Welcome to the weekend! We have a full slate of games going today, with the exception of the 1 pm game between the Blue Jays and Yankees. Since this game starts at 1 and doesn’t really fit into any of the contests today, we’re going to skip out on that one. Otherwise, we have an afternoon slate with five games and tonight with nine games. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Heaviest Pitcher Favorites
Stephen Strasburg vs. Colorado Rockies (-182) – This can’t be serious……Strasburg, making his return from the 15-Day DL, gets the Rockies tonight, and Vegas is all “Oh yeah, he’s the favorite tonight, we’re the experts mehhhhh.” Give me a break! Strasburg enters tonight with a 5.16 ERA to go with a 1.49 WHIP and a K/9 of 9.3. Righties were hiting .311 before he went on the DL I mean, I don’t see much of anything here that I like. With his cost at $10,100, it makes rostering him even worse. It’s certainly not like the Rockies are struggling offensively, as they own a team wOBA of .345 over the past two weeks, good for 7th in the league. Strasburg did have a successful rehab start as he struck out 11, but again, I need to see more. I just can’t come up with a good reason to roster Strasburg tonight, unless you want to be “that guy” and hope for the best. Let me know if you roster him, it’s nice to meet brave people every once in a while.
Tyson Ross vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-171)- At least this one makes more sense then Strasburg. Ross gets a start against the Phillies tonight at Petco Park. Coming into tonight, Ross owns a 3.37 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and a K/9 of 9.6. Ross has been pitching much better as of late, scoring 18.1, 19.7 and 18 in his previous three starts. Granted, they weren’t against stellar teams, Milwaukee, New York Mets and Miami, but we’ll take it. I’ve been telling you that the Phillies have been hitting much better over the past two weeks, as they were first in wOBA, but as of this past week, they’ve dropped to 10th. Certainly still a good positon to be in, but they’re dropping a bit. Ross is a bit expensive tonight, at $10,600, but pitching at home is always an advantage for any pitcher at Petco.
Trevor Bauer vs. Minnesota Twins (-145) – Bauer, in my opinion, is one of the hardest pitchers to correctly predict. He’s all over the place. In his last two starts, Bauer has pitched well, allowing 2 runs over a 15.1 span. But then again, before that he allowed six runs to the White Sox, but struck out nine. So like I mentioned, he’s erratic. One factor he does have going for him today, is that he’s facing a weak Twins team. Over the past two weeks, the Twins rank 24th in team wOBA and overall rank 22nd in batting avearge, 11th in runs scored, 20th in OPS and 18th in home runs. On paper, this should be an easy start for Bauer. His price tag is better than the previous two starters we showcased, as he comes into tonight at $9800. Would I personally roster Bauer tonight? I think I would certainly give it some thought, I’ve just personally been burned by Bauer many team this season.
Top Overall Game Over/Unders
Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers (Comerica Park) – 9 Over/Under- Second night in a row these two teams are projected to score the most amount of runs on the day. Wade Miley goes up against Alfredo Simon in this stellar pitching matchup. Miley, has pitched quite well as of late. He owns seven quality starts in his last 10, which might comes as a surprise to some, as his overall numbers don’t really reflect that. Miley owns a 4.55 ERA to go with a 1.39 WHIP and a K/9 of 6.5. He’s pitched better on road compared to home, but the numbers are pretty similar and nothing impressive. Of course, the Tigers own one of the best offenses in the league, ranked first in batting avearge at .275, which is an incredible number. As for Simon, he’s coming off a groin injury, where his last start was skipped so he could get some extra rest. He enters tonight with a 4.55 ERA to go with a 1.43 WHIP and a K/9 of 6.4. Simon especially struggles against lefties, as they hit .306 off of him. As always, get some exposure to this game.
Toughest Left/Right Matchups
Toughest Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
Martin Perez vs. Seattle Mariners – Perez is not somone I’ll recommend, as overall, he’s been a mess. However I’ll give credit where credit is due, as he’s done very well against lefties. They’re only hitting .136 off of Perez this season. That’s about the only good thing that Perez does though.
Francisco Lirinao vs. LA Dodgers- Liriano has just been such a force on the mound this season. Against lefties, he continues to shut them down, as they’ve only managed a .184 avearge against him.
Toughest Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
Jaime Garcia vs. Milwaukee Brewers- Garica has been having a hard time staying healthy this season, and every season it seems. But when he’s on the mound, he’s a fantastic pitcher. Coming into tonight, he’s holding righties to a .184 average.
