WATCH: STACK TO CONSIDER NEW YORK METS


Wednesday evening brings us a short seven-game slate of baseball. Let’s jump right into all the information for tonight, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Pitcher Favorite

Kenta Maeda vs. Chicago White Sox ($7,800) – Maeda and the Dodgers are favored against the White Sox who are in the midst of a five-game skid. I’m torn on what will come out of this matchup, as the White Sox aren’t exactly hitting well at home but Maeda has pitched VERY poorly on the road. Let’s start with Maeda, who owns a .366 wOBA on the road with a .508 SLG and seven of his 11 home runs allowed. He’s allowing just a 15% hard hit rate over his last three starts, but that comes against the Padres, Angels and Royals. Maeda sports a decent 8.9 K/9 on the year and the White Sox have a 22.1 K% at home, so the upside is here. With the White Sox struggling at home, I think Maeda is a worthy GPP play on DraftKings.

Highest Total

Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles – 10.5 projected runs – The Orioles own the highest projected run total on this slate, checking in at 5.7 runs. They exploded for 12 runs last night, tagging Rangers’ starter Tyson Ross for nine of those. Martin Perez takes the hill for the Rangers tonight, bringing his .343 wOBA on the road with him. Perez has been hit fairly hard as of late, allowing a 44% hard hit rate over his last three starts en route to giving up eight runs on 24 hits in 18.2 innings. For an offense that’s struggled the majority of the season, the Orioles own a .341 wOBA over the past week with a .344 OBP. I think they’re a very serviceable stack on the night.

Weather Concerns

Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles (Camden Yards) – Isolated storms will be around Camden Yards this evening but shouldn’t pose a real threat. It’s worth checking before first pitch, but they should be good to go.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Great American Ballpark – Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds – The Great American Ballpark is our number one park for hitters tonight. Heading into this game, all offensive categories except singles are favored here.
  • Guaranteed Rate Field – L.A. Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox – Guaranteed Rate Field is our second most favored ballpark for hitters tonight. Home runs, runs and walks all get the nod here.
  • Citi Field – St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets – Citi Field is our worst ballpark for hitters tonight. No offensive categories are favored here.
  • Camden Yards – Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles – Camden Yards has the honor of the second worst ballpark for hitters on this slate. Home runs and walks are the only categories favored here.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Kevin Gausman.907.311Zack Greinke.591.206
Drew Pomeranz.870.309Aaron Sanchez.692.224
Zach Davies.867.279Jason Hammel.712.260

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Aaron Sanchez.905.313Zack Greinke.647.226
Kevin Gausman.897.331Jacob deGrom.650.219
Martin Perez.850.312Gerrit Cole.676.241

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Joey VottoZack Greinke322.37
Salvador PerezJustin Verlander582.31

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Justin Verlander – DET vs. KC – $7,900 – Verlander will take on the Royals for the third time this season. In the first two games, he’s pitched a combined 14 innings, allowing four runs on 15 hits with an 11:2 K:BB ratio. It’s no secret that Verlander has had his share of issues this season, and his numbers on the road back up that notion. Verlander is sporting a .342 wOBA in these matchups with a .447 SLG and eight of his 13 home runs allowed. With that being said, he’s so cheap tonight against a team he’s shown success against twice this season, so I feel like this is a good spot to grab him. 

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Travis Shaw – MIL vs. PIT – $4,500 – What else can you say about Travis Shaw that hasn’t been said already? The Brewers’ third baseman has been on FIRE lately, and that could continue tonight. Over his last 10 games, Shaw is averaging 12.1 fantasy points per game with four home runs, nine RBI and three doubles. He takes on Gerrit Cole, who always has issues with lefties. Cole sports a .355 wOBA with a .535 SLG with 13 of his 20 home runs allowed in that matchup. The fact that Shaw still dwells in the mid-$4k range is why I have him as my top hitter this evening.

Save Big by Drafting…

Rougned Odor – TEX vs. BAL – $3,600 – With Kevin Gausman on the mound, you know we have to get some Rangers exposure tonight. Odor is one of my favorites because of how cheap he is, but he also brings plenty of pop. Gausman at home is allowing a .386 wOBA to lefties with a .510 SLG. Odor currently has 17 home runs on the season with seven of those coming on the road against righties. His salary is just too cheap for a hitter who can blast one out of Camden Yards tonight.

Stack Em Up

L.A. Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox (Carlos Rodon) – The Dodgers have moved up the rankings and now own the top wOBA in the league against left-handed pitching. Coming into this matchup, the Dodgers are sporting a .363 wOBA with a .498 SLG and a .359 OBP against lefties. They’ll take on Carlos Rodon, who’s making his fourth start of the season. In his first three, Rodon pitched fairly well and allowed a 31% hard hit rate. This Dodgers club simply has too many hitters that hit lefties well – Justin Turner, Logan Forsythe, Chris Taylor and Corey Seager all own at least a .400 wOBA in these matchups.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.