After a really tough slate this afternoon, baseball was nice enough to ease up and give us a much easier slate of games. I’ll get you ready for this one, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

CHW (-184) vs. DET – Chris Sale – The Tigers have been a popular team to stack as of late with fantastic results. However, they have a tough matchup tonight against Chris Sale, at least it should be. Sale faced this Tigers team two starts ago and did not come away with a solid outing to say the least. In that game, Sale last six innings allowing four runs on nine hits with a 2:2 K:BB ratio. Sale has been on a bit of a slide since posting a 40.4 fantasy point game against the Astros on May 18th. Since then, Sale is only averaging only 10.8 fantasy points per game and reaching the seventh inning only once. Is it time to be concerned about Sale? I don’t think we’re at that point just yet, but it makes a stack against Sale at least somewhat intriguing. At the end of the day, I’m having a hard time trusting Sale in cash tonight; especially against a Tigers team that owns a .325 wOBA against lefties this season. 

STL (-150) vs. HOU – Adam Wainwright – Wainwright is riding a string of solid starts. In his last three against the Reds, Giants and Nationals, Wainwright is averaging 20.9 fantasy points with a 20:2 K:BB ratio. I can’t say I’m fully on board with him being back on track, but it’s certainly looking good. Going against the Astros tonight, who are struggling to get on base, is a nice spot for him with his $8,300 price tag. Even more intriguing is that the Astros rank third in the league in K% against righties at 25.1%. Wainwright is still below his career 7.5 K/9 right now at 6.3, but he has shown flashes of his strikeout potential, grabbing nine in his last start against the Reds.  

Highest Totals

BAL vs. BOS – 9 runs – I’m a bit surprised that this game is tabbed as the highest run total of the night. Kevin Gausman and Steven Wright will take the mound for their respective teams, but neither guy really struggled as of late. Gausman even had a respectable start against the Red Sox recently, going six innings, allowing five runs on five hits but he did strike out eight. Wright faced the Orioles at Camden Yards and pitched another solid game, going nine innings, allowing two runs on four hits with a 7:5 K:BB ratio. I get the idea that both of these teams have the ability to go off, and the Red Sox at home has not been something to go against this season, but I can’t say I think this will be the highest run total. Just my opinion, but I think both of these pitchers are capable of minimizing the damage when possible. Should you have some exposure to this game? I certainly don’t see the harm, but I’m not going to go crazy either.

Weather Concerns

CIN vs ATL (Turner Field) – A chance of thunderstorms will linger until around first pitch, where it should clear out after that. I wouldn’t rule out a delay, but it certainly should be able to play. 

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Fenway  Park – BAL vs BOS Fenway Park checks in as the most favorable park for hitters tonight and is ranked 7th overall. With favorable categories in runs, singles, doubles and walks, Fenway is always a favorite for hitters.
  • Turner Field – CIN vs ATL – I’m sure the majority of the plus side offensive categories here are from their opponents, not necessarily the Braves. In 2016, Turner Field favors runs, triples and walks.
  • Tropicana Field – SEA vs TBR – Tropicana Field and Dodger Stadium keep switching spots for worst in the league. Currently ranked 29th, Tropicana doesn’t favor hitters in any category.
  • Citizens Bank Park – TOR vs PHI – If you love triples, Citizens Bark Park is the place for you, as this is the currently the only favorable category for hitters.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Jeremy Hellickson.939.296Derek Holland.543.204
Bud Norris.916.293Marco Estrada.564.171
Colin McHugh.912.315Steven Wright.579.190

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Sonny Gray.885.267Noah Syndergaard.523.211
Jeff Locke.858.282Corey Kluber.537.202
Hector Santiago.851.262Marco Estrada.555.165 

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
David OrtizKevin Gausman163.31
Victor MartinezChris Sale363.19
Jose BautistaJeremy Hellickson302.75

  • David Ortiz has only seen Kevin Gausman a handful of times, but he’s made those times count. Ortiz is 7-16 with three doubles, two home runs and four RBIs.
  • This is my favorite type of BvP stats, any hitter that crushes an ace. V-Mart has done just that against Sale, going 18-36 with three doubles, four home runs and nine RBIs. 
  • Jose Bautista has done it all against Jeremy Hellickson. Bautista is 11-30 with a double, triple, three home runs, six RBIs and five walks.

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Marco Estrada – TOR vs PHI – $10,900 Estrada has a solid matchup ahead against the Phillies on the road tonight. Going up against one of the worst offense in baseball, Estrada enters tonight with a 2.57 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.9. Estrada has pitched better at home than he has on the road this season, but even on the road it hasn’t been anything to worry about. Estrada is allowing a .269 wOBA on the road compared to his .229 at home, so the difference isn’t huge. With the Phillies owning a 22.2 K% with a .286 wOBA against righties, Estrada is and should be one of the top picks at pitcher tonight.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Jay Bruce – CIN vs. ATL (Bud Norris) – $4,500 – Bruce has been KILLING the ball lately, AND he’s actually hitting for average as well. When Bruce gets on one of these tears, he’s one of the most productive hitters in baseball. He has a fantastic matchup tonight against Bud Norris, who is atrocious against left-handed batters. On the season, Norris is allowing a .391 wOBA against them with four of his six home runs allowed. On the road against righties, Bruce owns a .400 wOBA with a .622 SLG.

Save Big by Drafting…

Jefry Marte – LAA vs. MIN (Tyler Duffey) – $2,400 – Marte hasn’t been drawing a start every day, but when he has, he’s been making it count. Coming into tonight hitting .333 with four home runs, eight RBIs and a 6.6 FPPG, Marte has quietly been making an impression since his call up. He faces off against Tyler Duffey tonight, who owns a .352 wOBA against righties with five of his eight home runs allowed. Marte is so incredibly cheap that it won’t take much for him to reach his value and he’s been under owned every time I’ve seen him draw a start.

Stack Em Up

STL vs. HOU (Colin McHugh) – Just when it started to look like McHugh was turning a corner, he goes out and throws another crap outing. After posting 24.2 against the White Sox, 20.6 against the Orioles and 33.2 against the Diamondbacks, McHugh seemed like he was in the zone. Since then, he’s earned a combined 16.7 fantasy points against the A’s and Rangers. Tonight, he faces off against the second best offense against right-handed pitching, the St. Louis Cardinals. With the Cardinals owning a .350 wOBA with a .479 SLG and a .204 ISO against righties, McHugh has been getting crushed on the road, owning a .351 wOBA with a .500 SLG. I’ll take the Cardinals all day in this one.