Only five games will be played this afternoon with the fifth being the late night game. Let’s get you set for this afternoon slate of baseball, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

SFG (-215) vs. SDP – Johnny Cueto – Honestly, I don’t think it really mattered who the Giants were running out to the mound tonight, Edwin Jackson is likely getting rocked this afternoon. Cueto has faced the Padres three times this season and has dominated them every single time. It’s almost unfair how well he’s pitched against them. In three starts, Cueto has gone 27 innings for THREE COMPLETE GAMES, allowing one run on 13 hits with a 25:3 K:BB ratio. Oh, in case you were wondering, that’s averaging 41 FPPG in those three contests. Truly, it’s amazing what Cueto has done to this Padres team. While we can’t expect a CGSO again, it’s hard not to think it could happen again.

Highest Totals

LAD vs. ARZ – 9 runs – – I was a bit surprised to see this game have the highest total of this slate, but then again, we only have five games. Kenta Maeda will take on Robbie Ray at Chase Field in this one. Maeda is coming off his strongest start of the season where he scored 42.6 fantasy points against the Padres when he struck out 13. Maeda has faced the Diamondbacks twice this season, splitting them up on the road and home. At Chase Field, Maeda lasted 5.1 innings allowing three runs (two earned) on six hits with eight strikeouts. Maeda hasn’t allowed more than four runs in a start this season, so I’m having a hard time seeing the offensive upside here.

With Robbie Ray, the Dodgers are one of the worst offenses against left-handed pitchers. Ray has faced this Dodgers team once already, and aside from the five walks he allowed, Ray was great against this team. Ray pitched 6.1 innings allowing two runs on four hits with a 6:5 K:BB ratio. With the Dodgers continuing to struggle against lefties, I don’t feel like this game is going to be full of offensive goodness.

Weather Concerns

No weather concerns as of writing, but always make sure to check right before first pitch!

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Any category that favors hitters has a rating of 1.000 or higher, anything below 1.000 favors pitchers.

  • Chase Field – LAD vs ARZ – Coming into this series, Chase Field has a favorable rating in every offensive category except doubles and walks.
  • Yankee Stadium – BOS vs NYY – Yankee Stadium currently ranks 11th overall for hitters this season. Coming into this game, Yankee Stadium has a favorable rating in runs, home runs and walks.
  • Oakland Coliseum – TOR vs OAK – The Oakland Coliseum is the place to go to see your power evaporate and your numbers crushed. Only triples are favored here.
  • Safeco Field – HOU vs SEA – It doesn’t get much better at Safeco Field either, as it only favors home runs in the 2016 season.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Collin McHugh.851.304Rich Hill.471.197
J.A. Happ.737.275Kenta Maeda.612.206
David Price.693.237Masahiro Tanaka.634.242

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Robbie Ray.852.297Johnny Cueto.534.204
Collin McHugh.779.280Rich Hill.585.202
David Price.725.260Kenta Maeda.614.225

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Alexi RamirezJohnny Cueto192.36
Brian McCannDavid Price282.31
Robinson CanoCollin McHugh282.28

  • Alexi Ramirez leads the way in our BvP for today against Johnny Cueto. Ramirez has gone 10-19 with two doubles, a home run and two RBIs.
  • Next we have Brian McCann, who has found plenty of success against the Red Sox ace David Price. McCann is 10-29 with three home runs and seven RBIs.
  • Finally, we have Robinson Cano taking on Collin Mchugh. Cano has gone 9-28 with a double, triple, a home run and seven RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Johnny Cueto – SFG vs SDP – $13,100 – I mean, in my opinion, this as much of a no brainer as no brainers can get. Cueto has absolutely, positively dominated the Padres this season and never at one point made it look hard. Allowing just one run in 27 innings of work against the Padres is quite the feat along with the other numbers he’s amassed against this team. During those three starts, Cueto has held this team to a .143 AVG with a .179 OBP and a .176 SLG with 16 total bases allowed. Dominance.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Xander Bogaerts – BOS vs. NYY (Masahiro Tanaka) – $4,400 – Masahiro Tanaka is not even close to being the same pitcher on the road that he is at home this season. His splits are vastly different and it favors the Red Sox immensely. At Yankee Stadium against a right-handed batter, Tanaka owns a .354 wOBA with a .492 SLG and a .336 OBP with six of 10 total home runs allowed. Bogaerts continues to crush it at the plate this season with a .369 wOBA against righties on the road this season. He could be a potential sneaky play with people potentially laying off the Sox because of the start against Tanaka.

Save Big by Drafting…

Chase Headley – NYY vs. BOS (David Price) – $2,600 Headley is a super sneaky play of the day at an extremely low price of $2,600. He faces David Price today, who Headley has had a lot of success against. Headley is 10-24 with three doubles. Aside from that, Headley is batting .324 over his last 10 games with three home runs, seven RBIs and going 11-34 overall. At such a short price, I’m more than willing to take a shot on Headley.

Stack em Up…

SFG vs SDP (Edwin Jackson) – I honestly can’t believe that Edwin Jackson is back in the major leagues. I mean, I have to think that there are better options elsewhere then Jackson. Nonetheless, we can benefit from the Giants facing him today and stacking them up. Jackson owns a 7.11 ERA in three starts in the minors this season and a 5.91 ERA in eight relief appearances for the Padres. In 10.2 innings, Jackson has already allowed two home runs with a 7:6 K:BB ratio. The Giants are the stack tonight in my opinion.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.