We have 14 games going tonight after seeing the Rockies and Rangers play this afternoon. This slate is LOADED with pitching tonight, so hitters may be a bit of a challenge to fill, especially if you’re looking to take a couple of the top arms. I’ll get you set for this slate, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

CHC (-230) vs LAA– John Lackey – With some of the names that are on the board tonight, I was honestly surprised to see the Cubs and John Lackey tabbed as the favorites. They take on the Angels at home, where Lackey has been this best. Coming into this game, Lackey owns a 2.83 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP while averaging 21.6 FPPG in 11 home starts. Since the All-Star break, the Angels have been hitting much better, owning the 4th highest wOBA in the league at .329 to go with a .337 OBP and a .425 SLG. The biggest kicker of them all has been their complete lack of strikeouts, owning the lowest K% in the league at 15.3% since the ASB. With all that put together, I think in the long term stats, this looks like it would be a great spot for Lackey. He’s certainly priced well at $9,400, and on a different slate, maybe he’s more of a consideration, but I think we have plenty of opportunities to look elsewhere tonight.

Highest Totals

NYY vs. BOS – 9.5 runs – – The highest run total of the night goes to the Yankees and Red Sox tonight at Fenway Park, as we embark on the four-day Alex Rodriguez farewell tour. Luis Severino and Rick Porcello will take the mound tonight in this matchup. I’m a bit surprised with this run total, mostly because Porcello has been downright fantastic at home this season. Averaging 19.6 FPPG in 11 home starts, Porcello has a 3.21 ERA at Fenway with a .298 wOBA and a .381 SLG. This will be the third time Porcello has faced these Yankees, where he’s averaging 21.6 FPPG with an 11:3 K:BB ratio. For what it’s worth, Porcello shut out this Yankees club (one that included the likes of Carlos Beltran, arguably their best hitter) back in April of this season.

For Luis Severino, this is certainly where the high run total is stemming from. Severino owns a 6.00 ERA in three road starts this season with a 1.56 WHIP and two of his eight home runs allowed. Righties have been having a field day with him in his short season, owning a .384 wOBA with a .543 SLG with five of those eight home runs. In a lineup that is very RHB batter heavy, and a team that leads the league in almost every offensive category at home, the Red Sox should have no problem with causing some chaos for Severino early.

Weather Concerns

SDP vs PIT (PNC Park) – This game will feature a chance of thunderstorms around first pitch. It should clear up soon after, but a delay here is possible.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Kauffman Stadium – CHW vs KCR – Kauffman Stadium gets the nod as the top stadium for hitters tonight. Coming into this game, Kauffman has a favorable rating for hitters in every offensive category except home runs.
  • Fenway Park – NYY vs BOS – Fenway Park will host the short lived Alex Rodriguez farewell tour starting tonight. Aside from that, Fenway comes into this series favoring all offensive categories except home runs and walks.
  • Oakland Coliseum – BAL vs OAK – The Coliseum checks in as our worst ballpark for hitters tonight. With the Orioles in town, the Coliseum only favors triples.
  • Dodger Stadium – PHI vs LAD – Dodger Stadium has bumped up a couple of spots recently, but it still ranks as our second worst park for tonight. We don’t have any categories favored here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Wily Peralta.954.333Chris Sale.611.195
Luis Perdomo.860.320Rick Porcello.628.228
Tyrell Jenkins.832.265Marco Estrada.631.199

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Wily Peralta1.038.378Max Scherzer.481.152
Luis Perdomo.930.345Marco Estrada.541.159
Luis Severino.903.296Kenta Maeda.591.224

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Josh DonaldsonDrew Smyly173.58
Jacoby EllsburyRick Porcello282.85
Lorenzo CainChris Sale491.95

  • Donaldson has crushed Drew Smyly in his career, much as many hitters have in the league this season. In 17 at-bats, Donaldson has eight hits, three of them being doubles, three home runs and four RBIs.
  • I was shocked at this, as Ellsbury is no home run hitter (except for one season). Against Porcello, Ellsbury is 12-28 with two doubles, four home runs and four RBIs.
  • Finally, we have a decent BvP with Lorenzo Cain taking on Chris Sale. Cain is 17-49 with four doubles, three home runs and eight RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Rick Porcello – BOS vs NYY – $9,900 – I know we have some big names on the slate tonight, but I think Pretty Ricky is the way to go. He’s done well against this Yankees team twice already, and this team isn’t exactly getting much stronger. If anything, they’re heading in the opposite direction. Believe it or not, the Yankees actually own the lowest wOBA in the league on the road at .299 to go with a .306 OBP (25th) and a .381 SLG (30th). Porcello has been as consistent as it gets, grabbing at least 20 fantasy points in five straight games and seven out of his last 10.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Joey Votto – CIN vs. STL (Mike Leake) – $5,000 – Votto has been one of the hottest hitters in the league in the second half and tonight will matchup against Mike Leake. On the road against a right-handed pitcher this season, Votto owns a .406 wOBA with a .519 SLG with five home runs. Against lefties at home, Leake is allowing a .362 wOBA with a .541 SLG with seven of his 18 home runs allowed. Call me crazy, but that sounds prettyyyyyyy good to me.

Save Big by Drafting…

Troy Tulowitzki – TOR vs. TBR (Drew Smyly) – $3,200 – A lot of the attention in this game will be Donaldson against Drew Smyly. Donaldson has some solid BvP numbers against Smyly, so naturally people will gravitate towards him. I like Tulo in this spot as well seeing that he’s seen a lot of his production come at home against lefties. Tulo owns a .346 wOBA in these situations with a .459 SLG. With how much Smyly is struggling this season (aside from his last two starts) Tulo is cheap enough for a look.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.