Tuesday brings us a 14 game slate with a less than stellar pitching field to choose from. I’ll get you set for tonight and as always, you can find me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

TOR (-215) vs. SDP – Marcus Stroman – Remember what I said yesterday about not even needing to see who the heaviest favored team is anymore because it’s whoever is facing the Padres? Yup, it happened again. The Blue Jays and Marcus Stroman get the nod for tonight as they take on the Padres and Andrew Cashner. Stroman has been as inconsistent as any pitcher can get this season. So just how inconsistent has Stroman been? Well, since the beginning of May, he’s had seven starts where he had at least 20 fantasy points and seven of 10 or less, with four of those under five. So what can you realistically expect out of Stroman tonight? I’ll be honest- I don’t have a solid answer for you because he’s been that difficult to figure out. For what it’s worth, he’s in the midst of his best month thus far this season, owning a 3.29 ERA in 18 innings with a 7.5 K/9. For his price at $8,400, I think he’s worth the risk against the Padres, although his strikeout potential is capped in my opinion. Stroman has only surpassed six strikeouts twice this season (against the Dodgers and Rays).

BAL (-215) vs. COL – Chris Tillman – Myself and many others were on the wrong end for projections in this game last night. NO ONE expected Yovani Gallardo and Jorge De La Rosa to be locked in a pitchers duel, but that’s exactly what we got. Tonight, Chris Tillman will take the mound and he is dirt cheap at just $8,200 taking on a Rockies team that is certainly not the same on the road. The Rockies have the third lowest wOBA on the road this season at .294 to go along with a .296 OBP and a .385 SLG. Tillman has been solid at Camden Yards this season, owning a .318 wOBA with a .416 SLG with an 8.7 K/9. I think he brings fantastic value and I’d be comfortable taking him in any DraftKings contest.

Biggest Over/Unders

DET vs. BOS – 11 runs – Wow, this may be the highest total I’ve seen in a non-Coors Field game this season. Mike Pelfrey and Steven Wright take the mound tonight at Fenway Park for this projected high scoring affair. It’s no secret that the Red Sox have destroyed pitching at Fenway Park this season. Coming into tonight, the Sox rank second in the league in wOBA, OPS and SLG and first in OBP. I can’t say I like Pelfrey’s chances, and I would have to say that he is in a world of trouble tonight.

For Steven Wright, he silenced his critics, at least temporarily, with a solid 35 fantasy point performance against the Twins his last time out. Granted, this Twins lineup can’t even sniff the Tigers starting nine, but it’s still good to see Wright go back to his old ways. However even with that performance, Wright is still in the middle of his worst month this season, owning a 4.68 ERA in the month of July. The Tigers are a good hitting club on the road, owning a .316 wOBA with a .422 SLG. Personally, I’ll be staying away from Wright in this one and let the bats do the work here.

Weather Concerns

Weather looks to be clear as of this afternoon, but we should know by now that it can change on a dime. Be sure to check closer to game time.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Progressive Field – WAS vs CLE – Progressive Field hosts some interleague action tonight as the Nationals come to town. Coming into this series, Progressive Field favors hitters in every offensive category except triples.
  • Kauffman Stadium – LAA vs KCR Kauffman Stadium checks in as the number two ballpark for hitters. Coming into this series, Kauffman favors hitters in every offensive category except home runs.
  • Dodger Stadium – TBR vs LAD – Dodger Stadium has been flirting with the worst ballpark in all of baseball and tonight it ranks as number 30 in the league. Without one category favoring hitters, it’s easy to see why this park is a pitchers dream.
  • Minute Maid Park – NYY vs HOU – Minute Maid Park checks in as the second worst ballpark for hitters tonight, as triples are the only category favored here.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Nick Martinez1.127.326Steven Wright.568.198
Matt Cain.939.352Danny Salazar.568.193
Bud Norris.939.304Gio Gonzalez.577.198

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Cody Reed1.002.327Doug Fister.530.193
Sonny Gray.898.290Kyle Hendricks.551.191
Matt Garza.892.356Bud Norris.598.233

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Jay BruceMatt Cain162.75
Nick MarkakisErvin Santana402.22

  • The BvP life is quite underwhelming tonight, as we only have two to showcase, and even those aren’t groundbreaking. First we have Jay Bruce taking on Matt Cain. Bruce has gone 8-16 with two double, four RBIs and four walks.
  • The other one we have for tonight is Nick Markakis taking on Ervin Santana. Markakis comes into this game 12-40 against Santana with five doubles, three home runs and 10 RBIs.

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Chris Archer – TBR vs LAD – $8,700 I’m doing it, I’m going for it, I’m rolling with Archer tonight. I swore to myself on numerous occasions that I’m done with Archer this season and I refuse to roster him anymore. Then he has this matchup in a VERY comfortable Dodger Stadium at just $8,700 on the night and I can’t help but fall in love again. For as bad as Archer has been at times this season, he’s looked great at home sporting a 2.95 ERA with a K/9 of 11.1. This game isn’t at Tropicana, but this may be the best you can get for being on the road. The Dodgers only sport a .308 wOBA at home this season with a 20.1 K%, which gives me some hope that Archer can pull out another solid high K game at a very friendly price tag. I think the upside alone is worth the roster spot.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

George Springer – HOU vs. NYY (CC Sabathia) – $5,200 – Springer is the Astros verison of Mookie Betts. He fits perfectly in the leadoff spot for the Astros, but anywhere else he’s easily a three or four hitter. He’ll be setting the table for the Astros tonight going up against CC Sabathia. At home Springer has been feasting on left-handed pitching, owning a .425 wOBA with a .612 SLG and a .404 OBP. Sabathia has been fairly decent this season, but I give the nod to Springer in this matchup. For what it’s worth, right-handed batters have been responsible for 19 of the 20 runs that Sabathia has allowed on the road this season.

Save Big by Drafting…

Chris Iannetta – SEA vs. PIT (Francisco Liriano) – $2,600 – Iannetta has been one of my favorite value plays all season when he faces a left-handed pitcher. You may look at his overall numbers and ask why, but let me break down what he’s doing against lefties this season. On the road, Iannetta owns a .387 wOBA against them with a .457 SLG and a .426 OBP. At just $2,600, he’ll save you a bundle of salary at the catcher position. Liriano has been having his struggles this season and righties own a .346 wOBA against him with 12 of his 15 home runs allowed.

Stack Em Up

TEX vs. OAK (Sonny Gray) – I think this is a stack that will go very under owned tonight, even with a favorable matchup for the Rangers. This lineup hits very well at home, owning a .339 wOBA with a .346 OBP and a .444 SLG. Gray has not looked well all season and has already allowed five runs on eight hits in six innings at Oakland last month. Gray is not going deep into games and throwing a ton of pitches which will never work in his favor against this Rangers team.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.