WATCH: STACK TO CONSIDER BOSTON RED SOX


Wednesday night brings us a huge 12-game slate of baseball. Let’s dive right into all the information, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Pitcher Favorite

Alex Wood vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – L.A. Dodgers ($11,600) – The Dodgers are huge favorites tonight as they send Alex Wood to the mound to take on the Diamondbacks. Wood continues to dominate this season, averaging 21.5 fantasy points at Dodger Stadium with a .206 wOBA, a .204 SLG and a .240 OBP allowed. On paper, a matchup against the D-Backs may sound daunting, but they’ve been one of the worst hitting teams on the road, which is slightly mind-boggling when you think about it. The D-Backs enter this game with a .299 wOBA on the road to go with a .292 OBP, a .386 SLG and a 24.1 K%. Wood will still likely be one of the most popular plays across the board tonight and rightfully so.

Highest Total

Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies – 12 runs – The Rockies opened as huge favorites tonight against the Reds with a 6.7 run projection but has since dropped .5 since then, now sitting at 6.1. Nonetheless, they’ll face off against Scott Feldman, who is quietly having a solid run for the Reds. He’s been a bit shaky on the road, however, posting a .348 wOBA compared to his .288 at home. I must admit, as much as it’s tough to consider pitchers at Coors, Feldman has truly been solid as of late. He’s gone as far as no-hitting the Cubs through six innings his last time out and scoring 20.4 fantasy points against the Nationals. Feldman has kept his hard hit rate to 28% on the season, dropping it ever so slightly to 26% over his last three starts. In a DraftKings tournament, I think Feldman could be an uber sneaky play tonight, but again, we’re talking about Coors Field here.

Weather Concerns

New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals (Nationals Park) – Rain will be around most of the evening, but shouldn’t be bad enough to cause this game to be PPD. A delay certainly isn’t out of the question, but it’s worth checking closer to first pitch.

Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Busch Stadium) – St. Louis should be getting some rain during the day today and could linger into the evening. Doesn’t look overly concerning, but worth noting.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies – As always, Coors Field is the mecca of all ballparks for hitters. Ranking number one on tonight’s slate for hitters, Coors favors all offensive categories.
  • Target Field – L.A. Angels vs. Minnesota Twins – Target Field is our number two ballpark tonight that favors hitters. All offensive categories get the nod here.
  • Busch Stadium – Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals – No real advantage for either team here, as both Miami and St. Louis play in less than favorable ballparks. Triples is the only category that favors hitters here.
  • Safeco Field – Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners – Safeco is our second least favorable ballpark for hitters tonight. Walks have been the only favorable category in 2017.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Daniel Norris.984.301Alex Wood.478.190
Gerrit Cole.905.292Ariel Miranda.569.215
Luis Perdomo.892.328Ty Blach.585.225

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Joe Musgrove.934.320Alex Wood.488.172
Ty Blach.850.310Zach Godley.501.183
Daniel Norris.807.295Jason Vargas.596.223

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Nelson CruzJason Vargas303.1
Curtis GrandersonTanner Roark272.33
Shin-Soo ChooDoug Fister332.12

*Fantays Points Per At Bat


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Zack Godley – ARI vs. LAD – $8,200 – Godley has been pitching exceptionally well this season, so to be priced at $8,200 is hard to ignore. On the road this season, Godley has posted a .279 wOBA on the road with a .353 SLG and a K/9 of 8.2. Don’t get me wrong, the Dodgers have hit well at home, posting a .348 wOBA with a .473 SLG but are prone to striking out here as well, owning a 22.4 K%. With the low salary and likely suppressed ownership, I think Godley is a good play on the evening.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

George Springer – HOU vs. ATL – $4,900 – Springer has been crushing left-handed pitching this season, so a matchup with Jaime Garcia is quite an attractive one. Against lefties, Springer is posting a .477 wOBA with a .731 SLG and a .435 OBP. Against righties, Garcia has allowed 10 of his 12 home runs on the year with a .321 wOBA and a .432 SLG. With Springer batting in the leadoff spot, as he always does, this is a matchup I simply can’t ignore.

Save Big by Drafting…

UPDATE: Jason Kipnis is NOT in the Cleveland lineup tonight.

Jason Kipnis – CLE vs. SD – $3,700 – Luis Perdomo will get a taste of some American League action tonight as he goes against the Indians. His troubles against lefties have been well documented, which piqued my interest with Kipnis. Lefties own a .383 wOBA against Perdomo with a .415 OBP. On the year, Kipnis hasn’t impressed much, but he certainly has the capabilities against righties. At $3,700, he’s certainly an option on at a thin second base position.

Stack Em Up

Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros (Joe Musgrove) – In this article, I already suggested Feldman at Coors Field could be considered a GPP play, so why not go a bit obscure with a Braves stack? They’ll take on Joe Musgrove, who owns a .413 wOBA on the road this season with a .575 SLG and a .404 OBP. The Braves certainly aren’t the best hitting club at home, but I think they could be a very overlooked stack tonight in a favorable matchup.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.