Nine games will be played tonight after a tough six game slate this afternoon. Offense will be the name of the game for tonight, so I’ll get you set for it. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

CHC (-220) vs. CHW – Jason Hammel- Jason Hammel and the Chicago Cubs get the nod tonight as they face their inter city rivals, the Chicago White Sox. Hammel comes into this start owning a 3.35 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.5. Hammel has been solid at Wrigley this season, holding opposing hitters to a .268 wOBA with a .329 SLG. The White Sox continue to have their struggles on the road, owning a .302 wOBA with a .307 OBP and a .389 SLG. Hammel is a bit overpriced in my opinion, as he’s usually not the source for a high scoring night fantasy wise, as he averages just 13.2 FPPG. If he were $1,000 less, I’d say think about him. His matchup is certainly a good one, but Hammel becomes really hard pressed to reach the 20-fantasy point plateau (doing that just three times this season). You have better options on the night to gravitate towards.

Biggest Over/Unders

COL vs. BAL – 9.5 runs – The Rockies are involved in the highest projected run total of the night and this game isn’t even at Coors Field. Visiting Camden Yards, Jon Gray will take the mound opposed by Dylan Bundy. Gray has seen a huge boost in his price after getting the nicest three game stretch a pitcher could ask for facing the Phillies and the Braves (twice). In those games, Gray went a combined 20.1 innings allowing three runs on 14 hits with a 24:6 K:BB ratio. I think it gives a bit of false impression around Gray, as before then he had been struggling against quality teams. I don’t doubt he can potentially pull out a good game here, I just want to wave the caution flag here, especially with is inflated price tag.

Weather Concerns

ATL vs MIN (Target Field)- This highly anticipated series has a chance of thunderstorms all throughout the day and continuing during game time. As of this afternoon, this looks to be the only chance of rain tonight, but always check around first pitch.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Kauffman Stadium – LAA vs KCR Kauffman Stadium checks in as the number one ballpark for hitters. Coming into this series, Kauffman favors hitters in every offensive category except home runs.
  • Globe Life Park – OAK vs TEX – The A’s visit the number two ballpark for hitters tonight in the highest projected run total of the night. Globe Life Park favors hitters in every offensive category.
  • Wrigley Field  – CHW vs CHC – Wrigley been the home of a lot of offensive love this season. However, coming into tonight against the White Sox, Wrigley only favors hitters in walks.
  • Minute Maid Park – NYY vs HOU – Minute Maid Park checks in as the second worst hitting ballpark of the night with the Yankees in town. Coming into tonight, only triples are favored here.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Archie Bradley.912.295Sean Manaea.576.194
Mike Foltynewicz.880.244Masahiro Tanaka.606.232
James Paxton.834.283Jon Gray.666.214

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Tyler Duffey.943.319Jason Hammel.581.199
Logan Verrett.894.273Gerrit Cole.609.237
Sean Manaea.784.279Masahiro Tanaka.641.237

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Melky CabreraJason Hammel162.68
David FreeseJames Paxton172.58
James LoneyAdam Wainwright282.42

  • Melky Cabrera starts off our BvP tonight taking on Jason Hammel. In 16 at-bats, Cabrera has five hits, two of them being home runs.
  • Next we have David Freese who is essentially the only player on the Pirates who has had more than three at-bats against James Paxton. Freese is 5-17 with a double, two home runs and three RBIs.
  • To end it all, we have James Loney with some crazy numbers against Adam Wainwright. Loney is 14-28 with four doubles, a home run and three RBIs.

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Lance McCullers – HOU vs NYY – $10,100 – I think this is a fantastic spot for McCullers tonight at Minute Maid Park. Pitching at home this season, McCullers has been fantastic owning a 2.37 ERA in eight starts with a 1.44 WHIP and a K/9 of 11.6. McCullers pitches in a tough division when it comes to strikeouts and seven out of his 12 starts have against teams that rank in the bottom 10 for K% against righties. The Yankees are one of those teams as they currently rank 26th with a 18.9 K%. What’s truly amazing is that in those seven starts, McCullers owns an 11.3 K/9 in those games. With the Yankees hitting so poorly this season, McCullers has to be one of the top options tonight.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Albert Pujols – LAA vs. KCR (Danny Duffy) – $4,700 – Pujols has enjoyed his matchups against the Royals this season and he’s in another great spot tonight. Pujols has been CRUSHING the ball lately, averaging 12.3 FPPG over his last 10, going 13-38 during that span with four home runs and 17 RBIs. He faces off against Danny Duffy tonight who is averaging just fewer than two home runs per game at home against right-handed batters. I feel like even with his recent tear, the buzz around Pujols is almost nonexistent, which will hopefully play in our favor tonight.

Save Big by Drafting…

Manny Machado – BAL vs. COL (Jon Gray) – $3,500 – I will never figure out just why Machado is priced so low, but I won’t be banging down anyone’s door to get this adjusted. Machado has been a beast at Camden Yards, so I have no reason to believe he can’t do major damage tonight. At Camden Yards against a right-handed pitcher, Machado owns a .407 wOBA with a .612 SLG and a .362 OBP. With someone who can stuff the stat sheet on any given night, Machado at just $3,500 feels like an absolute steal.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above