We hit the middle of the week with a split slate of games and some nice pitching matchups today and tonight. We got a lot we can choose from so I’ll do my best to break it all down for you. Let’s get right into things and as always, you can get me on the Ol’ Twitter machine @Sbuchanan24.
Heaviest Pitcher Favorites
C.J. Wilson vs. Minnesota Twins (-182) – For a small period of time, Vegas seemed like they stopped picking on the Minnesota Twins because quite frankly, they were actually hitting the ball well. That small window of time has closed, and Vegas is now all over the Twins. Today is a prime example of that, as Wilson is the favorite pitcher on the day. Last night, Matt Shoemaker handled them quite well, as he pitched 6 innings and struck out 10. Wilson comes into tonight with a 3.59 ERA to go along with a 1.20 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.5. At the price of $8500, I think Wilson should get a long look at for sure. He’s at the perfect price point where he’s not going to kill your salary cap tonight and has a good matchup.
Sonny Gray vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-152) I don’t even know if I want to say this pick is a bit risky or not. So why not weigh out our options here, eh? On one end, you could call this a risky play because the Toronto offense is a monster. They rank 5th in batting average, first in runs scoerd and OPS and 2nd in home runs. I mean, that’s no joke. But on the other end, we have Gray coming into tonight with a 2.29 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.8. Add on the fact that this game is in Oakland at the Coliseum, one of the best pitcher parks and maybe we have something here. However, coincidently, Gray has actually given up more home runs at home then on the road, where he’s given up five and two respectively. Seven home runs in the first half of the year is honestly nothing comapred to the rest of the league. Priced at $10,700 I think Gray is more of a GPP play then cash, as his high price tag and tough matchup makes him hard to start with confidence.
Jorge De La Rosa vs. Texas Rangers (-149) – Ok, let’s see who the third pitcher is that Vegas likes tonight, ah yes, it’s…….Jorge De La Rosa…………what? Ok, time to bust out the full disclosure of this section of my article, I do not, I repeat, I do not, pick the three pitchers that go in this section. These three are the favorite pitchers according to Vegas tonight. Got it? Great, now we can continue. Yeah, I don’t really get this one at all. Not just because I would never start De La Rosa, but also because he’s pitching in tonight’s game that has the highest projected run today. Honestly, I don’t really have anything positive to say here. Just reporting what Vegas says.
Top Overall Game Over/Unders
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies (Coors Field) – 11 Over/Under– No surprise here. Last night the Rangers actually shut out the Rockies offense, crushing the dreams of many, including myself. Tonight we get Martin Perez going against Jorge De La Rosa. Not much to write about Perez here, as he’s only making his second start since coming back from Tommy John surgery. If his first start bac was any indication, he could have a rough go of it tonight. In his first start back against Houston, Perez went five innings giving up three runs on nine hits and striking out only two, which is amazing since Houston strikes out more than any other team. On the other side De La Rosa, as you saw to my disgust, is actually favored by Vegas tonight. He comes into tonight with a 4.30 average with a 1.43 WHIP. I can’t imagine anyone really on either of these pitchers tonight. I will say that De La Rosa HAS been pitching at a decent clip lately, scoring 21.3, 19.9 and 12.5 lately, not horrible numbers, but this isn’t a matchup where I would be very trusting towards him. As always, have some exposure to this tonight if you can.
Toughest Left/Right Matchups
Toughest Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
Sonny Gray vs. Toronto Blue Jays- That Sonny Gray, doing what he does agaist lefties. Gray has held lefties to a .193 average on the season. Get em!
Anibal Sanchez vs. Seattle Mariners- Sanchez has been having a very up and down season this year, but one thing that has been consistent is his ability to get lefties out. Sanchez is holding lefties to a .206 avearge on the season.
Toughest Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
Jake Odorizzi vs. Phildelphia Phillies – Odorizzi is another pitcher tonight who’s matchup you have to love at the nice price of $8300. His ability to hold righties to a .193 average is the icing on the cake.
Mike Bolsinger vs. Atlanta Braves- Damn, we have a lot of good, cheap matchups tonight, don’t we? Bolsinger takes on the Braves this afternoon with his .205 average against them by right handed batters.
Best Left/Right Matchups
Easiest Pitcher vs. Left Handed Batters.
Julio Teheran vs. LA Dodgers- This is going to be a season that Teheran will like to forget. He’s really been getting knocked around by lefties, who are hitting him to a clip of .305.
