We have 13 games going tonight to kick off the 4th of July weekend! Let’s get you set for tonight, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

BOS (-202) vs. LAA – Steven Wright – The Red Sox don’t have very much to be excited about when it comes to their starting rotation. No one on the staff has been overly consistent except Steven Wright, who draws the start tonight against the Angels. Coming into this start, Wright owns a 2.18 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.3. His price tag is extremely friendly for how he’s been pitching, checking in at $10,100. Wright continues to be overlooked in almost every start, which is baffling to me. This is a pitcher that is averaging 21.1 FPPG and faces an Angels team that owns just a .315 wOBA. The only downfall to this start is that the Angels have the lowest K% on the road at 16.1%. This takes out some of the upside that Wright brings to this start.

STL (-173) vs. MIL – Jaime Garcia – – Garcia and the Cardinals get the second highest nod of the night against the Brewers and Matt Garza. Garcia hasn’t looked good lately, averaging 8.6 FPPG over his last five stars. One of those starts came against this Brewers team, where Garcia went five innings allowing two runs on five hits with a 3:3 K:BB ratio. This is also the same Brewers team that Garcia scored 54.1 fantasy points, throwing a complete one hit shutout with a 13:1 K:BB ratio. Quite a difference. All in all, the Brewers are a weak team against lefties, owning a .311 wOBA with a .330 ONP and a .381 SLG. Their 23.8 K% is one of the highest in the league, ranked 6th coming into this game. I think this could be a decent spot for Garcia, who does own a 7.6 K/9 on the season; I just won’t have a lot of exposure to him.

Highest Totals

LAA vs. BOS – 9 runs – Wright, who is the heavy favorite on the night, is also included in the one of the highest projected run totals of the night, which is always a cause for a bit of concern. Both of these teams are not hitting well right now, as over the past two weeks, the Red Sox own a .327 wOBA with a .352 OBP and a .404 SLG. The Angels check in with a .316 wOBA with a .312 OBP and a .424 SLG. Playing at Fenway Park should certainly help out both clubs tonight, especially the Red Sox, as they take on Jhoulys Chacin in this one. Chacin owns a 5.64 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP. With the way the Red Sox pitching has been going and the Red Sox hitting consistently better at home, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to grab some exposure on both sides for this one.

Weather Concerns

KCR vs. PHI (Citizens Bank Park) – While we may see a delay to start, this game should end up being played and cleared up after a couple of hours. A chance of thunderstorms will be lingering to begin this one.

CHC vs. NYM (Citi Field) – Same situation in Philly, as they should see some thunderstorms to start, but it clears up quickly after in the first hour. We should only see a delay here.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Any category that favors hitters has a rating of 1.000 or higher, anything below 1.000 favors pitchers.

  • Chase Field  – SFG vs ARZ – Chase Field checks in as the most favored ballpark for hitters tonight. It has a favorable rating in runs, home runs, singles and doubles.
  • Turner Field – MIA vs ATL – Turner Field has slipped down a few spots, but it currently ranks 6th in the league and number two on our list. Turner Field possesses favorable ratings in runs, singles, triples and walks.
  • Dodger Stadium – COL vs LAD – Dodger Stadium ranks last in all of baseball as the Rockies visit the Dodgers for a weekend series. Coming into tonight, it does not have a favorable rating in any offensive category..
  • Citizens Bank Park – KCR vs PHI – The Royals go from one of the best stadiums, Kauffman, to one of the worst tonight at Citizens Bank Park. Currently, Citizens favors home runs, triples and walks.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Shelby Miller.990.328Martin Perez.433.147
Nathan Eovaldi.912.285Steven Wright.532.182
Jeremy Hellickson.884.281Michael Fulmer.541.194

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Jorge De La Rosa.910.294Julio Teheran.489.180
Sonny Gray.874.285Johnny Cueto.527.203
Justin Nicolino.868.343Jason Hammel.546.193

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Prince FielderErvin Santana183.77
Daniel DescalsoBud Norris213.04
Adrian GonzalezJorge De La Rosa482.75

  • We have a ton of good BvP for today, so I picked out my three favorites. We start off with Prince Fielder taking on Ervin Santana. Fielder is 7-18 with a double, three home runs, seven RBIs and three walks.
  • Next we have Daniel Descalso against the newly acquired Bud Norris for the Dodgers. Desclaso is 8-21 with five doubles, a triple, a home run, four RBIs and five walks.
  • Finally, we have Adrian Gonzalez taking on Jorge De La Rosa. These two have met many times, as Gonzalez is 17-48 with six doubles, three home runs, 15 RBIs and nine walks.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Michael Fulmer – DET vs TBR – $10,900 Fulmer to me feels like one of the best all around options on this slate. He’s been having a fantastic first season for the Tigers, sporting a 2.40 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP with an overall K/9 of 8.4. No matter how you slice it, this Rays lineup is really, REALLY bad. Against right-handed pitching this season, the Rays own a .304 wOBA with a .297 OBP and a .410 SLG. The most enticing part about this start for Fulmer, is the amount the Rays are striking out. With a K% of 24.9%, Fulmer should be able to grab a bunch of strikeouts in this game and cruise to a solid score tonight. This will be the second time Fulmer takes on this Rays club, where he scored 36.8 points. In that start, Fulmer pitched seven innings, allowing one run on four hits with a 11:1 K:BB ratio. At just $10,900, Fulmer looks to be my number one tonight.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

George Springer – HOU vs. CHW (Miguel Gonzalez) – $5,200 – Springer won’t be winning a battle title this season, but he most certainly is chock full of power. Coming into today, Springer has hit 17 home runs with 48 RBIs, and a .468 SLG against righties. He faces off against Miguel Gonzalez tonight, who is allowing a .344 wOBA with a .451 SLG against righties this season. Springer is on a nice run right now, averaging 10.6 FPPG over his last 10 games. Since the Astros have essentially fallen of the map, I feel like people’s interest in rostering them has as well. Springer should be in a great spot here.

Save Big by Drafting…

Adrian Gonzalez – LAD vs. COL (Jorge De La Rosa) – $3,200 I’d really like to believe that Gonzalez is going to have a good game tonight, I really do. However, it’s been hard to rely on him. Coming into tonight, Gonzalez owns a .273 average with only six home runs, 35 RBIs and a .734 OPS. These are certainly not numbers you’d expect from Gonzalez, a mere two weeks away from the All-Star break. He does certainly have a favorable matchup tonight against Jorge De La Rosa, which gives me some cause for optimism. No matter how you slice it, $3,200 is a bargain for what he CAN do, it’s just a matter of IF he will do so.

Stack Em Up

SFG vs. ARZ (Shelby Miller) – Yeah, Miller has been THAT bad this season. Coming into tonight, he’s averaging a whopping 5.3 FPPG. He’s had only two starts this season where he scored in double digits and those were against the Phillies and Braves, so I mean what does that tell you? He faces the Giants for the third time this season, where he’s averaged 2.1 FPPG (yikes) in two starts. Miller went a combined seven innings allowing five runs on eight hits with a 4:7 K:BB ratio. With this game taking place at Chase Field, you have to love the Giants in this spot.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.