LAD (-205) vs. ARZ – Kenta Maeda- Maeda and the Dodgers get the nod as the heavy favorites as they take on the Diamondbacks. This will be the fourth time that Maeda has faced the Diamondbacks this season with some mixed results. In 15.2 innings, Maeda has allowed seven runs on 18 hits with a 15:3 K:BB ratio. Overall, Maeda has been a having a solid season, even though I feel like he’s a bit overpriced at $10,200 tonight. My biggest issue has been the fact that Maeda doesn’t go very deep into games. Maeda has only made the seventh inning twice this season and has never seen an inning more. Overall Maeda is averaging just around six innings per start. While he’s been able to grab some solid scores during those short appearances, it would really take a solid game for him to return value on the night.
HOU vs. DET – 9.5 runs – The Astros and Tigers take the honor for the highest projected run total of the night. Collin McHugh and Matt Boyd will take the hill tonight in this one. McHugh has looked better as of late, which is quite typical of him. He’s a very up and down type pitcher and it’s really hard to figure out which one will show up on any given night. The Tigers come into this game as one of the best hitting clubs against righties, owning a .329 wOBA with a .443 SLG. McHugh hasn’t been stellar on the road, owning a .338 wOBA with six of his 14 home runs allowed to go with a .450 SLG. I would be hard pressed to trust McHugh in this spot as the Tigers lineup simply has too many options that can beat you.
For Boyd, he faces one of the hottest teams since the All-Star break in the Houston Astros. Overall against lefties this season, the Astros haven’t been that great, owning a .313 wOBA with a .317 OBP and a .407 SLG. Boyd has been having issues with righties, as he’s allowing a .333 wOBA with all eight of his home runs and a .449 SLG. With how hot this Astros team has looked lately, I have to figure Boyd is an easy avoid on the night, but a good one to stack against.
HOU vs DET (Comerica Park) – This game could feature a delay to start, but shouldn’t have many issues after that. A thunderstorm could get in the way of first pitch, but as of this afternoon, I wouldn’t be worried overall about this game.
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.
- Progressive Field – OAK vs CLE – Progressive Field checks in as our number one park for hitters tonight and number three overall in the league. Entering tonight, it favors hitters in every offensive category except triples.
- Globe Life Park – KCR vs TEX Globe Life Park checks in at number two on our list tonight and fifth overall. Coming into this game, it favors hitters in every offensive category except walks.
- Dodger Stadium – ARZ vs LAD – Dodger Stadium has been flirting with the worst ballpark in all of baseball and tonight it ranks as number 30 in the league. Without one category favoring hitters, it’s easy to see why this park is a pitchers dream.
- Marlins Park – STL vs MIA – Marlins Park is our second worst park on the night with the Cardinals in town. Marlins Park only favors doubles and walks.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Tim Lincecum||.887||.338||Jose Quintana||.573||.212|
|A.J. Griffin||.885||.268||Matt Boyd||.574||.192|
|Jeff Samardzija||.861||.287||Zack Godley||.614||.229|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Tim Lincecum||1.435||.459||Max Scherzer||.499||.159|
|Zack Godley||.910||.333||Marco Estrada||.539||.154|
|Ricky Nolasco||.866||.316||A.J. Griffin||.559||.196|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Brain McCann||Jake Odorizzi||23||4|
|Joey Votto||Edwin Jackson||22||3.04|
|Dioner Navarro||Ricky Nolasco||21||2.14|
- Brian McCann has absolutely crushed Jake Odorizzi in their 23 matchups. McCann has gone 12-23 with three doubles, a triple (how did that even happen?) three home runs and 10 RBIs.
- Joey Votto is certainly happy his buddy Edwin Jackson is back in the major leagues. Votto has gone 9-22 off of him with four doubles, two home runs and three RBIs.
- Dioner Navarro certainly needs all the help he can get at the plate this season, so maybe a matchup against Ricky Nolasco will do the trick. Navarro is 8-21 with three doubles, a home run and four RBIs.
Pitcher to Build Around
Steven Matz – NYM vs COL – $8,500 – I like how Matz is priced for this matchup against the Rockies at home. Citi Field is a far cry from Coors Field and I think this opens up the possibility for a solid start from Matz. He’s been a bit inconsistent lately and I certainly am taking that into consideration, but the Rockies have been downright terrible on the road. Coming into this matchup, the Rockies own the second lowest wOBA in the league at .291. Think about that…the only team that owns a worst wOBA in the LEAGUE than the Rockies is the Atlanta Braves. The Rockies also have a .294 OBP and a .380 SLG, not to mention their 23.6 K% which is fifth in the league. For his price and his matchup, Matz is one of my favorite options.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Jose Altuve – HOU vs. DET (Matt Boyd) – $5,300 – Realistically when isn’t Altuve a top option on the night? This guy is a stud each and every night, but it’s not hard to see that tonight. Altuve faces lefty Matt Boyd, who is really struggling against right-handed batters, and Altuve owns a .441 wOBA against lefties with a .588 SLG and a .457 OBP. With some of the solid cheaper options at pitcher tonight, I think Altuve will be easier to fit into your lineup than you may think.
Save Big by Drafting…
Miguel Sano – MIN vs. CHW (Jose Quintana) – $3,700 – I fully believe that Quintana will have a good game against the Twins tonight, but if anyone on that team is going to beat him, Sano could be the guy. Quintana has allowed 11 of his 13 home runs to right-handed batters this season and Sano has been a force against lefties at home. In these situations, Sano owns a .401 wOBA, which certainly isn’t shabby for a player priced at $3,700. In these big game slates, Sano is always overlooked, so let’s hope he makes all those people that ignore him pay.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.