Francisco Liriano vs. LA Dodgers- Oh hey,it’s that Liriano guy again, doing what he does. The Dodgers are seemingly going to have a tough afternoon, as Lirinao is also tough against righties, allowing a .206 avearge.
Best Left/Right Matchups
Easiest Pitcher vs. Left Handed Batters.
Matt Cain vs. Chicago Cubs – Cain hasn’t been having a good season, especially so when facing lefties. They’re hitting him with their eyes closed, and still obtaining a .352 average against Cain.
Eddie Butler vs. Washington Nationals- Butler is now slated to start tonight instead of Yohan Flande. A surefire boost to the Nationals offense. Butler is allowing a .343 avearge against lefties. Good choice!
Easiest Pitcher vs. Right Handed Batters
Martin Perez vs. Seattle Mariners- Remember when I said Perez against lefties was the only good thing he does? He’s a perfect example of that. While lefties are no issues for Perez, he’s allowing a .350 average against righties. Yup.
Stephen Strasburg vs. Colorado Rockies – As if we needed further conformation that this start for Strasburh could be a disaster, he’s allowing a .311 average against right handed batters. Best of luck in your further endeavors Steve.
Josh Donaldson ($6100) – If Donaldson isn’t on this list for a day or two, make no mistake, he’ll be back. Donaldson is 8 for his last 27 with five home runs, nine RBIs, eight runs scored, and a “what the hell, why not” stolen base.
Kyle Schwarber ($4100) – Schwarber is quickly moving up the ranks as a player that we continue to roster on a nightly basis. Schwarber is 8 for his last 19 with three home runs, eight RBIs, nine runs scored, and yeah, let’s throw in a stolen base for good measure.
Jose Bautista ($5200) – When Donaldson AND Bautista are hot at the same time, good god, watch out. Bautista is 9 for his last 29 with four home runs, nine RBIs, seven runs scored, and a stolen base, just to join the Hottest Hitters club.
Best Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
Melky Cabrera vs. Jeremy Guthrie- Cabrera and Guthrie have faced off many times in thier careers. Guthrie has kept the ball in the park, but Cabrera has still seen good suceess off of him. I mean, who doens’t hit Guthrie well? Cabrera is 16-44 with seven extra base hits, one of those being a home run, and a .955 OPS.
Torii Hunter vs. Trevor Bauer – This one is a small sample, but man, does Hunter crush Bauer or what? Hunter is 6-12 against Bauer with four extra base hits, two of those being home runs, and a 1.667 OPS.
Matt Carpenter vs. Wily Peralta – Carpenter enters tonight with the thought of whacking Peralta around again, like he has his entire career. Carpenter is 12-27 against Peralta with three extra base hits, one of them being a home run, and a 1.146 OPS.
The Dodgers and Pirates have a threat of rain tonight. It shouldn’t be enough to cancel the game, but it does have the potential to delay it at somepoint. Watch this one closely.
One Pitcher To Build Lineups Around
Noah Syndergaard ($11,500) – Syndergaard is the most expensive pitcher on the day, but on a day/night with no one exactly blowing me away, we’re going to have the pony up the dough for this one. Syndergaard enters tonight with a 2.66 ERA to go with a 1.06 WHIP and a K/9 of 9.5. The Rays are not a good offensive club by any means, as they rank 27th in batting avearge and runs scored, 22nd in OPS and 13th in home runs. Over the past two weeks, the Rays are 20th in wOBA at .305 with a K% of 22.2, the 4th highest in the league. All all this together, and you have no excuse to not pay up for Noah’s Arc tonight.
Superstar Worth Paying For
Nelson Cruz ($5400) – Again, another expensive player, but someone who can crush his opponent this afternoon. Cruz has a tasty matchup against Martin Perez, who is allowing a .350 average to right handed bats on the season. Cruz has been crushing pitching this year, espicially left handed pithers. On the season, Cruz is batting .385 against them with nine home runs and a 1.214 OPS. Granted, the majorety of Cruz’s home runs have come on the road, but the treat is always here.
Save Big Bucks By Drafting…
Avisail Garcia ($3400) – This one might be a bit of a stretch, but I think it could at least be a sneak play tonight. Garcia gets Jeremy Guthrie tonight, who gives up a lot of home runs. Garcia has some power batting against right handed pitchers, hitting seven of his nine home runs. Averaging 1.4 home runs to start, Guthrie is always someone who can give up a long ball or seven.