WATCH: MLB IN 90 SECONDS TOMMY PHAM


Monday evening brings us a 12-game slate of baseball, so let’s jump right into all the information for tonight. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Pitcher Favorite

Lance McCullers vs. SEA ($11,500) – McCullers is coming off his worst start of the season, where he allowed six runs (five earned) on nine hits in 4.1 innings against the Blue Jays. Aside from that start, however, McCullers has been a force on the mound almost all season long. Even with that start against Toronto included, McCullers is allowing just a 15% hard hit rate over his last three starts and a 22% rate on the year. This will be the third start of the year against the Mariners for McCullers, as he’s pitched a combined 11 innings allowing two runs on nine hits with a dazzling 15:2 K:BB ratio, good for a 12.2 K/9 against them. Even though he’s the most expensive pitcher on this slate, I expect him to be vastly popular across the board.

Highest Total

San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies – 11.5 projected runs – The Rockies own a massive 6.3 run projection tonight against the Padres at Coors Field. Luis Perdomo will take the mound for the Padres, and he’s proven to be highly boom-or-bust. He has shut down this Rockies club once already, but as you’d expect, this game took place in San Diego. While he does have some decent strikeout upside, you’d be incredibly hard pressed to trust Perdomo. At home, the Rockies are sporting a .352 wOBA with a .489 SLG and a .345 OBP.

Weather Concerns

Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves (SunTrust Park) – Nothing is overly threatening here, but we could run into a delay with some rain in the forecast.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies – As always, Coors Field is our number one ballpark for hitters. All offensive categories favor hitters.
  • Target Field – New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins – Target Field has been an offensive hotspot all season long. Like Coors Field, Target Field favors every offensive category.
  • Minute Maid Park – Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros – The Mariners will be visiting the worst offensive ballpark on tonight’s slate when they take on the Astros. No offensive categories are favored in Houston.
  • AT&T Park – Cleveland Indians vs. San Francisco Giants – The Indians will be visiting AT&T Park for some interleague action this week. As you’d expect, no offensive categories get the nod here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Matt Moore1.165.406Jon Lester.506.200
Tom Koehler1.147.347Lance McCullers.571.224
Chris Tillman1.020.366Marcus Stroman.631.259

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Chris Tillman.983.360Jason Vargas.629228
Josh Tomlin.886.311Jerad Eickhoff.632.244
Jordan Zimmermann.872.280Lance McCullers.672.225

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
George SpringerAriel Miranda114.54
Stephen DrewScott Feldman163
Jay BruceAdam Wainwright442.18

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Josh Tomlin – CLE vs. SFG – $8,000 – I’m going a bit off the board tonight and throwing Josh Tomlin’s name into the mix. Let’s be honest, he’s been atrocious at times this season, but he’s also thrown some gems as well. At this point in his career, we can pick our spots with him. I think tonight is one of those spots against the Giants. Coming into tonight, the Giants own a .275 wOBA with just a .290 OBP and a .345 SLG. Even with Tomlin posting less than desirable numbers as of late, he’s only allowing a 15% hard hit rate over his last three starts, which is way down from his season average of 31%. I can’t promise a stellar outing from Tomlin, but this feels like the right spot for him.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Mike Moustakas – KC vs. DET – $4,400 – Unless you watched the Home Run Derby, you may not realize that Moustakas is quietly approaching 30 home runs on the season. Tonight, I love his matchup against Jordan Zimmermann, who is sporting a .387 wOBA against lefties with a .562 SLG and 11 of his 22 home runs allowed. Moose owns a .358 wOBA against righties at home with a .519 SLG and a .330 OBP.

Save Big by Drafting…

Matt Holliday – NYY vs. MIN – $3,800 – On the surface, Holliday may look as if he doesn’t excel against lefties, but diving deeper into his numbers say otherwise. Against lefties at home, Holliday is posting a .396 wOBA with a .593 SLG and a .365 OBP. He takes on Adalberto Mejia, who’s allowed eight of his 11 home runs to righties with a .327 wOBA.

Stack Em Up

Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles (Chris Tillman) – Stacking against the Orioles feels like it’s been the common theme in this article, but it continues to pay off. Chris Tillman takes the hill for the O’s tonight, bringing with him his dreadful 2017 numbers. At home, Tillman is posting a .386 wOBA with a .500 SLG. Tillman has allowed at least one home run in his last seven games and 12 total in that span.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.