WATCH: MLB IN 90 SECONDS DEE GORDON


Monday night brings us an 11-game slate of baseball. Let’s dive right into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Pitcher Favorite

L.A. Dodgers vs. New York Mets – Clayton Kershaw ($13,500) – The Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw are the most heavily favored team tonight as they get set to take on the New York Mets. Kershaw is coming off a fairly rough outing against the Indians, where he lasted seven innings allowing two runs on six hits but only struck out four. Kershaw has been bitten by the home run ball as of late, allowing six over his last four starts. I’m not overly concerned though, as he’s allowing just an 18% hard hit rate over his last three starts. With the Mets projected at just 2.6 runs tonight, which is by far one of the lowest totals I’ve seen this season, Kershaw will and should be an excellent play tonight.

Highest Totals

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers – 10.5 projected runs – The Blue Jays and Rangers are tabbed with the highest projected run total of the night with Toronto slightly favored at 5.5 runs. The Blue Jays are set to take on Austin Bibens-Dirkx, who will be making just his third start of the season and eighth appearance overall. His last start against the Nationals was an impressive one, scoring 19 fantasy points through seven innings of one-run ball. It’s going to be a hot and humid night Texas, which certainly plays into the high run projection. The Blue Jays have been struggling at the plate as of late, posting a .318 wOBA over the past two weeks with a .318 OBP and a .419 SLG. With the weather being as it is, however, it’s a prime spot to wake up those bats.

Weather Concerns

Cleveland Indians vs. Baltimore Orioles (Camden Yards) – This game could be in real danger of being PPD tonight as thunderstorms will be lingering all night. This is certainly worth watching as we near first pitch.

San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves (SunTrust Park) – Atlanta will have a threat of rain all throughout the night, but it gets smaller and smaller as the night progresses. It should be OK, but just make sure later today.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Miller Park – Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers – Miller Park ranks as our number one ballpark for hitters tonight. Thus far in 2017, all offensive categories get the nod here with the exception of triples.
  • Globe Life Park- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers – Globe Life Park is our second most favorable ballpark for hitters tonight as they host the Blue Jays. Runs, home runs and singles have been favored here thus far in 2017.
  • Camden Yards  – Cleveland Indians vs. Baltimore Orioles – Camden Yards ranks are our worst park for hitters tonight as they host the Indians. So far this season, walks are the only category favored here.
  • Kauffman Stadium – Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals – Kauffman Stadium is our second worst ballpark tonight as the Red Sox visit for a weekday series. Doubles have been the only category favored towards hitters.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Gerrit Cole.895.293Jon Lester.562.221
Clayton Kershaw.860.282Brad Peacock.615.188
Scott Feldman.836.271Clayton Richard.651.292

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
R.A. Dickey.904.288Brad Peacock.497.173
Sam Gaviglio.891.286Clayton Kershaw.535.187
Clayton Richard.835.303Tanner Roark.652.257

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Nelson CruzAnibal Sanchez126
Matt KempJohnny Cueto342.17

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jon Lester – CHC vs. SD – $10,500 –  My first choice for tonight was Corey Kluber, but with the weather looking like it is in Baltimore, I’m switching over to Jon Lester. He had a stellar outing in his last time out against the Mets. He has a great matchup tonight against the Padres at Wrigley Field, where Lester has consistently performed well this season. In eight home starts, Lester is averaging 20.5 fantasy points with a .257 wOBA, a .320 SLG and a K/9 of 8.4. The Padres have been a tough team to nail down regarding production, but for what it’s worth, they own the lowest road wOBA in the league at .280 with  K% of 24.5%. I expect Lester to be highly popular tonight, especially if Baltimore gets rained out.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Anthony Rizzo – CHC vs. SD – $4,800 – Sticking with the Padres-Cubs game, I like Rizzo tonight against Clayton Richard. Rizzo is posting a .441 wOBA at home against lefties with a .677 SLG and a .421 OBP. He’s been hitting very well as of late, averaging 12.5 fantasy points over his last 10 games with four doubles and three home runs.

Save Big by Drafting…

Jose Bautista – TOR vs. TEX – $3,800 – Going with the highest projected run total of the night, Bautista at $3,800 feels awfully cheap tonight. Sure, his production hasn’t been the greatest as of late, but his road numbers certainly can pique your interest. Bautista is posting a .380 wOBA against righties on the road this season with a .484 SLG and a .385 OBP. With that humid weather in Texas tonight, Bautista is a candidate to make that ball fly this evening.

Stack Em Up

Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers (Anibal Sanchez) – Anibal Sanchez gets the call from AAA tonight to make a spot start against the Mariners. He’s pitched fairly well in the minors, but who can forget how he’s performed in the majors lately? Last season as a starter, Sanchez posted a .355 wOBA with a .482 SLG and 28 home runs allowed. The Mariners have some hitters that can hit Sanchez well, as Nelson Cruz is certainly one of them.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.