With a full day of games always occurring on Sunday, I like to use this Cheat Sheet to cover the entire day. Today is obviously no different, so I’ll get you set for all the action taking place today. As always, you can find me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

CHC (-275) vs. ATL – Jon Lester – When will we stop picking on the poor Braves? The Cubs and Lester are the heavy favorites on this all day slate going up against arguably the worst offense in all of baseball. Lester is the most expensive pitcher going today by a wide margin. Danny Salazar, the second most expensive, nets you a $2,400 discount from Lester at $11,000. This will be the second time Lester takes the mound against the Braves this season. Facing them in late April, Lester pitched seven innings, allowing one run on seven hits with a 10:2 K:BB ratio. I have no doubt that Lester will be able to match or even exceed that 28.4 fantasy point total, as he’s been on an absolute tear in his last three starts against the Phillies and Dodgers. Both of those teams are not hitting well at all and Lester is averaging 35 fantasy points over the course of those three starts. The price tag is very high as I mentioned, but I think in this matchup, Lester is worth the price of admission.

WAS (-230) vs. PHI – Joe Ross – Well, when we take a break from picking on the Braves, we move on to the Phillies. They match up against Joe Ross this afternoon, who has been putting up a solid season for the Nationals. His overall numbers look great, a 2.92 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and an overall K/9 of 7.1. However, the only downfall here is that Ross is not scoring us fantasy players a lot of points. Averaging 13.6 FPPG, Ross has been all over the place this season in terms of points. Thankfully, in two starts against the Phillies this season, Ross has been extremely successful, averaging 26.5 FPPG in those games. Overall, Ross has pitched 14.2 innings against the Phillies allowing a single run on six hits with a 10:4 K:BB ratio. At $9,200, Ross should be a fine option in both cash games and GPPs today.

Highest Totals

* SDP vs COL – 12 runs -* 12 runs has consistently been the projected run total for this Padres and Rockies series. It’s only lived up to the hype once so far, as the first game of the series landed on exactly 12 runs. This afternoon, these teams send Christian Friedrich and rookie Tyler Anderson to the mound. Anderson is making his first start in the majors, as the former first round pick complied a 2.35 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP in 30.2 innings in the minors this season. The left-handed pitcher faces a Padres team that is ranked 8th in wOBA against lefties with a .432 SLG and a .328 OBP. The Rockies also get a left-handed pitcher today in Friedrich, who has started only five games this season. For what it’s worth, the Rockies also hit left-handed pitching well, owning a .327 wOBA with a .433 SLG and a .327 OBP.

Weather Concerns

1) OAK vs. CIN (Great American Ballpark) – This game could see some thunderstorms to start the game, but should clear out later in the day. I’d keep an eye on this one though as we get closer to first pitch.

2) DET vs. NYY (Yankee Stadium) No rain for this one, but it will feature a wicked wind blowing out to right field at 22 mph.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Any category that favors hitters has a rating of 1.000 or higher, anything below 1.000 favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – SDP vs COL – Ah yes, Coors Field. The ultimate hitters park, as we all know (and hate). Coming into today, Coors favors every offensive category known to man.
  • Rogers Centre – BAL vs. TOR – The Rogers Centre is currently the fourth ranked ballpark for hitters this season and number two on our list today. It favors hitters in runs, home runs, singles and doubles in 2016.
  • %{color:red}*Tropicana Field – HOU vs TBR% – Tropicana Field currently ranks 29th for ballparks this season. It does not have a favorable category for hitters thus far.
  • U.S. Cellular Field – KCR vs CHWU.S. Cellular Field ranks 24th on the list and number two for worst ballparks on the day. Favored at this park (and not by much) are home runs, triples and walks.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Ubaldo Jimenez.999.358Danny Salazar.498.150
Jake Peavy.984.350Cole Hamels.528.175
Michael Pineda.962.374Carlos Rodon.546.220

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Kendall Graveman.956.340Jon Lester.560.208
Robbie Ray.912.307Aaron Sanchez.580.222
Adam Morgan.886.304Steven Matz.586.230

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Jedd GyorkoJonathon Niese113
Adrian GonzalezJake Peavy262.23
Brian DozierRick Porcello312.22

  • Getting some good BvP for today is not going to be easy. I was surprised that on such a full slate, we had very little to choose from. We start off with a short sample of Gyorko against Niese. Gyorko is 6-11 with two doubles, a home run and two RBIs.
  • Next is Adrian Gonzalez taking on Jake Peavy, which again, isn’t that great overall. Gonzalez is 7-26 with two doubles, three home runs and six RBIs.
  • Finally, we have Brian Dozier taking on Rick Porcello this afternoon. Dozier is 8-31 with a double, three home runs, eight RBIs and three walks.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Steven Matz – NYM vs. MIL – $10,700 – While I don’t hate the matchup at all for either Jon Lester and Danny Salazar, getting Matz at $10,700 against the Brewers is a matchup I want to jump all over. The Brewers are average against lefties this season, owning a .316 wOBA with a .388 SLG to go along with a 22.4 K%. Matz is coming off two mediocre starts against the White Sox and Pirates, as he wasn’t able to go deep in either of them. Matz has faced this Brewers team already this season, going seven innings allowing two runs on three hits with a 8:0 K:BB ratio. Matz has been fantastic this season, and I don’t think these past two starts are a true indication of how well he’s been pitching lately.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Adam Duvall – CIN vs. OAK (Kendall Graveman) – $5,300 – Duvall has been a machine for the Reds this season. Coming into this game against Kendall Graveman, Duvall is hitting .264 with 17 home runs, 41 RBIs and averaging 8.4 FPPG. Duvall has been smashing the ball even more so lately, hitting four home runs in his past 10 games. With this matchup at home, where Duvall has hit 10 of his 17 home runs, he should be in a great spot against the struggling Graveman. On the road, Graveman is allowing a .495 wOBA against righties with a .782 SLG and six home runs.

Save Big by Drafting…

Chris Young – BOS vs. MIN (Pat Dean) – $3,500 – Young has been crushing the ball lately, but you’d never know it from his salary. On the season, Young is hitting .290 with five home runs 14 RBIs and averaging 5.9 FPPG. Not that great, right? But if we look at his past ten games, Young is 12-35 with four home runs, eight RBIs, and seven runs scored, for an average of 11.8 FPPG in that span. He faces off against left-handed pitcher Pat Dean today, which plays right into his strengths. Against lefties, Young owns a .513 wOBA with a .344 ISO and a .750 SLG.

Stack Em Up

CIN vs. OAK (Kendall Graveman) – This matchup at the Great American Ballpark is something I certainly want a piece of. Kendall Graveman is having a real rough go of it lately. His road numbers are horrendous, owning an overall .443 wOBA with a .670 SLG and a .402 OBP. The Reds aren’t crushing it at home, but they still own a respectable team .313 wOBA with a .436 SLG. For what it’s worth, the Reds are tied with the Orioles for the most home runs at home with 51, which makes Graveman and his struggles with keeping the ball in the yard an attractive matchup.