We have a full 15 game slate on tap for tonight with a really nice mix of value bats with solid pitchers. I have you covered for everything to look for tonight. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

MIA (-300) vs. ATL – Jose Fernandez – Fernandez has been pitching extremely well as of late. Before his last start against the Diamondbacks, Fernandez scored at least 30 points in six straight starts, even reaching the 45 mark against the Mets. Taking on a team like the Braves, Fernandez should be able to breeze through this lineup no problem. However, naturally, this will come with a huge price to pay, as Fernandez is priced at $13,700. Coming into tonight, Fernandez at home owns a 14.2 K/9 while holding opposing batters to a .240 wOBA.

TEX (-210) vs. CIN – Colby Lewis – Is it time to start believing in Colby Lewis? Is this where we are at now in the 2016 season? Lewis was extremely close to no-hitting the the Oakland A’s his last time out, where he ended up going nine innings allowing one run on two hits with a 4:1 K:BB ratio. And that right there is the problem with Lewis. For as good of a line as that is, he only managed 31 points on the night. Don’t get me wrong, if you had Lewis and got 31 points out of him, you’d be thrilled. But it feels a bit underwhelming when you think about the performance he had. Lewis is not striking guys out, owning a 5.6 K/9 on the season. Even against a Reds team that is really struggling against righties this season, owning a .297 wOBA with a 22.9 K%, I think the ceiling for Lewis is limited. On a short slate, Lewis would be in consideration. On a full 15 game slate, not so much.

Highest Totals

TEX vs. CIN – 10 runs – Let’s also not forget the fact that Lewis is pitching in the highest projected run total of the night. That for me is always a red flag and one I usually try to avoid at all costs. Now granted, Texas is hitting EXTREMELY well right now and they go up against Anthony DeSclafani tonight. His overall numbers look fine in two starts, but against the Braves, DeSclafani allowed four runs even though one of them was earned. Also in that start, DeSclafani only lasted 2.2 innings, throwing 76 (!) pitches. The Rangers own a .316 wOBA against righties this season with a .422 SLG. I think this is a great game to target tonight and one I would be staying far away from the pitching.

Weather Concerns

No weather or wind concerns for tonight!

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Any category that favors hitters has a rating of 1.000 or higher, anything below 1.000 favors pitchers.

  • Progressive Field – TBR vs CLE – Progressive Field remains the second best hitters park in all of baseball this season and number one on this list tonight. Coming into tonight, all offensive categories except triples are favored here.
  • Rogers Centre – ARZ vs TOR – Rogers Centre has been fantastic for hitters this season, favoring them in runs, singles, doubles, triples and home runs.
  • Dodger Stadium – WAS vs LAD – Dodger Stadium currently ranks as one of the worst ballparks in all the majors. It does not currently have a favorable rating in any offensive category.
  • Oakland Coliseum – MIL vs OAK – The Oakland Coliseum ranks 28th overall for ballparks this season, as hitters are only seeing a favorable rating in triples this season.


Splits to Start

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Clay Buchholz.920.317Tanner Roark. 551.192
Bud Norris.91.287Justin Verlander.575.196
Colin McHugh.892.314Marco Estrada.593.181

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Sonny Gray.907.273Noah Syndergaard.479.192
Chad Bettis.876.304Jose Fernandez.479  .175
Ivan Nova.864.317Marco Estrada.519.154

Editor’s Note: Noah Syndergaard has been scratched from his start tonight. Bartolo Colon will take the mound for the Mets.

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Neil WalkerIan Kennedy213.23
James LoneyIan Kennedy162.93
Wellington CastiiloMarco Estrada232,91

  • Ian Kennedy has two players that have hit him very well in their matchups together. First we have Neil Walker, who is 9-21 with a double, three home runs and nine RBIs.
  • Next to jump on the Kennedy train is James Loney. In their brief matchups, Loney has gone 7-16 with four doubles, a home run and three RBIs.
  • Finally, we have someone who is not hitting well against Kennedy. Castillo is 7-23 off of Estrada with four home runs and eight RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jose Fernandez – ATL @ MIA – ($13,700) – Fernandez has the best matchup on the night, and with the news that Noah Syndergaard has been scratched from his start tonight, he’s my top pitcher to build around. As mentioned previously, prior to his last start, Fernandez scored at least 30 points in six straight starts, even reaching the 45 mark against the Mets. He’s averaging 27.4 FPPG on the season, along with a 14.2 K/9.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Edwin Encarnacion – TOR vs. ARZ (Patrick Corbin) – $5,300 – So naturally when the Blue Jays are facing a less than stellar left-handed pitcher, you would think that starting Donaldson is the way to go. I don’t disagree. However, Donaldson has yet to hit a home run at Rogers Centre against a lefty this season. Not saying it can’t happen, but Donaldson possesses most of his power against righties. With Encarnaction, you’re getting the best of both worlds in my opinion. At home against lefties, Encarnacion owns a .496 wOBA with a .821 SLG and four of his 18 home runs. You’re also saving $300, which isn’t huge, but every little bit helps. I’m not saying fade Donaldson by any means, I just think Encarnacion is a better option.

Save Big by Drafting…

Evan Gattis. – HOU vs. LAA (Hector Santiago) – $3,600 – If you like home runs, this might be a game you want to watch tonight. The Astros take on Hector Santiago tonight, who is one of my favorite pitchers to target against. On the season, Santiago has allowed 14 home runs with 12 of those coming to right-handed batters. On top of that, Santiago continues to struggle against right-handed bats, owning a .346 wOBA against them with a .483 SLG. Gattis hasn’t been crushing the ball, but his home run potential makes him worth the $3,600 price tag. Gattis has a .360 wOBA against lefties with six of his 11 home runs.

Stack em Up…

CHW vs BOS (Clay Buchholz) – Need to save some money tonight? How about a White Sox stack? Clay Buchholz is returning to the rotation to the cheer and delight of fantasy players all across the land. At Fenway Park this season, Buchholz owns a .354 wOBA with a .479 SLG. The White Sox aren’t exactly killing the ball right now, but on a night where you’re going to have to save some money if you’re grabbing Fernandez, a White Sox stack may not be the worst idea.