We have only six games on this slate tonight, but we have some fantastic matchups on tap. Let me help you break down this slate and how to attack it. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
NYY (-135) vs. DET – Masahiro Tanaka – Tanaka has been a solid starter in the Yankees rotation this season, except when he’s at home. Coming into this start against the Tigers, Tanaka owns a 4.19 ERA at home with a 1.11 WHIP and a 31:7 K:BB ratio. Home runs have been the problem with Tanaka here, as all six of them have come at Yankee Stadium. The Tigers are one of the top hitting teams against right-handed bats this season, owning a .330 wOBA with a .443 SLG and a .171 ISO. Overall, I don’t hate Tanaka, as his season numbers are fantastic, I just don’t trust him at home as much as I do on the road. I think the Tigers could end up being a sneaky stack tonight, as people may shy away from them with Tanaka taking the hill.
SFG (-128) vs. LAD – Jeff Samardzija – Samardzija has been fantastic at home this season, owning a 2.93 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and a K/9 of 9.1. Going against the scuffling Dodgers lineup, Samardzija is in a fantastic position against this team. The Dodgers are one of the worst teams against right-handed pitching this season, owning a .300 wOBA with a .377 SLG and a .142 ISO. With Samardzija averaging 23.4 fantasy points per start at home, he is an extremely attractive option on this short slate tonight in both cash games and GPPs.
DET vs NYY – 8.5 runs – With Tanaka not pitching well at home and Justin Verlander struggling on the road, this is a perfect storm for the highest projected run total of the night, even though I think it’s a bit low. I’ve showcased what Tanaka has done at home, now let’s take a look at Verlander on the road. Averaging 16.3 FPPG in five starts, Verlander owns a 5.01 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP. Verlander has split his home runs in home and away starts with five a piece and sees a dip in his K/9, dropping from 10.5 at home to 8.3 on the road. I like a lot of the bats on both teams and think this is a fantastic game to stack for both sides.
1) DET vs. NYY (Yankee Stadium) – OH WHAT THE HELL!!!! This game has the potential for thunderstorms all throughout the night here, so this could completely throw a wrench in our plans. Nonetheless, if it does end up playing, this could completely work in our favor if they go low owned.
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Any category that favors hitters has a rating of 1.000 or higher, anything below 1.000 favors pitchers.
- Chase Field – MIA vs ARZ – Chase Field gets the nod as the number one hitting ballpark for today. On the season, all offensive categories are favored with the exception of doubles.
- Yankee Stadium – DET vs. NYY – Another reason I really like this game, with it being one of the top hitting ballparks on the slate. Yankee Stadium currently favors hitters in every category except triples.
- Safeco Field – TEX vs SEA – Safeco Field is anything but safe for hitters (that was awful, Steve). Coming into tonight, it currently only favors hitters in home runs.
- AT&T Park – LAD vs SFG – No real advantage for either team here, as both of these teams play in some of the worst ranked parks in all of the Majors. However, so far this season, AT&T Park is favoring hitters in a few categories, with singles, doubles, and walks. Don’t get used to it though, this will even out soon enough.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Francisco Liriano||.764||.226||Masahiro Tanaka||.540||.203|
|Jeff Samardzija||.754||.264||Justin Verlander||.592||.206|
|Matt Shoemaker||.749||.271||Trevor Bauer||.637||.224|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Francisco Liriano||.836||.283||Carlos Martinez||.450||.192|
|Matt Shoemaker||.785||.304||Jose Fernandez||.664||.242|
|Scott Kazmir||.745||.236||Jeff Samardzija||.621||.227|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Brandon Belt||Scott Kazmir||10||5|
|Alex Rodriguez||Justin Verlander||32||3.06|
|Chase Utley||Jeff Samardzija||18||2.83|
- We start off with a short but sweet sample size of Belt taking on Kazmir. In their 10 match ups, Belt is 5-10 with three home runs and six RBIs.
- Next we have Alex Rodriguez with the biggest sample size of the three hitters in this section, going against Justin Verlander. Rodriguez is 11-32 with a double, five home runs, 10 RBIs and four walks.
- We round out our BvP with Chase Utlety taking on Samardzija. Utley is 7-18 with three doubles, a triple, a home run and five RBIs.
Pitcher to Build Around
Jose Fernandez – MIA vs. ARZ – 13,600 – We haven’t even mentioned Fernandez in this Cheat Sheet yet, but he is indeed starting on the slate. He will be extremely popular, so be prepared for that. At a very expensive $13,600, Fernandez gets a matchup against the Diamondbacks at home tonight. It doesn’t seem to matter though, as Fernandez has been just as good on the road as he has at home. The Diamondbacks, although hitting well, strikeout out at a good clip with a 22.9 K%. With Fernandez owning an absurd 13.2 K/9 on the season, you can almost guarantee that he can rack up the strikeouts here. Oh, don’t worry about a big drop off in his strikeouts on the road either, Fernandez owns a solid 11.9 K/9 away from Miami. Whew.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Stephen Piscotty – STL vs. PIT (Francisco Liriano) – $4,300 – Ugh, last time I hyped up Piscotty, he burned me. At any rate, let’s just do something productive this game Piscotty. He faces Liriano, who is a left-handed pitcher and right in the wheelhouse for Piscotty. This season against lefties, Piscotty owns a .490 wOBA with a .642 SLG and a .245 ISO. Liriano has really been struggling this season, owing a .362 wOBA against righties with nine home runs allowed.
Save Big by Drafting…
Nick Castellanos – DET vs. NYY (Masahiro Tanaka) – $3,500 – Unless you skipped everything I’ve written in this article, you know that I love this game and spot for the Tigers. Taking a chance with Castellanos is something I am most certainly a fan of, as he’s been hitting well on the road. In the hitter friendly Yankee Stadium, Tanaka is allowing a .350 wOBA against righties with four home runs. Castellanos owns a .419 wOBA against righties on the road with a .529 SLG and five of his 11 home runs.
Stack Em Up
STL vs. PIT (Francisco Liriano) – HA! You thought it was going to be the Tigers. It very well could have been, but I spared you. I love the Cardinals in this spot as well, as Liriano is really struggling on the mound lately. The Cardinals are right around the middle of the league in hitting against lefties, but with how poorly Liriano has been pitching, he very well could make them look like one of the best. On a slate like this, you should be able to afford them regardless of who you take.