Friday evening brings us a huge 14-game slate of baseball. Let’s jump right into all the information for tonight. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Alex Wood vs. ATL ($11,800) – Wood and the Dodgers are massive favorites tonight as they take on the Braves in LA. Wood continues his dominant 2017 campaign, sporting a .202 wOBA with a .200 SLG and an 11.4 K/9. I mean, these numbers are utterly ridiculous when you really think about it. At this point, he’s a near must play in every format no matter who is opponent is. Amazingly enough, he’s only the third highest priced pitcher on this slate, with Chris Sale and Max Scherzer taking that honor. If that wasn’t impressive enough, Wood is allowing just a 6% hard hit rate over his last three starts, which is down 14% from his average on the season.
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles– 11.5 runs – Believe it or not, the Astros and Orioles are tied with the Pirates and Rockies for the highest projected total on this slate. So rather than talk about Coors, let’s dive into this Astros Orioles matchup. The Astros are projected at 6.1 runs tonight as they get set to take on Ubaldo Jimenez. Jimenez has been bouncing back and forth between starting and the bullpen, but as a starter, Jimenez is sporting a .390 wOBA with a .558 SLG. He’s also been walloped at home, sporting a .417 wOBA. With the Astros dynamic lineup, they could and most likely will be the most popular stack on the night.
No weather concerns for tonight!
Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.
Coors Field- Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies – As always, anytime we have a game at Coors Field, it ranks as our number one ballpark on the evening for hitters. All offensive categories are favored here.
Chase Field- Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks -This series could be chock-full of offensive goodness with these two teams going at it. Chase Field is our second most favorable offensive ballpark with all offensive categories favored.
AT&T Park – San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants – AT&T Park is the worst out of all these ballparks tonight. No offensive categories are favored here.
Citi Field – Oakland A’s vs. New York Mets – Similar to AT&T Park, Citi Field currently does not favor any offensive categories.
Pitcher to Build Around
Yu Darvish – TEX @ TAM– $10,600 – I am intrigued by Darvish tonight because I think he’ll be lower owned than normal despite the matchup. With Chris Sale, Max Scherzer and Alex Wood on this slate, Darvish can easily be overlooked. Darvish will face the Rays on the road tonight, where he’s sporting a .260 wOBA with a .298 SLG and a K/9 of 9.8. We all know the strikeout potential when it comes to this Rays team, but as a refresher, they own a 24.3 K% which ranks fourth highest in the league. With the combination of his matchup and the lowest salary out of the studs going tonight, Darvish should be getting more love than he most likely will.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Brian Dozier – MIN vs. DET – $4,500 – Dozier is swinging a hot bat lately, hitting two doubles, two triples two home runs and driving in eight runs over his last 10 games. Tonight he’ll face off against Anibal Sanchez, who has been a nightmare on the road in a short sample size. Sanchez has only pitched 21.1 innings on the road this season, but in that span has managed to earn a .407 wOBA with a .598 SLG with seven of his 13 home runs allowed. This feels like a great spot for the Twins’ leadoff hitter.
Save Big by Drafting…
Mike Moustakas – KCR vs. CWS– $3,600 – The Royals have a huge run projection tonight at 6.1 as they take on James Shields. Against lefties, Shields is allowing a .426 wOBA with a .646 SLG with eight of his 11 home runs allowed in just 18.2 innings. As you’d expect, Moose is hitting righties well at home with a .357 wOBA and a .508 SLG. His $3,600 salary is ridiculously cheap to leave on the board tonight.
Stack Em Up
BOS @ LAA (Ricky Nolasco) – We have a lot of obvious stacks to choose from tonight like the Rockies, Pirates, Astros and Royals. However, I think the Red Sox may be a bit sneaky tonight against Ricky Nolasco who owns a .313 wOBA at home with a .443 SLG. Angel Stadium is certainly not the mecca of favorable ballparks, but the Red Sox have been hitting well as of late and Nolasco owns a 38% hard hit rate over his last three starts. One thing is for sure, you’ll get low ownership on the Sox tonight.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.