Jorge De La Rosa vs. Texas Rangers – Oh look, another negative remark about De La Rosa, one of the Vegas favorites. I wonder if they realize that lefties hit him hard, also at a .305 avearge? But then again, Vegas is worth a billion, I’m worth about $36 dollars.
Easiest Pitcher vs. Right Handed Batters
John Danks vs. St. Louis Cardinals- Heyyyyyy, it’s my buddy John Danks! The ace of the White Sox staff! He comes into tonight with a .315 average when facing right handed batters. What a stellar pitcher!
Colin McHugh vs. Boston Red Sox- McHugh continues to struggle as the expectations were high on him this season. Righties continue to crush him to a .305 average on the year.
Robinson Cano ($3400) – Cano is starting to remember how to hit finally, as Seattle can’t be pleased with that monster contract they dished out to him. Cano is 8 for his last 19 with three home runs, six RBIs, and five runs scored.
Shin-soo Choo ($3800) – For his price point playing at Coors Field, he’s been a nice bargain these last few games. Choo is 6 for his last 8 with a home run, two RBIs, three runs scored and two stolen bases. How’s that for value?
Curtis Granderson ($3500) – Granderson is trying to make the Mets push to the playoffs with his recent offense! However, they still won’t make it :(. Granderson is 8 for his last 22 with a home runs, two RBIs, five runs scored and three stolen bases.
Best Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
Matt Wieters vs. Ivan Nova- Wieters has seen his fair share of success against Ivan Nova. Wieters enters tonight 11-31 against Nova with seven extra base hits, four of those being home runs and a 1.267 OPS. This is a BvP I’ll have in my lineup tonight.
Anthony Rizzo vs. Mike Leake- These two have seen each other a lot in their short careers, with Rizzo looking like the victor thus far. Rizzo is 10-27 against Leake with four extra base hits, two of those being home runs, and a 1.100 OPS.
Chris Coghlan vs. Mike Leake- I usually like to have a bit of a bigger sample size then this one here, but Coghlan has owned Leake so I had to throw it in. I just couldn’t live with myself if I didn’t. Coghlan is 9-13 against Leake with five extra base hits, two of those being home runs and a 2.099 OPS. Impressive sir, impressive.
Two games look to have a chance of thunderstorms from looking at the forecast this morning Make sure to check these prior to first pitch.
Dodgers @ Atlanta
Pirates @ Royals
One Pitcher To Build Lineups Around
Jake Odorizzi vs. Philadelphia Phillies ($8300) – To be quite honest, I think a few pitchers could land in this spot today. When I make my pick for who I want here I base it on a few factors. Value of said pitcher, strikeout potential, matchup and ballpark. In a perfect world, that particular pitcher will exceed in all categories, but that usually never happens. So with that being said, I really like Odorizzi tonight in what should be a cake matchup against the Phillies. I’m beating a dead horse when I tell you that the Phillies are one of the worst offensive clubs in the league. In case you were wondering, nothing has really changed with that. Odorizzi comes into tonight with a 2.80 ERA to go along with a 1.09 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.2. The Phillies aren’t the easiest team to strikeout, but they aren’t the toughest either, as they land almost in the middle of the league in strikeouts. Odorizzi has great splits with righties only hitting .193 against him and lefties .238. Pairing him with say, Lance Lynn against the White Sox tonight could be a deadly little combo that won’t completely kill your salary cap on pitching, but give you some great matchups at a good price.
Superstar Worth Paying For…
Anthony Rizzo ($4900) –Cheating a bit here today going with my famous bVp 4 life. Rizzo against Leake has a good sample size that I’m comfortable with slotting Rizzo into this slot here. Leake has given up 14 home runs this year, which averages out to about a home run a start. With the numbers that Rizzo has against Leake, 10-27 with two home runs, I feel like tonight could be one of those nights where he can add to that total. We’ve been killing it in this section lately, let’s keep rolling with it tonight.
Save Big Bucks By Drafting…
Drew Stubbs ($2900) – If you want to get some cheap exposure to the COL TEX game, Stubbs might be your guy. You’ll look at his overall stats and puke, and then come back up and continue reading my article. Yes, he’s batting .164 on the season with five home runs and a .667 OPS. However, if you’re looking at a COL stack, everyone is going to be on the usual suspects. Rostering someone like Stubbs could honestly be the difference in making or breaking that stack because quite frankly, no one is going to be on him. It could be a complete miss at the same time, but if anything, he’s not costing you much of anything. He does have some pop in his bat so he might even be able to surprise you with something. Just don’t bet your life on it.