WATCH: MICHAEL PINEDA PLACED ON DL


It’s been a long week without DraftKings baseball, but it returns with a monster 15-game slate tonight. Let’s jump right into all the information for tonight and start off the second-half with a bang. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Pitcher Favorite

James Paxton vs. Chicago White Sox – Seattle Mariners ($9,900) – No team is a very big favorite tonight, but Seattle and James Paxton are the biggest facing the White Sox. I was a bit surprised, as Paxton takes on arguably one of the best hitting clubs against lefties. In the first half of the season, the White Sox posted a .343 wOBA against lefties with a .455 SLG and a .352 OBP. On the other hand, Paxton has posted a .262 wOBA on the road with a .321 SLG and a .278 OBP. Over his last three starts, Paxton is allowing a 30% hard hit rate with a batted ball distance of 198 ft.

Highest Total

Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds – 10 projected runs – Amazingly, only two games have a projection of 10 runs on this full 15-game slate. The Nationals own the highest projected team total of 5.4 runs, as they get set to take on Tim Adleman. At home, Adleman is posting a .344 wOBA with a .497 SLG and 12 of his 19 home runs allowed. Adleman had a very tough month of June, allowing eight home runs and an overall .365 wOBA. The Nationals continue to be one of the best hitting clubs on the road this season, owners of a .330 wOBA with a .453 SLG and a .329 OBP.

Weather Concerns

Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets (Citi Field) – Nothing is overly threatening here, but we could run into a delay with some rain in the forecast.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves (SunTrust Park) – This game could start late, but after the initial batch of showers passes, this game should play without issue.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Oakland Coliseum – Cleveland Indians vs. Oakland A’s – The Oakland Coliseum isn’t usually known for its offense, but 2017 has been quite different. Starting the second half of the season, all offensive categories are currently favored here.
  • Comerica Park – Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers – Comerica Park is our number two ballpark for hitters on the night. All offensive categories are favored here except walks.
  • Minute Maid Park – Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros – The Twins will be visiting the worst offensive ballpark on this slate tonight when they take on the Astros. During the first-half of the season, home runs were the only category favored.

Citi Field – Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets – The Rockies will be visiting our second worst offensive ballpark on the evening. Citi Field only favors walks so far this season.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
James Shields1.049.278James Paxton.448.170
Drew Pomeranz.928.329Gio Gonzalez.485.179
Gerrit Cole.885.293Jacob Faria.501.205

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Nick Pivetta1.004.286Jon Gray.577.200
Aaron Sanchez.952.313Jacob Faria.586.202
Ricky Nolasco.921.310Jose Berrios.601.208

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Joey VottoGio Gonzalez183.88
Matt CarpenterGerrit Cole322.71
Robinson CanoJames Shields902.4

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Carlos Carrasco – CLE vs. OAK – $12,100 – For a 15-game slate, tonight certainly lacks stud pitching options. Carrasco is the most expensive on the night but he does have some factors in his favor. He’s faced this Oakland club once already in Cleveland, allowing two runs on four hits in seven innings of work with a 7:1 K:BB ratio. Carrasco has also been his best on the road, posting a .239 wOBA in 56.2 road innings with a .276 SLG and a K/9 of 9.5. Even though the A’s have hit well in Oakland this season, they possess the second highest K% at home, 25%.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Ryan Braun – MIL vs. PHI – $4,700 – Braun has a DTD tag on him for tonight, but he is expected to be in the starting lineup. He’ll be taking on Nick Pivetta, who is having a nightmare of a season against righties. Coming into tonight, Pivetta is allowing a .415 wOBA against them with a .639 SLG and 11 of his 12 home runs allowed. Eight of those 11 home runs have come at home, where his wOBA against righties jumps to .465.

Save Big by Drafting…

Ben Gamel – SEA vs. CWS – $3,300 – Before entering the All-Star Break, Gamel was struggling a bit at the plate. Over his last 10 games, Gamel was averaging just 4.7 fantasy point per game with just one extra base hit. However, he’s in line for a great bounce back matchup tonight against James Shields. On the road against righties, Gamel is posting a .403 wOBA with a .488 SLG and a .439 OBP. His dirt cheap salary and possible low ownership make him an intriguing play in the outfield.

Stack Em Up

Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles (Kevin Gausman) – I’m still not convinced Gausman is turning his season around, despite a relatively decent month of June. Gausman still posted his second highest wOBA of the season that month at .388 with a .495 SLG and four of his 14 home runs allowed. The Cubs are about average on the road, posting a .310 wOBA with a .401 SLG and a .319 OBP. They will have the benefit of a DH tonight being in an American League ballpark, boosting their lineup against the weak Gausman.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.