We have a full 15 game slate going tonight with Jake Arrieta and David Ortiz headlining the night as the most expensive players. I’ll get you set for this huge slate, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

STL (-200) vs. SDP – Carlos Martinez – Another day, another heavy favorite taking on the Padres. Martinez comes into this game with a 2.85 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.6. As I’ve mentioned many times in this article, the obvious upside with facing the Padres is the strikeout potential. The Padres own a 24.5 K% against righties, which ranks 3rd in the league. Just as recent as his last start, Martinez faced a team that is very similar in terms of strikeouts with the Brewers, and he grabbed 11 on the night on his way to a 29.9 fantasy point performance. Even though Martinez has been better on the road this season, his strikeouts remain almost identical in his splits. At $10,200, I think Martinez will be a fine play in both formats tonight.

TOR (-175) vs. ARZ –Aaron Sanchez – The Blue Jays will be playing over in the National League for a series against the Diamondbacks in Arizona. Aaron Sanchez and the Jays get the nod for the second favorite on the night as they take on Zack Godley. Sanchez has been fantastic this season with his best work coming on the road. Sanchez owns a 2.20 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP in ten starts to go with his 7.8 K/9. Sanchez has a good, not great, matchup against these Diamondbacks, who own a .319 wOBA against righties with a .317 OBP and a .427 SLG. The D-Backs strikeout at a decent clip, which always is helpful, with a 23.3 K%. I love that Sanchez is just under $10K tonight at $9,900, as I think his price tag is perfectly suited for this matchup.

Highest Totals

TBR vs. COL – 12 runs – Another 12 projected run total for Coors Field tonight, as Blake Snell and Tyler Chatwood take the mound for the Rays and Rockies. Chatwood has some good overall numbers, but he’s been getting smacked around at Coors (obviously), as his splits show a dramatic difference. At home, Chatwood owns a .357 wOBA with a .471 SLG allowing 30 runs on 47.1 innings with six home runs. On the road, it turns into a completely different story as Chatwood has a .229 wOBA with a .231 SLG and only seven runs in 48.1 innings with no home runs allowed. Once again, the prices are through the roof, but I think this is one of those games where grabbing some exposure where you can will be beneficial.

Weather Concerns

LAD vs WAS (Nationals Park)- We may see a slight delay midway through the game here tonight, as a thunderstorm may pass through. It shouldn’t be anything to worry about though, as it looks to come and go quickly. I would proceed with caution if you were looking to take a pitcher though, so keep an eye on this one.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. If an offensive category has a rating of 1.000 or higher, it favors the hitters. Anything below 1.000 favors pitching.

  • Coors Field – TBR vs COL – The Rays go from one of the worst ballparks in all of baseball to one of the best at Coors Field. As always, Coors favors hitters in every offensive category.
  • Kauffman Stadium – CLE vs KCR – Kauffman Stadium is currently listed as third in the league in terms of favorable parks for hitters. Coming into this game, it has a favorable rating in runs, singles, doubles and triples.
  • Citizens Bank Park – MIA vs PHI – Quite mind boggling that Citizens Bank Park is currently listed as the worst park for hitters right now. Citizens Bank Park only has a favorable rating in home runs and triples.
  • Wrigley Field – NYM vs CHC – Also a bit shocking to see Wrigley ranked so low this season, as it’s 28th overall. Triples and walks are the only categories that have favorable ratings here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Nathan Eovaldi.893.281Jose Quintana.562.219
Jake Peavy.881.309Danny Salazar.573.189
Tim Lincecum.872.333Tyler Chatwood.574.220

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Tim Lincecum1.211.419Carlos Martinez.433.183
Cody Reed1.091.348Jake Arrieta.510.182
Anibal Sanchez.942.321Noah Syndergaard.527.210

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Danny ValenciaDallas Keuchel134.30
Ian DesmondTim Lincecum154.13
Asdrubal CabreraJake Arrieta113.54

  • We don’t have any real big sample sizes to go off of tonight for BvP, but we have some good ones nonetheless. We start off with Danny Valencia taking on the reigning Cy Young award winner (remember he won that?) Dallas Keuchel. Valencia is 10-15 with two doubles, two home runs and four RBIs.
  • Next we have Ian Desmond taking on Tim Lincecum. His return to the majors hasn’t been very successful, and tonight may not be any better. Desmond is 10-15 with two doubles, two home runs and six RBIs.
  • Finally, we have some surprising numbers from Asrbudal Cabrera against Jake Arrieta. Cabrera is 5-11 with two home runs and four RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Carlos Martinez – STL vs. SDP – $10,200 Out of all the higher priced pitchers for tonight, Martinez feels like the safest option of the bunch. Paying up $12,100 for Arrieta tonight feels absolutely insane for someone who is averaging 14.8 FPPG in his last five starts. As I mentioned earlier, I obviously love the strikeout potential with Martinez, and his two starts against the Brewers have me hoping to see more of the same tonight. In those two starts, Martinez registered 19 strikeouts in 13 innings for a K/9 of 13.1. Granted, that’s not the most concrete way of looking at Martinez in this game, but it’s the closest comparison we can make.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Chris Davis – BAL vs NYY (Nathan Eovaldi) – $4,000 – $4,000 for Crush Davis is just fine be me. He’s currently listed as DTD due to an illness yesterday, but it’s being reported that he was feeling much better last night and should be good to go today. Let’s hope he is, because this matchup against Nathan Eovaldi is a great one. At home against lefties, Eovaldi is allowing a .404 wOBA with a .620 SLG with five of his 19 home runs allowed. Davis is playing his best baseball on the road against righties this season with nine of his 22 home runs with a .357 wOBA.

Save Big by Drafting…

Marcell Ozuna – MIA vs PHI (Vince Velasquez) – $2,800 – Wait, what? Ozuna is $2,800 tonight? I’m not sure I understand why, but I’m quite ok with it. Whenever someone hypes up Ozuna, it’s most likely because a left-handed pitcher is on the mound. That’s not the case tonight, but grabbing someone like Ozuna at this price is hard to pass up. His numbers against righties are nothing to sneeze at either, as he owns a .346 wOBA with a .465 SLG and nine of his 17 home runs. It’s not the best matchup he’s ever been in, but he’s way too cheap to leave on the board.

Stack Em Up

BOS vs. SFG (Jake Peavy) – The Red Sox will take on Jake Peavy at Fenway Park tonight in what could be an ugly game for the visiting Giants. Peavy has been BRUTAL on the road this season, sporting a 6.64 ERA with a .373 wOBA and a .571 SLG. The Red Sox continue to be the best hitting team at home not named the Rockies. On the season they own a .367 wOBA with a .374 OBP and a .484 SLG. I think with eight pitcher priced at $9,000 or above tonight, a Red Sox stack may not be owned as high as you’d think.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above>