Wednesday night brings us an 11-game slate of baseball. Let’s dive right into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Pitcher Favorite

L.A. Dodgers vs. New York Mets – Rich Hill ($8,900) – The Dodgers are the heavy favorites tonight as they continue their series with the New York Mets. Rich Hill will take the mound for the Dodgers tonight, sporting a .364 wOBA on the road. Hill looks as if he’s come back down to Earth lately, averaging just 10.4 fantasy points in six starts since his return from the disabled list. Amazingly, Hill hasn’t been allowing much hard contact, averaging just an 18% hard hit rate over his last three games. The Mets haven’t been producing much of anything at home this season, posting a .301 wOBA with a .309 OBP and a 19.7 K%. In DraftKings tournaments, I can see the appeal of Hill, as his salary is a friendly $8,900 on the night. Aside from tournaments though, I’m not particularly in the market to be getting Hill on my roster.

Highest Totals

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies – 12 projected runs – The D-Backs and Rockies are projected for a whopping 12 runs tonight, with the Rockies projected at 6.3. Taijuan Walker will be making his second start since returning to the disabled list, where he pitched five innings allowing just one run on six hits with a 6:1 K:BB ratio. Walker has pitched quite well this season, so I was a bit surprised to see the higher than normal run total for the Rockies. As of this afternoon, their run total had dropped by almost half a run, so I could be on the right track here. Regardless, the Rockies are posting a .355 wOBA at Coors Field this season with a .493 SLG and a .348 OBP. I don’t hate a Rockies stack by any means, but I think it’s worth watching how much more if any, their run total drops this afternoon.

Weather Concerns

San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves (SunTrust Park) – As they’ve had all series, Atlanta will deal with a threat of rain tonight. Take a look closer to first pitch to get the latest on this game. Download the DK Live app to stay in touch with breaking news and weather updates.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies – Per the usual, Coors Field is our number one ballpark for hitters tonight. All offensive categories are favored here.
  • Miller Park – Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers – Miller Park ranks as a top ballpark for hitters tonight. Thus far in 2017, all offensive categories get the nod here with the exception of triples.
  • Camden Yards – Cleveland Indians vs. Baltimore Orioles – Camden Yards ranks as our worst park for hitters tonight. So far this season, walks are the only category favored here.
  • Safeco Field – Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners – Safeco Field is our second least favorable ballpark on the night. So far this season, only walks have been favored here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Rich Hill.857.273David Holmberg.293.100
Michael Wacha.857.270Sean Manaea.400.109
Ricky Nolasco.853.280Jeff Hoffman.416.143

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Kevin Gausman1.012.381Jose Berrios.517.174
Nick Pivetta.937.295Carlos Carrasco.562.199
Ricky Nolasco.932.301David Holmberg.573.176

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Kyle SeagerJustin Verlander173.58
Matt HollidayRicky Nolasco262.84

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jose Berrios – MIN vs. CWS  – $11,400 –  It’s so easy to write up the most expensive pitcher on the slate, but man, how good has Berrios been? Once the target of DraftKings players last season, Berrios is quickly emerging as the Twins’ ace and pitching like a whole new person. In three home starts this year, Berrios is averaging 24.6 fantasy points with a .222 wOBA and a .203 SLG against. Berrios carries a 9.5 K/9 in his three home starts and will face a White Sox team that owns a 22 K% on the road.
h3. Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Gary Sanchez – NYY vs. LAA – $4,900 – Sanchez has been destroying the ball as of late, averaging a whopping 17 fantasy points over his last 10 games with six home runs, 18 RBI and three doubles. Tonight he’ll face off against Ricky Nolasco, who is no stranger to giving up a long ball or seven. Averaging 2.3 HR/9 in 14 starts, Nolasco has allowed 21 home runs on the season with seven of those coming against righties on the road.

Save Big by Drafting…

Carlos Gonzalez – COL vs. ARI – $3,600 – At one point this month, Gonzalez was in a 0-24 skid before getting a couple of days off to reset. Since then, Gonzalez is averaging 7.6 fantasy points over his last five games with a home run. It’s a start, but he’s just too cheap for hitting fifth in the Rockies’ order at Coors Field. He’ll be taking on Taijuan Walker tonight, who has historically struggled against lefties on the road. If we look at last season, Walker posted a .388 wOBA in those matchups with a .613 SLG.

Stack Em Up

New York Yankees vs. L.A. Angels (Ricky Nolasco) – My favorite non-Coors Field stack belongs to the Yankees tonight. With so many offensive weapons, I can’t imagine them doing anything but crushing Nolasco. Aside from all the home runs he allows, Nolasco has a .374 wOBA on the road with a .578 SLG and a .331 OBP. As I’m sure you’re aware, the Yankees continue to be one of the best hitting clubs at home this season, posting a league-leading .372 wOBA with a .519 SLG and a .363 OBP.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.