WATCH: MLB IN 90 SECONDS – ERIC YOUNG JR.
Monday night brings us a nine-game slate of baseball. Let’s dive right into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the old’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves – Stephen Strasburg ($12,700) – The Nationals are massive favorites tonight against the Braves as they send Stephen Strasburg to the hill. This will be his third start against the Braves, and he’s dominated the first two. Lasting 14.2 innings, Strasburg has allowed four runs on 11 hits with a 21:3 K:BB ratio and averaged 33.3 FPPG against the Braves. Judging from his numbers in those starts, I don’t think I need to tell you that the Braves are prone to striking out against Strasburg. However, it’s quite telling when you figure Atlanta owns one of the lowest K% against righties at 19.4%. Nonetheless, Strasburg is likely going to be a very popular option across the board, even with the highest salary of the night at $12,700.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox – 10.5 projected runs – The Red Sox have a huge 6.4 projected run total tonight as they set to face Jerad Eickhoff at Fenway Park. Eickhoff has struggled as of late, averaging just 8.3 FPPG over his last five starts with 16 runs allowed in 25 innings of work. After a great start in April, Eickhoff owns a .378 wOBA since the beginning of May with a .511 SLG. The Red Sox haven’t exactly been offensive juggernauts of late, but they’re expected to break out tonight. Even with their recent offensive struggles, the Sox are still an expensive stack to roster, with the majority of their hitters in the mid-$4K range.
No weather concerns tonight!
Now that we’ve entered the month of June, I’ll be switching over to the 2017 Park Factor stats.
Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.
- Target Field – Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins – Target Field is our number one ballpark for hitters. So far this season, every offensive category has been favored here.
- Angel Stadium of Anaheim – New York Yankees vs. L.A. Angels – Angel Stadium has been home to some serious offensive numbers so far in 2017. Thus far, every offensive category except doubles and walks are favored here.
- Minute Maid Park – Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros – As always, Houston is home to one of the worst ballparks for hitters. No offensive categories get the nod here in 2017.
- Citi Field – Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets – Citi Field checks in as our second least favorable ballpark for hitters on the night. So far in 2017, walks are the only offensive category favored here.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Bronson Arroyo||1.017||.268||Wade Miley||.518||.167|
|Luis Perdomo||.882||.309||Stephen Strasburg||.552||.192|
|John Lackey||.878||.294||Jameson Taillon||.603||.231|
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Yovanni Gallardo||.970||.339||Mike Pelfrey||.617||.221|
|Masahiro Tanaka||.945||.301||Stephen Strasburg||.627||.213|
|Bronson Arroyon||.910||.308||Yu Darvish||.647||.203|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Melky Cabrera||Wade Miley||13||2.92|
|George Springer||Yu Darvish||15||2.73|
|Seth Smith||Mike Pelfrey||20||2.7|
*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)
Pitcher to Build Around
Rick Porcello – BOS vs. PHI – $8,600 – If you’re not looking to pay up for Strasburg, Porcello could save you some salary. He hasn’t been great lately, but he certainly has a favorable matchup against the Phillies at home. Coming into this game, the Phillies own the fifth-highest K% against righties in the league at 23.4% to go with a .303 wOBA and a .310 OBP. Porcello isn’t walking many hitters and the Phillies aren’t exactly loaded with power, so this could be a start where Porcello can sneak in a good one. The price is certainly right.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Nelson Cruz – SEA vs. MIN – $5,100 – Paying up for Nelson Cruz taking on a left-handed pitcher is something I will always do. He faces off against Adalberto Mejia, who has allowed four of his seven home runs at home. Cruz is currently posting a .367 wOBA against lefties with a .455 SLG and a .393 OBP. Meanwhile, Mejia has a .365 wOBA against righties at home with a .515 SLG.
Save Big by Drafting…
Jose Pirela – SD vs. CIN– $2,300 – Pirela has been batting leadoff the past five nights and will face off against Bronson Arroyo tonight. We have a very small sample size for Pirela, but in that span he’s averaging 13.2 FPPG with two home runs, three doubles and five RBI. Getting that kind of production at almost the bare minimum and from the leadoff spot is a rare occurrence. I suspect he’ll be very popular tonight with people trying to squeeze in Strasburg.
Stack Em Up
L.A. Angels vs. New York Yankees (Masahiro Tanaka) – At this point, Tanaka is just a puddle on the mound lately. Aside from the gem he threw against the Oakland A’s, Tanaka has been getting shelled. His road numbers are not good, he’s allowing a .397 wOBA with a .555 SLG with seven of his 17 home runs allowed. This is a bit of a risky stack, as the Angels aren’t lighting the offensive world ablaze right now, but you’ll get them for dirt cheap and they’ll likely go overlooked.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.