Tonight showcases a nine game slate with some action in Coors Field. Let’s get you set for tonight, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

CHC (-290) vs. ATL – Jason Hammel – Hammel and the Cubs are by far the biggest favorites on the night. Hammel comes into this start at a VERY friendly $7,400 price tag, but that’s not because he hasn’t deserved it. Over his last five starts, Hammel is averaging 6.6 FPPG and raising his overall numbers to a 3.45 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP. What’s even more concerning is that Hammel has started once already against this Braves team and came back with some less than stellar results. In that start, Hammel went 5.2 allowing three runs on eight hits with a 4:0 K:BB ratio. Regardless of that, Hammel is going to be extremely popular tonight, and I’m on the fence of if I’ll be included in that or not. He doesn’t exactly dazzle on the mound as a fantasy pitcher to begin with, and I honestly think you may gain more by fading him tonight rather than rostering him. Just one man’s opinion.

Highest Totals

PHI vs COL – 12.5 runs – We are back at Coors Field for another series that matches up the Phillies and the Rockies. This one could get ugly in a hurry, as Adam Morgan and Chad Bettis will take the mound for their respective teams tonight. Adam Morgan would fit brilliantly in the Rockies rotation, as he’s been giving up Coors Field like numbers on the Phillies all season. The home run ball has been a problem for him all season, as he’s allowing almost two per game at this point with 11 of his 13 coming off the bat of a righty. Even with some of the Rockies biggest bats batting lefty, Morgan is allowing a .373 wOBA to lefties with a .483 SLG on the season.

Let’s not forget about Chad Bettis either, who is allowing a .367 wOBA at Coors Field this season with a .475 SLG. The Phillies aren’t the most intimidating team to face at Coors, but Maikel Franco is certainly worthy of a look tonight. Nonetheless, I think both teams are worth looking at, as this game should be chock full of offense.

Weather Concerns

ATL vs. CHC (Wrigley Field) – We have a slight chance of a thunderstorm during the latter half of this game. It seems like they should be ok, but this can obviously change as the day progresses. Keep a watch on this one.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Any category that favors hitters has a rating of 1.000 or higher, anything below 1.000 favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field  – PHI vs COL – I don’t think I really need to explain why Coors checks in as the best hitting ballpark for hitters so far this season, but in case you were wondering, it still has a favorable rating in every offensive category.
  • Kauffman Stadium – SEA vs KCR – Kauffman Stadium currently ranks number two overall for hitters this season. Coming into this game, it has a favorable rating for all offensive categories except home runs.
  • Dodger Stadium – SD vs LAD – Dodger Stadium ranks last in all of baseball as the Padres visit the Dodgers for this series. Coming into tonight, it does not have a favorable rating in any offensive category.
  • Minute Maid Park – OAK vs HOU – From one unfavorable park to another, the A’s visit the Astros tonight. Minute Maid Park currently favors triples this season.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
James Paxton.932.344Danny Duffy.387.148
Doug Fister.930.296Rich Hill.469.194
Jason Hammel.876.273Drew Pomeranz.607.322

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Adam Morgan.862.317Doug Fister.553.201
Tyler Duffey.725.270Drew Pomeranz.555.250
Chad Bettis.734.292Jason Hammel.576.198

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Justin SmoakJustin Verlander154
Freddie FreemanJason Hammel113.9
Jayson WerthBartolo Colon131.38

  • Justin Smoak kicks off our BvP section today taking on Justin Verlander. In their 15 matchups, Smoak is 5-15 with two singles, three home runs, five RBIs and three walks.
  • Next we go with Freddie Freeman taking on Jason Hammel. Freeman has gone 5-11 with three singles, two home runs, five RBIs and two walks.
  • Finally, we have Werth taking on Colon. This isn’t really that great of a BvP, but it figure since we were deprived of no good BvP yesterday, I’ll give you the third one to make up for it. Werth is 6-13 with two doubles and four walks.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Drew Pomeranz – SDP vs LAD – $11,700 I’m a big fan of Pomeranz as a fantasy player and a player overall. The kid has some fantastic stuff in his arsenal and consistently puts on a solid performance when he takes the mound. Tonight he faces the Dodgers in LA, which always adds a nice little boost to a pitchers value on a particular night. When we mix in the stadium with how poorly the Dodgers perform against lefties, we have a recipe for success on our hands. The Dodgers own a .288 wOBA against lefties, which ranks third in the league, to go with a.298 OBP and a .366 SLG. With a 21.4 fantasy point performance agains the Dodgers already this season, he has to be near the top of your list to take tonight.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Nelson Cruz – SEA vs. KCR (Danny Duffy) – $4,700 – I think it’s starting to become fairly obvious that taking Cruz against a left-handed pitcher is something we want to exploit as often as possible. I just REALLY like this spot for him against Duffy at Kauffman Stadium tonight. Cruz owns an absurd .583 wOBA against lefties on the road this season with a 1.000 SLG and a .623 ISO. 10 of his 22 home runs have come in this situation and tonight he could add to that total. For what it’s worth, Duffy owns a .338 wOBA at Kauffman against righties with a .518 SLG.

Save Big by Drafting…

Joe Mauer – MIN vs. TEX (Chi Chi Gonzalez) – $3,500 I think Mauer is a nice sneaky pick at first base tonight because, quite frankly, how often do you see him on anyone’s roster? Mauer takes on Gonzalez tonight who has not looked good at all in his first two starts of the season. Mauer owns a .344 wOBA against righties this season with a .402 SLG. The Texas heat will certainly help out tonight and I think Mauer could be a nice cheap way to grab some points in this spot.

Stack Em Up

CLE vs. NYY (Ivan Nova) – The Indians have been one of the best hitting teams at home this season and they have the luxury of taking on Ivan Nova tonight. Nova has been awful on the road this season, owning a .377 wOBA with a .542 SLG. At Progressive Field, the Indians own a .357 wOBA with a .474 SLG and a .361 OBP. Being one of the top teams against righties to begin with, the Indians should make a fine play for tonight.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above