Another seven game slate takes place tonight after seeing one already this afternoon. Let’s get you set for this one and as always, you can find me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

STL (-180) vs. SDP – Jaime Garcia – Jaime Garcia will take the mound tonight as he faces the Padres for the first time this season. Garcia has been such a tough pitcher to nail down, as he’s been wildly inconsistent. Averaging 14.1 FPPG over his last five games, Garcia has seen scores as high as 27.2 against the Brewers and as low as 4.3 in his last start against the Marlins. This game has me skeptical, as the Padres have destroyed left-handed pitching in 2016. Owning the third highest wOBA at .347 with a .465 SLG, this feels like a bad matchup for Garcia. The strikeout potential still lives against lefties, as the 24.3 K% is the highest in the league, but Garcia has seen double digit strikeouts only once this season (it was against the Brewers) and owns a 7.4 K/9.

Highest Totals

BAL vs. NYY – 10 runs – I was surprised by how high this run total for this game is tonight, as it actually tied the Red Sox and Giants as well. Yovani Gallardo and Michael Pineda will take the mound for this game which is expected to be a high scoring affair. The obvious appeal here is a Yankees stack going against Gallardo, as he owns a 5.77 ERA in 10 starts with a horrific 1.76 WHIP. He’s done a decent job keeping the ball in the park, allowing only 10 home runs, but he’s struggled with every aspect of the game, especially the walks. Gallardo is averaging just over five walks per nine innings at this point, which is going to get you into trouble no matter who you’re facing. If the Yankees can be a bit patient tonight, the walks and hits will come.

Weather Concerns

Weather is looking all clear this morning as of writing, but make sure to keep an eye on it as we get closer to first pitch.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. If an offensive category has a rating of 1.000 or higher, it favors the hitters. Anything below 1.000 favors pitching.

  • * Fenway Park – SFG vs BOS* – Fenway Park currently ranks as the eighth best spot for hitters this season. Coming into tonight it has favorable ratings in runs, singles and doubles.
  • PNC Park – MIL vs PIT – We have to go down the list a bit to find our second best park of the night, with PNC Park grabbing the honors. Currently listed at 11th on the list, PNC Park is favoring every offensive category except home runs.
  • Citizens Bank Park – MIA vs PHI – Quite mind boggling that Citizens Bank Park is currently listed as the worst park for hitters right now. Citizens Bank Park only has a favorable rating in home runs and triples.
  • Busch Stadium – SDP vs STL – Busch Stadium currently ranks 23rd overall and checks in as the second worst park on our list tonight. Doubles have the only favorable rating here at almost the bare minimum with a 1.005 rating.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Yovani Gallardo.958.322Martin Perez.537.167
Matt Cain.911.350Drew Pomeranz.575.212
Bud Norris.864.294Gio Gonzalez.598.205

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Chase Anderson.996.317Drew Pomeranz.575.212
Jeff Locke.850.293Bud Norris.579.230
Michael Pineda.823.278Jeremy Hellickson.721.240

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB
J.J. HardyMichael Pineda153.45
Rougned OdorHector Santiago232.6
Wilson RamosBud Norris192.21

  • Nothing really ground breaking for BvP tonight, as this seven game slate was a bit short on good matchups. We start off with J.J. Hardy who has gone 7-15 off Michael Pineda with three home runs and four RBIs.
  • Next is Rougned Odor taking on Hector Santiago. Odor has gone 11-23 with three doubles, a home run and five RBIs.
  • Finally, we have Wilson Ramos taking on Bud Norris. Ramos has mostly singled off of Norris going 9-19, but he does also have a home run and four RBIs included in those AB’s.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Drew Pomeranz – BOS vs. SFG – $10,600 We don’t have a single pitching matchup on tap tonight that I look at and think “oh yes, this is a no-brainer.” To be perfectly honest, I think almost every matchup has more negatives than positives tonight, so you’re going to have to really weed through how “bad” a start really is for a pitcher tonight. I’m landing on Pomeranz as this will be the fourth time he’s seen this club with some decent results. Now, keep in mind that these games have taken place in either Petco Park or AT&T Park, which is much larger than the hitter friendly Fenway Park that Pomeranz calls home. In those starts, Pomeranz went 17.1 innings allowing five runs on 13 hits with a 15:9 K:BB ratio. The Giants don’t strike out very much against lefties, but Pom has managed a 7.8 K/9 in those starts, which brings me some hope for him tonight. It’s not a pretty matchup, but it might be the best of the bunch.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Matt Kemp – SDP vs STL (Jaime Garcia) – $5,100 – Kemp hasn’t just been great against lefties this season; he’s been great against lefties on the road. That’s exactly the matchup he gets tonight against Garcia at Busch Stadium. On the season, Kemp owns a .460 wOBA in these matchups with a .744 SLG and a .385 ISO. Garcia will come into this start with a .316 wOBA against righties with nine of his 10 home runs allowed coming in that matchup.

Save Big by Drafting…

Pedro Alvarez – BAL vs NYY (Michael Pineda) – $3,600 – Some nice power potential for cheap tonight, as Alvarez takes on Pineda in Yankee Stadium. Alvarez has been his best on the road against righties this season, owning a .432 wOBA with a .661 SLG and a .339 ISO. Five of his 11 home runs have come in these situations along with six of his 11 doubles. With Pineda allowing five home runs to lefties at Yankee Stadium this season, Alvarez, who’s been locked in lately, is a great under the radar option at first tonight.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above