We have our last day of baseball before the All-Star break. Let’s get you set for today and as always – you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

SFG (-225) vs. ARZ – Madison Bumgarner – The Giants and Red Sox are both tied as the heavy favorites as they take on the Diamondbacks and Rays respectively. Bumgarner comes into today as the highest priced pitcher by a wide margin at a hefty $13,000 ($1,400 more than Carlos Carrasco). Bumgarner has been a bit disappointing from a fantasy perspective lately, as he’s averaging 18.2 FPPG in his last three starts in what were perceived as good matchups for him. In three games against the A’s, Phillies and Rockies, Bumgarner has pitched 18.2 innings allowing seven runs on 16 hits with a 17:3 K:BB ratio. These aren’t bad number by any means, but for the price that Bumgarner has been, $14,000, $13,000 and $11,700, they have been a bit disappointing. This will be the second time that Bumgarner takes on the Diamondbacks, and the Diamondbacks are one of the top hitting teams against lefties, owning a .354 wOBA with a .353 OBO and a .483 SLG. Pitching at AT&T Park certainly will help him out, as he’s averaging 24.4 FPPG at home. A fade of Bumgarner in this spot may not be the worst idea you’ve ever had.

 

BOS (-225) vs. TBR – David Price – Ah yes, another day of deciding if David Price is worth taking or not. The highly inconsistent ace of the Red Sox is coming off two solid starts after getting shelled by the Rangers. In those two starts, which just so happen to be against the Rays and Rangers, Price went a combined 14.1 innings allowing seven runs on 17 hits with a 20:2 K:BB ratio. Even when Price is giving up some runs, he’s saving his score with strikeouts. Price will be facing the Rays for the third time this season and he’s had mixed results. When he faced them at Fenway, Price allowed the most runs he’s allowed all season. The Rays tagged him for eight in 3.2 innings on eight hits and a 5:2 K:BB ratio. Personally, I think Price is a GPP play only, even though his $10,000 price tag doesn’t feel too expensive for this matchup.

 

Biggest Over/Unders

PHI vs. COL – 12 runs – Last night the Phillies showed how bad of an offense they really are. In three games at Coors Field, the Phillies have scored a combined 10 runs! I mean, c’mon guys, this is about as pure of a hitting park you can play in. Today the Phillies will run Zach Eflin to the mound while the Rockies counter with Tyler Chatwood. Chatwood has been their second worst pitcher at home this season, owning a 5.10 ERA in seven starts with a 1.49 WHIP. To be honest though, I’m not banking on much from the Phillies here. If anything, the Rockies are once again a fine play.

Weather Concerns

ARZ vs. SFG (AT&T Park) – No rain to be concerned about all day today, which always makes our lineup building lives easier. This game will feature some strong winds though, as a 16mph wind will be blowing out to right field.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Any category that favors hitters has a rating of 1.000 or higher, anything below 1.000 favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – PHI vs COL – Coors Field checks in as the number one ballpark in all of baseball, with favorable ratings in every offensive category.
  • Progressive Field – NYY vs CLE – Progressive Field has consistently been near the top for hitters as it was last year. Coming into today, it has a favorable rating in every category except triples.
  • Dodger Stadium – SDP vs LAD – Dodger Stadium ranks second to last in all of baseball as the Padres visit the Dodgers for this weekend series. Coming into today, it does not have a favorable rating in any offensive category.
  • Minute Maid Park – OAK vs HOU – Neither of these teams necessarily play in a friendly ballpark, so no real advantage for either team. Minute Maid Park currently only favors triples this season.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Mike Foltynewicz1.073.308Madison Bumgarner.508.179
R.A. Dickey.874.267Sean Manaea.583.176
Dillon Gee.872.315Masahiro Tanaka.584.222

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Tim Lincecum1.311.414A.J. Griffin.594.207
Cody Reed1.123.365Junior Guerra.602.207
James Shields.916.310Madison Bumgarner.625.213

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Curt CasaliDavid Price114.63
Jonathan LucroyMike Leake352.68
Paul GoldschmidtMadison Bumgarner412.17

  • So I get that the Casali against Price BvP is a very small sample (11 AB’s) but I just couldn’t believe what Casali has done during that time! Against Price, Casali is 6-11 with a double, three home runs and five RBIs!
  • Next we have Lucroy taking on Mike Leake. Lucroy is 17-35 with three doubles, two home runs, seven RBIs and three walks.
  • Our last one is the biggest sample size on the list. Madison Bumgarner vs. Paul Goldschmidt. Goldy is 13-41 with four doubles, two home runs, six RBIs and eight walks.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Madison Bumgarner – SFG vs ARZ – $13,000 Honestly, we don’t have a lot of good matchups for pitchers today. The Rays have done well against Price before and it’s at Fenway Park. Carlos Carrasco hasn’t been great at home, and Steven Matz gets a Nationals team that hits lefties extremely well. Thus, that feels like it leaves Bumgarner in the friendly AT&T Park for pitchers. Bumgarner has had a good start against these Diamondbacks already this season and now gets to have his home field behind him, where he’s averaging 24.4 FPPG.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Mark Trumbo – BAL vs. LAA (Tim Lincecum) – $5,300 – Trumbo is about as locked in as you can get right now as he heads into the All-Star break. Over his last ten games, Trumbo is averaging 14 FPPG as he’s 14-42 with two doubles, six home runs, 12 RBIs and a .810 SLG. He faces Lincecum, who in his short time back in the majors, is allowing a .539 wOBA to righties with a .759 SLG. Trumbo at home is always an option and has essentially been automatic.

 

Save Big by Drafting…

Daniel Descalso – COL vs. PHI (Zach Eflin) – $3,400 Grabbing some Coors Field exposure at just $3,400 is always something to take advantage of. Descalso is eligible at both first and second base. He takes on Eflin today, who is allowing a .341 wOBA to lefties on the road with a .529 SLG. At Coors Field this season, Descalso owns a .414 wOBA with a .486 SLG and a .463 OBP.


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.