We have a 10 game slate going tonight and pitching is going to be VERY tough to come by. But with bad pitching comes great hitting matchups. I’ll break down this slate for you, and get you ready for tonight. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
TOR (-175) vs. PHI – R.A. Dickey – Dickey and his inconsistencies take on the lowly hitting Phillies tonight at the Rogers Centre. It’s been hard to nail down Dickey this season as he truly has been all over the place pitching wise. One thing we do know is that Dickey has not been good at home this season. Owning a 5.55 ERA with a .357 wOBA and seven of his 10 home runs allowed. Granted, we don’t have many positive things to say here about the Phillies either, but I think it’s worth nothing how poorly Dickey has been pitching at Rogers. Dickey is only averaging 14 FPPG at home with a 6.3 K/9. On the road, the Phillies own a .286 wOBA with a .378 SLG. To be honest, I don’t think I’ll be jumping on the Phillies or Dickey in this spot. I certainly think the Blue Jays can come out on top in this one; I’m just not very interested in jumping on that train.
ARZ (-168) vs. LAD – Zack Greinke – Greinke and his early season struggles seem to be a thing of the past now. Over his last five starts, Greinke is averaging 26.8 FPPG with a 29:4 K:BB ratio. Taking on the weak hitting Dodgers team tonight shouldn’t change his recent success. Greinke has certainly had his struggles at home this season, owning a .345 wOBA with a 5.40 ERA with eight of his nine home runs allowed. In his last start at home against the Rays, Greinke pitched a complete game allowing no runs on there hits with a 2:2 K:BB ratio for 30.3 fantasy points. Against righties this season, the Dodgers own a .300 wOBA with a .376 SLG and a .311 OBP. On a slate like tonight, Greinke feels like one of the few safe options to choose from.
DET vs. CHW – 9 runs – James Shields makes his second start in a White Sox uniform in this game tonight. You may be thinking, how did his first start go? Ironically, it was against a National League team and it ended up being one of his worst starts of the season. The Nationals touched him up for seven runs on eight hits in just two innings. Three of those hits were home runs, bringing his season total to 12. The Tigers are one of the best hitting teams against right-handed pitchers this season, owning a .330 wOBA with a .443 SLG and a .325 OBP. I think it’s fair to wonder if Shields is in line for another bomb of an outing.
The Tigers are starting Matt Boyd, who has looked good for the Tigers in the early going, owning a 3.38 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP in four starts. He’s not going deep into games, which limits his value, as he’s reached the sixth innings only once in his four starts. The White Sox are not exactly killing the ball against left-handed pitching this season, owning a .310 wOBA with a .388 SLG and a .322 OBP.
1) DET vs. CHW (U.S. Cellular Field) – Of course we have a chance of rain in this game. In what’s projected to be the highest run total of the night, we’ll have to watch this game closely.
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Any category that favors hitters has a rating of 1.000 or higher, anything below 1.000 favors pitchers.
- Rogers Centre – PHI vs TOR – Rogers Centre keeps moving up the ranks as a favorable ballpark for hitters this season, as it moves to number two on the overall list. It currently favors all offensive categories except triples and walks
- Chase Field – LAD vs ARI – Chase Field is ranked 5th overall in all of baseball right now and number two on our list for today. Coming into this game, Chase Field currently favors hitters in every offensive category except doubles.
- Oakland Coliseum – TEX vs OAK – The Oakland Coliseum is currently ranked the third worst ballpark in all of baseball just behind Dodger Stadium and Tropicana Field. Triples are the only category favored for hitters here.
- U.S. Cellular Field – DET vs CHW – U.S. Cellular Field ranks 24th on the list and number two for worst ballparks on the day. Favored at this park (and not by much) are home runs, triples and walks.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Jered Weaver||.944||.305||Sean Manaea||.382||.152|
|Aaron Blair||.922||.313||Chase Anderson||.556||.160|
|Max Scherzer||.898||.276||Kyle Hendricks||.588||.214|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Chase Anderson||.951||.321||Max Scherzer||.464||.152|
|Mike Bolsinger||.927||.283||Kyle Hendricks||.535||.193|
|Sean Manaea||.908||.317||Zack Greinke||.647||.229|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Trevor Plouffe||Jered Weaver||17||3.47|
|Albert Pujols||Ricky Nolasco||28||3.28|
|Jonathan Lucroy||Matt Cain||21||2.28|
- Plouffe is joining this BvP section for the first time this season. A huge accomplishment for him, and I hope anyone going to this game lets him know. Against Weaver, Plouffe is 7-17 with three doubles, a home run and eight RBIs.
- Next up is Albert Pujols taking on Ricky Nolasco. Pujols has quite a few extra base hits in this one, as he’s gone 13-28 with five doubles, three home runs and 11 RBIs.
- Finally we have Lucroy taking on Matt Cain. I’m not sure if many players don’t hit Cain well, but I figured I’d showcase this anyways. Lucroy is 8-21 with a double, triple and a home run with four RBIs.
Pitcher to Build Around
Zack Greinke – ARZ vs LAD – $11,200 I suppose this is the best we’re going to do here tonight. I’m not thrilled with this matchup, as I worry a bit about Greinke and his numbers at home, but I think this is about as good as it gets. Overall, the Dodgers aren’t hitting well at all and against righties is no different. Coming into this game, the Dodgers own a .300 wOBA with a .376 SLG and a .311 OBP. When we expand these numbers even more from when they’re on the road, it doesn’t get much better. The Dodgers own a .302 wOBA with a .379 SLG and a .315 OBP. With Greinke pitching much better as the season progresses, it’s the safest option on this slate. Just don’t ask me who to pair him with.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Ian Desmond – TEX vs. OAK (Sean Manaea) – $4,900 – I realize Desmond isn’t the sexiest name to put in this section, but when you look at his overall numbers, he’s been doing some serious damage for the Rangers. On top of that, Desmond faces one the worst pitcher statistically against righties on this slate. Desmond has been hitting lefties extremely well this season, owning a .430 wOBA with a .594 SLG and a .217 ISO. Desmond has not been generating a lot of chatter this season, so I’m curious to see how highly owned, or lack of, he’ll be tonight.
Save Big by Drafting…
Mike Napoli – CLE vs. KCR (Edinson Volquez) – $3,600 – Napoli is a bit expensive for one of the “cheap” players, but no one on the pitching side of things is going to overly kill you in salary tonight. Napoli has been hitting the ball extremely well lately and has a nice matchup against Edinson Volquez tonight. Volquez has been in trouble on the road almost all season, owning a 6.82 ERA with a .365 wOBA. As if that wasn’t bad enough, Volquez has allowed six of his eight home runs on the road this year. I think CLE could be a nice stack on the night and one that could go overlooked.
Stack Em Up
DET vs. CHW (James Shields) – Shields will get his first taste of some American League teams tonight since being traded to the White Sox. He has a tough task ahead of him against the Tigers, who are one of the top hitting teams against righties. With Shields in a horrific tailspin as of late, you have to like the Tigers here. Over his last two games against the Mariners and Nationals, Shields has pitched four innings allowing 17 runs on 16 hits, five of them being home runs, with a 3:6 K:BB ratio. Tigers? Yes, please.