A weird slate today, as we have 12 games going tonight. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
WAS (-285) vs. SDP – Max Scherzer – Well, this one could get really ugly for the Padres. Scherzer comes into this game with the third highest K/9 in the league at 11.4 against a team that owns the second highest K% against right-handed pitchers at 24.6%. This will be the second time that Scherzer faces the Padres this season where he dominated in the first go around. Scherzer lasted six innings allowing one run on four hits with 10 strikeouts for 29.1 FPPG. Scherzer is very expensive tonight at $13,100, but he doesn’t even check in as the most expensive pitcher on the night, as that belongs to Jose Fernandez at $13,900. Scherzer has been his best at Nationals Park this season, averaging 28.2 FPPG in eight starts with a K/9 of 12. The upside for Scherzer in this matchup is extremely high, and taking him at his high price tag should be worth it.
BOS (-265) vs. MIN – David Price – Price and the Twins check in as the second highest favorites on the night taking on the lowly Minnesota Twins. Price owns an $11,100 price tag, even with his inconsistencies this season. He had a brutal start against the Yankees his last time out, grabbing only 1.6 points in a 5.2 inning effort that saw him allow three runs on 11 hits. Before that, Price scored a combined 64.4 points in two games against the Rays and Rangers. Price pitched 16 innings in those games allowing three runs on 12 hits with a 20:2 K:BB ratio. The Twins have been decent against lefties this season, owning a .326 wOBA with a .321 OBP and a .438 SLG; however, the 23.2 K% ranks 10th in the league and brings some nice potential for Price in this start. With a 10.2 K/9 at home, Price certainly can bring back his value; it’s just a matter of which Price shows up.
ATL vs. COL – 11.5 runs – Last night felt like a pitchers duel for Coors Field, as only a combined seven runs crossed the plate. Tonight we have Tyler Anderson and Matt Wisler taking the mound for the Rockies and Braves respectively. Anderson has been making Coors Field look like a walk in the park, as he owns a 3.26 ERA in six starts with a 1.42 WHIP and an 8.6 K/9. With an extremely friendly $5,700 price tag, Anderson is a very intriguing option tonight against this Braves team. This is truly one of the only series where I feel like I can recommend a Coors pitcher, and I think Anderson would be well worth the low price tag that comes with him.
Wisler brings the end of recommending a Braves pitcher at Coors Field. Teheran was decent last night, but an injury cut his start short. Wisler has a terrible weakness that will be exposed tonight – left-handed batters. Wisler owns a .353 wOBA against lefties with 10 of his 18 home runs allowed. In terms of extra base hits, Wisler doesn’t give up a ton of them, as he’s only allowed 19 doubles this season in 111.2 innings. With that being said, he’s been his worst on the road this season, allowing a .335 wOBA with a .488 SLG. Grabbing the Rockies lefties would be a smart decision tonight.
Seems to be a clear night for baseball tonight, but as always check the weather closer to game time, as thunderstorms are always prone to pop up around this time of year.
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Any category that favors hitters has a rating of 1.000 or higher, anything below 1.000 favors pitchers.
- Coors Field – ATL vs COL – Yes, we all know that Coors Field is the purest hitters back in all of baseball. Every offensive category is favored here.
- Kauffman Stadium – TEX vs KCR – Kauffman Stadium currently ranks third in the league for hitters and will host the visiting Rangers tonight. As of tonight every offensive category is favored except home runs and triples.
- Minute Maid Park – LAA vs HOU Minute Maid Park is our worst park for hitters tonight as they host the Angels. Triples are the only category that favors hitters here.
- Oakland Coliseum – TB vs OAK – Oakland Coliseum currently ranks 25th in all of baseball and is our second worst park on this slate. It only favors triples thus far this season.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Kendall Graveman||.849||.293||Jacob deGrom||.558||.211|
|Collin McHugh||.833||.296||Tyler Anderson||.562||.229|
|Jered Weaver||.824||.280||Cole Hamels||.563||.188|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Kevin Gausman||.871||.299||Jose Fernandez||.479||.175|
|Jered Weaver||.847||.299||Max Scherzer||.511||.161|
|Ricky Nolasco||.847||.313||Kenta Maeda||.609||.223|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|David Ortiz||Ricky Nolasco||13||3.76|
|Victor Martinez||Chris Sale||36||3.19|
|George Springer||Jered Weaver||18||2.83|
- Tonight brings us some solid BvP stats with some elite players. David Ortiz kicks it off for us with his numbers against Ricky Nolasco. Ortiz is 4-13 with three home runs, six RBIs and two walks.
- Victor Martinez hasn’t just hit Chris Sale well, he essentially owns him at the plate. Martinez is 18-36 with three doubles, four home runs, nine RBIs and three walks.
- George Springer is the cherry on top for our BvP section tonight. Against Jered Weaver, Springer is 8-18 with a double, two home runs and three RBIs.
Pitcher to Build Around
Max Scherzer – WAS vs SDP – $13,100 I think this is a fairly obvious pick for tonight. Jose Fernandez is also a nice option, but you’re getting Scherzer in a serious strikeout potential matchup for $800 less. When these prices are as high as they are for pitching, that $800 difference is important. As I mentioned earlier, Scherzer is fantastic at home and his K/9 bumps up to 12 at Nationals Park this season. Against this Padres team, it plays right into the strengths of Scherzer.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Carlos Gonzalez – COL vs. ATL (Matt Wisler) – $5,200 – Tonight is one of those nights where the Coors Field exposure could be smaller than usual. With Scherzer, Fernandez, Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom and David Price all taking the hill, it doesn’t leave a ton of room for expensive hitters. Thus, I really like Gonzalez tonight. Facing Wisler, who I mentioned is downright awful against left-handed pitching, makes Gonzlaez extremely enticing. On the season, Gonzalez owns a .468 wOBA at Coors against righties with a .707 SLG and a .418 OBP. If you can make it work, Gonzalez is worth the price.
Save Big by Drafting…
Victor Martinez – DET vs. CHW (Chris Sale) – $2,700 I don’t care if you’re not a fan of BvP or not, you can’t deny that Martinez has hit Sale VERY well in his career. At just $2,700, and more than likely batting clean up tonight, how can you not take a shot with Martinez? Not only that, if anyone is taking a Tigers stack, who do you think is always left off? Martinez! He brings immense value tonight, and at his price tag, if you’re taking some of the big name pitchers, he’s in a great matchup at a super low price.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above