit. For what it’s worth, Tanaka owns a .352 wOBA at home against righties this season. At such a cheap cost, Grossman seems like a solid play for tonight.

Stack Em Up

TOR vs. CHW (Carlos Rodon) – Every time I’ve stacked up the Blue Jays, it has come back with a lackluster return, I’m hoping we can avoid that for tonight. Facing Carlos Rodon, who struggles against right-handed batters, he faces a lineup that has quite a few power righties in this lineup. Bautista, Donaldson, Encarnacion are just a few of the players Rodon will have to face with his .361 wOBA against righties. Rodon is also someone that is struggling with the long ball a bit, allowing 11 home runs on the season. I don’t think many people will be talking about this stack tonight, and I think it could be a solid one.