We have a short five game slate on tap for tonight, which is going to make rosters veryyyyyyyy interesting. I’ll get you ready for this one, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

CHC (-166) vs. MIA – Jon Lester – Lester and the Cubs are the heavy favorite on this very short five game slate. Coming into tonight, Lester has been fantastic, averaging 23.6 FPPG with a 2.06 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. This will be his first time facing the Marlins this season, who own a team .316 wOBA against lefties with a .325 OBP and a .410 SLG. While many players in this lineup don’t scare me, Marcell Ozuna is one to certainly be careful of. He’s been lighting up left-handed pitching this season, owning a .534 wOBA against lefties with a .833 SLG. All in all, I think Lester should have a fine start on the road tonight, where he’s averaging 21.2 FPPG, and you shouldn’t have any reservations about getting him in your lineup in my opinion.

Highest Totals

ARZ vs. COL – 10.5 runs – This is one of the lower projected run totals for a Coors Field game, as Greinke has been pitching fantastic in the month of June. During this month, Greinke is averaging 30.4 FPPG in four starts, allowing three total runs with a 25:5 K:BB ratio. This will be the second time Greinke faces off against the Rockies, where he pitched seven innings allowing two runs on eight hits with a 8:2 K:BB ratio. Even with Greinke pitching much better, I can’t say I would fully trust him in this spot, even though he’s only going to cost you $8,700. At home, the Rockies own the highest team wOBA at .377 with a .527 SLG. This is an interesting game for sure and one that I don’t doubt will be popular on both ends.

Weather Concerns

SDP vs CIN (Great American Ballpark) – This game should start without a problem, it’s later in the night that could have some issues. Thunderstorms are threatening to pop up later.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – ARZ vs COL Well, we are back at Coors Field, so this number one hitters park section will be occupied for the next few days. Coors Field favors hitters in every offensive category thus far in 2016.
  • Turner Field – NYM vs ATL – Turner Field has been one of the best hitting ballparks in all of baseball this season. Coming into tonight, it has favorable ratings in runs, singles, triples and walks.
  • Marlins Park – CHC vs MIA – Marlins park is currently tied for 23rd in ballparks this season. It currently does not have a favorable ratings for any offensive category.
  • Great American Ballpark – SDP vs CIN – Maybe this is more because the Reds aren’t really hitting this season, but the Great American Ballpark currently only has a favorable rating in home runs in 2016.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Eddie Butler.916.321Jon Lester.557.205
Matt Harvey.890.321Zack Greinke.721.261
Kendal Graveman.856.283Wei-Yin Chen.727.294

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Jake Lamb.957.300Jon Lester.590.216
Eddie Butler.892.288Christian Friedrich.641.243
Kendal Graveman.836.302Zack Greinke.642.227

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

Batter OpposingSPABFP/AB
Carlos GonzalezZack Greinke312.8
Martin PradoJon Lester102.8
Ben ZobristWei-Yin Chen401.87

  • Wasn’t expecting much on this slate for BvP for how short it is, and I was correct. We start off with Carlos Gonzalez taking on Zack Greinke, where he’s gone 12-31 with a double, triple, four home runs and six RBIs.
  • Next we have Martin Prado taking on Jon Lester. Prado has gone 6-10 against Lester with three doubles and two RBIs.
  • Finally we have Ben Zobrist taking on Wei-Yin Chen. Zobrist is 15-40 with three doubles, a home run and four walks.

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Christian Friedrich – SDP vs CIN – $7,200 One pitcher we haven’t touched on in this article is Friedrich. He’s quietly been putting together a solid campaign with the Padres, coming into this game with a 3.15 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and averaging 15.1 FPPG in seven starts. Even on a slate like today, Friedrich should be overlooked and is in a decent spot. We know Lester will be highly owned, so the difference maker will be who he’s paired with. Friedrich may be your guy.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Matt Kemp – SDP vs. CIN (John Lamb) – $4,900 – Kemp has been mashing left-handed pitching this season, so it should be no surprise that his matchup against Lamb is a good one tonight in CIN. Owning a .447 wOBA against lefties this season, Kemp should benefit immensely from playing in the hitter friendly Great American Ballpark. Lamb comes into this start owning a .355 wOBA against righties with six of his seven home runs allowed.

Save Big by Drafting…

Ryan Raburn – COL vs. ARZ (Zack Greinke) – $3,100 – Raburn is an extremely cheap way to grab some exposure to Coors Field tonight. In an odd twist this season, Raburn has been hitting right-handed pitching much better than left this season. At Coors Field, Raburn owns a .492 wOBA with a .792 SLG this season. Quite the numbers for someone who was brought in to essentially hit against lefties for them this season. On paper, this isn’t the easiest matchup for Raburn, but I’m willing to take a shot for just $3,100.