After a nice eight game slate this afternoon, you can end your night with another solid seven game slate this evening. I’ll get you ready for this one and as always – find me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

BAL (-206) vs. SD – I think Baltimore will win this game, however I don’t know about Jimenez though. Jimenez has had a real rough go of it this season, owning a .384 wOBA at home this season with a .487 SLG. His 6.22 ERA at home certainly solidifies his struggles at home, as seven of his eight home runs allowed have come at Camden Yards. This game also has the highest projected run total of the night (more on that below) so taking a pitcher in this spot is certainly not recommended. We’ll go more in depth for this game in just a moment, so let’s take a look at who else is favored on this slate.

TEX (-200) vs. CIN – Hamels has really been struggling at home this season, allowing a .371 wOBA with a .481 SLG. The Reds aren’t the best hitting team against lefties, but they own a respectable .319 wOBA with a .430 SLG with a fairly high 22.2 K%. Hamels at home has not been a safe choice at all this season, as he’s averaging only 14.5 FPPG compared to his 25 on the road. As the second most expensive pitcher on the night, I think I’ll be staying far away from Hamels here. Some may make the case that he has strikeout potential and I don’t disagree with that. Owning a 8.9 K/9 at home is certainly worthy, but I just don’t trust him at Globe Life Park.

Biggest Over/Unders

SDP vs. BAL – 10 runs – 10 projected runs in this game and we aren’t even at Coors Field. James Shields..errr… Erik Johnson will make the start for the Padres as he faces off against Jimenez. Johnson was acquired in the James Shields trade and he’s doing his best impression of him so far. Johnson has made four starts and is averaging FOUR home runs per game. FOUR! That’s right folks, Johnson has allowed 10 home runs in that span while allowing a .596 wOBA to righties and a .392 against lefties. Facing guys like Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo at Camden Yards just really makes it feel like this game is going to have a ton of runs. Let’s not forget that Jimenez has been pitching extremely poorly at home this season and I feel like we have a perfect storm brewing. I would absolutely 100% advise you to grab some exposure to this game, it should be filled with fantasy goodness.

Weather Concerns

SFG vs PIT (PNC Park)- This game should start without a problem, it’s later in the night that could pop up with some issues. Thunderstorms are threatening to show up later and could cause some issues.

SEA vs DET (Comerica Park)- Same scenario as PNC Park, as this game should start without a problem but we could see some rain later in the night.

TB vs. CLE (Progressive Field)- This game has one of the biggest issues of being PPD, as Cleveland should see rain all throughout the night which does not let up until late.

PHI vs MIN (Target Field) – Again, another threat of a PPD here, as Target Field will see rain all throughout the night.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Progressive Field – TBR vs CLE Progressive Field checks in as the number one ballpark for hitters tonight. With a favorable rating in every offensive category except triples, we always see plenty of offense here.
  • Globe Life Park – CIN vs TEX – Globe Life Park is one of the top hitting parks in all the majors this season and gets the nod for number two tonight. It has a favorable rating in every category except walks this season.
  • Dodger Stadium – WAS vs LAD – Dodger Stadium is ranked as the worst ballpark in all the majors for hitters in 2016. Without a single category favored for the hitters, it’s easy to see why.
  • PNC Park – SFG vs PITPNC usually doesn’t make this list, as it’s ranked as the 19th park overall for hitters this season. It does have some favorable rankings in singles, doubles and triples.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Ubaldo Jimenez1.051.362Jose Quintana.454.185
Erik Johnson.967.292Eduardo Rodriguez.516.231
Kyle Gibson.941.333Michael Fulmer.558.202

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Erik Johnson1.292.364Joe Ross.567.194
Eduardo Rodriguez1.010.300Jeff Samardzija.618.231
Adam Morgan.903.302Jose Quintana.679.256

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Victor MartinezHisashi Iwakuma124.16
Ian KinslerHisashi Iwakuma292.44
Andrew McCutchenJeff Samardzija321.96

  • A shorter slate means another underwhelming day of BvP. We do start off with a good one though, with Victor Martinez taking on Hisashi Iwakuma. Martinez is 6-12 with a double, two home runs and six RBIs.
  • Continuing to hammer on Iwakuma, we have Kinsler with some good numbers against him as well. Kinsler is 11-29 with two doubles and three solo shots.
  • Even though McCutchen hasn’t had a very good season to this point, he’s always hit Samardzija fairly well. McCutchen is 13-32 with five doubles, two RBIs and five walks.

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Trevor Bauer – CLE vs TBR – $10,600 Yesterday I made a statement on Twitter saying I wasn’t thrilled about Corey Kluber taking on the Rays. Why would I say such a thing? Well, I didn’t like Kluber’s home splits this season and I thought this was a classic case where people would get hung up on the “name” and take Kluber, ignoring the numbers. Well, I actually watched that game (where Kluber was great) and saw just how bad this Rays offense really is right now. It’s bad. So tonight, I’m ignoring Bauer and his so-so home splits and rolling with him. This Rays offense continues to scuffle against right-handed pitching and own the second highest K% against righties at 25.2%. Bauer comes into this game with an 8.9 K/9 on the season and I think he should have a great game in this spot. I’m sorry for ever doubting Kluber people.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Mark Trumbo – BAL vs. SDP (Erik Johnson) – $4,200 – If Johnson continues his home run trend like he has in his past starts, I’m hoping Trumbo is part of the home run barrage. In a matchup like this, it’s hard to ignore what Trumbo is capable of. With 20 home runs on the season and 10 of those coming at Camden Yards, I love my chances here. We know how bad Johnson has been, and Trumbo comes into this spot with a .383 wOBA against righties with a .544 SLG. Also, the fact that he’s only $4,200 is just a steal.

Save Big by Drafting…

Andrew McCutchen – PIT vs. SFG (Jeff Samardzija) – $3,300 – I’m hoping maybe some decent BvP against Samardzija will help spark the season for McCutchen that is quickly slipping away. It’s insane that McCutchen is only $3,300, but it’s just a true testament of how bad he’s really been. As I showcased earlier, McCutchen does have decent numbers against Samardzija and this game takes place at PNC Park. McCutchen has shown some signs of life lately, but it’s nothing to get overly excited about just yet. At the end of the day, $3,300 isn’t going to kill your lineup.

Stack Em Up

CIN vs. TEX (Cole Hamels) – I think this is a nice sneaky stack on the night for low cost. The Reds are priced accordingly, going up against a high profiled pitcher, but I’m not convinced Hamels will throw a good game here. With how poorly he’s pitched at home, I think the Reds have a legitimate chance to grabs some runs off of him here at Globe Life Park. This isn’t one of those slates where you’re going to need to save money to grab pitching, as Trevor Bauer is the most expensive on the slate at $10,600, but I could see the Reds being very under owned tonight. Hopefully we will reap the benefits.