We have a small seven game slate going tonight where the pitching is going to be tough. As always, I’ll get you ready for this slate. Feel free to reach out to me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

STL (-220) vs. SDP – Adam Wainwright – What a turn around it’s been for Wainwright from where he was earlier this season. After posting a 5.71 ERA in April and May, Wainwright sits at a 2.31 since the beginning of June. Tonight he gets the strikeout happy Padres, who are not only third in the league in K% since the All-Star break at 26.5%, but are second overall in the league striking out against right-handed pitching at 24.5%. Wainwright hasn’t been striking out a ton of guys this season, reaching nine K’s twice this season, but this matchup always has the potential. Not only is Wainwright the most expensive pitcher on the slate tonight, I also except him to be the most popular.

Totals

ATL vs. COL – 12 runs – Even with the Braves in town, this game is expected to be high scoring. The pitchers in this slugfest are Mike Foltynewicz for the Braves and Chad Bettis for the Rockies. Foltynewicz on the surface may look like an intriguing option on a short slate like tonight, but his struggles against lefties have me off of him immediately, as he’s allowing a .359 wOBA with a .573 SLG with six of his 11 home runs allowed to lefties. Folty has also been brutal on the road, allowing a .380 wOBA with a .589 SLG. A slate like tonight is worthy of getting cute in some spots, I just don’t think this is one for Folty.

So now what do we do with Chad Bettis? He’s taking on one of the worst offenses in the league in the Atlanta Braves and is in hitter’s paradise Coors Field. On the other hand, Bettis did handle the Rockies at Turner Field his last time out, allowing three runs on six hits with a 7:3 K:BB ratio. At Coors Field though, Bettis still worries me, even against a team like the Braves. If, and this is a big if, the Braves can get some men on base, this is when Bettis becomes toast. In those situations, Bettis owns a .387 wOBA with a .519 SLG and six of his 14 home runs allowed. I’m not going to load up on Atlanta, but I’m certainly not jumping on the Bettis train either.

Weather Concerns

Looks to be a clear night for baseball! As always, check as close to first pitch as possible to grab the latest information in case anything changes.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Any category that favors hitters has a rating of 1.000 or higher, anything below 1.000 favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – ATL vs COL – Coors Field is back, baby! The Braves are in town for a series, and we’ll see what they can do in the thin air climate. Coming into this game, Coors favors every offensive category.
  • Fenway Park – MIN vs BOS – Fenway Park is ranked 8th this season for hitters and number two on our list for tonight. Fenway favors hitters in runs, singles and doubles.
  • * Citizens Bank Park – MIA vs PHI* Citizens Bank Park still ranks as the worst ballpark for hitters this season.
  • Oakland Coliseum – TB vs OAK – Oakland Coliseum currently ranks 25th in all of baseball and is our second worst park on this slate. It only favors triples thus far this season.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Mike Pelfrey.913.348Steven Wright.556.192
Mike Foltynewicz.881.256Matt Moore.685.257
Tom Koehler.835.296Tyler Duffey.698.260

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Matt Garza.944.375Steven Wright.655.240
Andrew Cashner.939.305Mike Foltynewicz.685.248
Tyler Duffey.894.300Adam Wainwright.709.256

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Danny ValenciaMatt Moore113.7
Miguel CabreraJames Shields572.1

  • Only a couple of good BvP stats to share with you for this slate. Danny Valencia is 5-11 off of Matt Moore with two doubles, two home runs and three RBIs.
  • Miguel Cabrera is certainly happy that James Shields is back in the American League. Cabrera is 20-57 off Shields with nine doubles, two home runs, eight RBIs and 12 walks.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jerad Eickhoff – PHI vs MIA – $7,300 I think it’s fair to say that Wainwright is going to be the number one option tonight, right? Great. Eickhoff is an interesting number two tonight as he’s pitching at home where he’s been at his best. At Citizens Bank Park this season, Eickhoff owns a 2.46 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and averaging 20.2 FPPG. He gets the Marlins tonight who he faced before (at home ironically) and had a very mediocre start. The home run ball is a bit of an issue for Eickhoff, but this is against a team that only has 59 home runs against righties, which ranks 27th in the league. Eickhoff could be a nice pairing with Wainwright tonight.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Mookie Betts – BOS vs. MIN (Tyler Duffey) – $5,300 – Grabbing a player that is averaging 11.2 FPPG at home this season is something I’m always going to want. That is exactly what Betts brings to the table in this game against Tyler Duffey. It hasn’t been an easy road for Duffey against righties, owning a .377 wOBA with a .539 SLG and 10 of his 14 home runs allowed. Batting lead-off, Betts owns a .386 wOBA at home against righties with a .532 SLG with six of his 18 home runs.

Save Big by Drafting…

Daniel Descalso – COL vs. ATL (Mike Foltynewicz) – $3,400 Here’s a great way to get some cheap exposure to Coors Field with a good matchup to boot. Descalso owns a .394 wOBA at Coors against righties this season and faces a pitcher who owns a .359 wOBA against lefties. Descalso is eligible at both first base and outfield, making him a player you can slot in easily tonight.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.