WATCH: PITCHER TO FADE?


Friday night brings us a full 15-game slate of baseball. Let’s dive right into all the information, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Pitcher Favorite

L.A. Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds – Alex Wood ($9,100) – The Dodgers are heavily favored tonight as they take on the Reds. On the mound for L.A. will be Alex Wood and his .249 road wOBA. The Reds are projected at 4.2 runs tonight as they’ll be facing Wood for the second time this season. When they faced off last week at Dodger Stadium, Wood lasted 5.2 innings allowing three runs on five hits with a 7:0 K:BB ratio. Wood has been keeping the ball on the ground so well thus far, allowing just two fly balls in that prior game against the Reds and FOUR total in his last five games. His hard-hit rate has gone up lately, averaging at 33% over his last three games, but I’m not overly concerned here. At $9,100, Wood brings some great value to this full pitching slate.

Highest Total

San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies – 11.5 projected runs – Coors Field dominates the highest projected run total of the night once again at 11.5. The Rockies are slight favorites in this one with a 5.9 projection against Jeff Samardzija. This will be the third start for Samardzija against this Rockies club this season, and the first two haven’t gone well by any means. In 12.1 innings, he’s allowed 11 runs on 15 hits with two home runs and a respectable 14:3 K:BB ratio. The Rockies continue to completely dominate at home, as you’d expect, posting a .349 wOBA with a .342 OBP, and a .492 SLG.

Weather Concerns

No weather concerns for tonight!

Park Factors

Now that we’ve entered the month of June, I’ll be switching over to the 2017 Park Factor stats.

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies – As always, Coors tops our most favorable place for hitters. All offensive categories get the nod here.
  • Target Field – Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins – Target Field checks in as our second most favorable ballpark on the night.  All offensive categories have been favored here in 2017.
  • Minute Maid Park – Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros – The Red Sox will be visiting this Astros for a weekend series at Minute Maid Park. As always, no offensive categories are favored.
  • Camden Yards – St. Louis Cardinals vs. Baltimore Orioles – Camden Yards has not been a place of offensive outbursts in 2017. Heading into tonight, walks are the only category favoring hitters.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Drew Pomeranz1.060.400Sean Manaea.383.093
Daniel Norris.887.275James Paxton.431.188
Jeff Samardzija.830.266Alex Wood.553.215

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Kevin Gausman1.012.380Max Scherzer.398.124
Mike Fiers1.006.291Alex Wood.472.182
Patrick Corbin.932.332Joe Biagini.534.203

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Albert PujolsIan Kennedy153.6
Michael ConfortoMax Scherzer153.33
Kendrys MoralesJose Quintana382.07

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Luis Severino – NYY vs. OAK – $11,500 –  Severino is the second most expensive pitcher on this 15-game slate, but he does carry a $1,400 discount from Max Scherzer. Severino is facing an Oakland team that is hitting well at home, posting a .336 wOBA with a .481 SLG, but they also are prone to strikeouts. Owning a 23.6 K% at home and a 24.6% overall against righties, Severino is certainly in a spot where he can put up some points. Severino owns a 10.3 K/9 on the road and has only allowed a 27% hard hit rate over his last three starts. I’m more than willing to pay up for him tonight.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Mookie Betts – BOS vs. HOU – $5,300 – I think the Red Sox will easily go overlooked tonight as they take on Mike Fiers. In case you’ve forgotten, Fiers has been horrendous at home against right-handed batters. Heading into tonight, Fiers is posting a .404 wOBA in these matchups with a .638 SLG and five home runs. Betts has been hitting extremely well as of late and owns a .387 wOBA on the road with a .581 SLG.

Save Big by Drafting…

Kevin Pillar – TOR vs. CWS – $3,400 – Pillar has been a sneak play to roster when he’s hitting against left-handed pitching. At home, Pillar is posting a .460 wOBA against lefties with a .727 SLG and a .405 OBP. Batting leadoff certainly doesn’t hurt either when you consider his $3,400 salary. Quintana hasn’t necessarily struggled against righties, but he has allowed nine home runs to them, all coming in Chicago. I just think that at $3,400 with the numbers Pillar is posting, he’s worth the salary savings.

Stack Em Up

Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins (Dan Straily) – The Braves are another team that I think will be overlooked tonight. They’ll matchup against Dan Straily, who is posting a .351 wOBA with seven of his nine home runs allowed and a .512 SLG. The Braves haven’t been the strongest team at home, but I think this matchup is favorable enough to make them worth the investment. This stack will also come so cheap, that fitting in pitchers like Severino wouldn’t be a problem at all.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.