WATCH: BvP Breakdown


Thursday night brings us a short, six-game slate of baseball. Let’s dive right into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Pitcher Favorite

Luis Severino vs. L.A. Angels – Luis Severino ($12,300) – The Yankees are huge favorites tonight as they continue their series with the L.A. Angels. Coming into the series, the Angels had one of the worst road wOBAs in the league, but have managed to score 11 runs in the first two games of this series. Tonight, however, they face one of the Yankees’ best in Severino. He’s been great at home this season, posting a .262 wOBA with a .350 SLG and a K/9 of 9.7. If you’re considering Severino tonight, which I’m sure you are, you’ll pay a hefty price for him at $12,300. No one even comes close regarding salary, with Jake Arrieta being the closest at $8,800. The Angels have the lowest projected run total of the night at 3.6, making Severino a very attractive pick on the evening.

Highest Totals

Cleveland Indians vs. Baltimore Orioles – 10.5 projected runs – The Indians and Orioles are the only game tonight with a double-digit run projection as Mike Clevinger and Wade Miley will take the mound for their respective teams. The Indians are slight favorites here with a 5.5 run projection. Miley has pitched his best at home this season, owning a .307 wOBA, a .336 SLG and allowing just three of his 10 home runs allowed. The Indians have been average against lefties on the year, posting a .321 wOBA with a .413 SLG and one of the lowest K% at 16.8. I have to admit, I’m not crazy about the Indians tonight, but they’re certainly in play regarding stacking.

Weather Concerns

No weather concerns!

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Yankee Stadium – L.A. Angels vs. New York Yankees – Yankee Stadium is our number one ballpark tonight for hitters. So far this season, all offensive categories except triples have favored hitters.
  • SunTrust Park – San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves – We have to go way down the list to find our second most favorable ballpark, which ended up at SunTrust Park. Singles, doubles and triples are the only categories favoring hitters so far this year.
  • Camden Yards – Cleveland Indians vs. Baltimore Orioles – Camden Yards ranks as our worst park for hitters tonight. So far this season, walks are the only category favored here.
  • Safeco Field – Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners – Safeco Field is our second least favorable ballpark for hitters on the night. So far this season, only walks have been favored here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Hyun-Jin Ryu1.048.353Wade Miley.526.158
Jeff Locke1.027.333Luis Severino.654.213
Jake Arrieta.900.273Jaime Garcia.678.257

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Jesse Chavez.892.284Luis Severino.563.211
Matt Cain.829.310Mike Clevinger.565.167
Wade Miley.811.284Jeff Locke.582.214

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Anthony RizzoJeff Locke293.68
Kris BryantJeff Locke143.14

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jake Arrieta – CHC vs. MIA – $8,800 –  If you have Severino locked into your lineup already, who do we pair him with? For the first time this season, I think I’m comfortable with rolling out Arrieta. He’s taken a MASSIVE salary drop since his last start, dropping $2,400 to $8,800 for tonight. He’ll face the Marlins for the second time this season after holding them to two runs over six innings with a 5:3 K:BB ratio. Aside from a poor outing against the Rockies, Arrieta has been pitching much better as of late, averaging 16.1 FPPG over his last five starts. At this salary, Arrieta is certainly under consideration tonight.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Anthony Rizzo – CHC vs. MIA – $5,300 – Rizzo has been tearing the cover off the ball lately. In fact, it feels like he has during the entire more of June, as he owns a .491 wOBA and a .731 SLG this month. More specifically, over his past 10 games, he’s averaging 13.1 fantasy points with four home runs, four doubles and a triple. You may have noticed his BvP numbers against Jeff Locke as well, which certainly didn’t hurt his case for tonight either. Nonetheless, Rizzo is posting a .415 wOBA against lefties this season with a .629 SLG and a .393 OBP.

Save Big by Drafting…

Wilmer Flores – NYM vs. LAD – $2,800 – Flores is just way too cheap to ignore tonight going up against a left-handed pitcher. In case you haven’t heard the buzz, Flores is a left-handed pitcher slayer, and he’s done it many times this season. Coming into tonight, Flores has posted a .424 wOBA against lefties on the road with a .615 SLG and a .407 OBP. If you’re taking Severino tonight, Flores is the perfect guy to even out your salary for the rest of your lineup.

Stack Em Up

New York Yankees vs. L.A. Angels (L.A. Angels) – I had the Yankees listed here yesterday, and I’m doing it again tonight. They’re taking on Jesse Chavez, who has continuously been hammered on the road this season. Before this start against the Yankees, Chavez is posting a .385 road wOBA with a .570 SLG and 10 of his 18 home runs allowed. The Yankees are always a decent team to stack, and Chavez isn’t pushing me away from them tonight.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.