It just goes to show how fickle the sport of baseball really is. Two days ago, we had a horrible Cheat Sheet where the advice given didn’t work out that well. Last night, complete opposite. We hit on a couple of BvP guys, A-Rod had a fantastic game and if you took Archer, that worked out pretty well too. Let’s keep it going today. We have a full split slate of games today, so let’s jump right into things and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Heaviest Pitcher Favorites
Drew Hutchison vs. Minnesota Twins (-189) – Well, we start off with an average pitcher going up against a below average team. How exciting. Hutchison gets the nod for the favorite pitcher of the night, according to Vegas, as he takes on the Twins. I had to keep scrolling down the list of pitchers going today, since Hutchison is only going to cost you $5400, that is if you decide to take a flier on him. He enters today’s start against the Twins with a 5.42 ERA to go with a 1.50 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.9. Don’t let his record fool you, he’s a perfect example of how wins and losses should be caculated in a different manner in baseball. Hutchison hasn’t recorded a quality start since June 6th, which that in itself is a sure fire reason to stay away. Even with how weak the Twins offense is, I couldn’t start Hutchison tonight. Averaging 11.4 points per start, you can certainly look elsewhere.
Madison Bumgarner vs. Atlanta Braves (-178)- This is why you should pay for pitching. Instead of rostering Hutchison and hoping and praying to every higher power that you know of, you could simply pay up and get Bumgarner agaisnt the Braves. Granted, Bumgarner is the third most expensive pitcher on the night but he gets a Braves offense that’s struggled all season and is once again missing Freddie Freeman. Yes, the Braves are hitting better lately, they’ve moved all the way up to the 15th spot in league in batting avearge, but in the last two weeks, the Braves have a combined wOBA of.269, good for 27th in the league. Not impressive. They’re a tough team to strike out, at 27th in the league, but I feel confident that Bumgarner will pull out a nice start here. I’d rely on Bumgarner more than sweating it out with Hutch.
Brett Anderson vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-171) – Well, Anderson is facing the Phillies, so that’s your answer to why he’s here. I mean, let’s be honest, Anderson isn’t a bad pitcher in the real world by any means. He comes into tonight with a 3.14 ERA to go with a 1.29 WHIP and a K/9 of 6.2. The problem with Anderson is that he just doesn’t score us fantasy players enough points. Averaging 13.7 per start, Anderson justifies his low salary of $6700. So while his numbers against a weak Phillies offense may sound enticing, you’re going to get exactly what you pay for. Six or seven innings of three run baseball while allowing five or six hits and striking out three. Boom, you got your points. He certainly can be a nice companion to one of the high priced pitchers tonight, just keep your expectations in check.
Top Overall Game Over/Unders
Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies (Coors Field) – 11 Over/Under- Even though I know a game is playing in Coors, I still double check to make sure it has the highest projected run total of the day. Without a doubt, it always is. But, the one time I won’t check…..Anyways, Taijuan Walker faces Chris Rusin tonight. Walker enters with a 4.73 ERA to go with a 1.23 WHIP. He’s been extremely inconsistent this season, but he’s coming off a fantastic start against the Twins where he fired a one run complete game striking out 11. Walker certainly has the potential to make these type of starts, I just wouldn’t use Coors Field as a testing ground for that. Be careful of the long ball here, home runs are an issue for Walker, as he’s allowed 20 on the season. Advantage: Rockies. As for Rusin, he’s just like the rest of the Rockies staff. Inflated ERA and WHIP, 4.61 and 1.56 and only averages 9.4 points per start. He’s absolutely not an option tonight. So do what you always do when it comes to Coors Field, get exposure.
Toughest Left/Right Matchups
Toughest Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
Johnny Cueto vs. Detroit Tigers – Cueto will make his second start as a Royal tonight, taking on the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers can look forward to his .176 avearge against lefties.
Erasmo Ramirez vs. Chicago White Sox- Believe it or not, Ramirez has been quite good this season. I bet you didn’t even realize it. He enters tonight allowing a .199 avearge to lefties. He could be a dark horse start for tonight.
Toughest Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
Scott Kazmir vs. Texas Rangers – Kazmir continues to revive his career with the Astros. It’s truly amazing to watch. He enters his start tonight allowing a .198 avearge to righties.
Dan Haren vs. Pittsburgh Pirates- This was the guy who was going to retire when he found out he was going to play for Miami. Now a Cub, Haren is holding righties to a .209 average.
Best Left/Right Matchups
Easiest Pitcher vs. Left Handed Batters.
Chris Rusin vs. Seattle Mariners – Next stop, the Rockies rotation! In news that will shock no one, Rusin is terrible against lefties (and righties.) A .333 avearge against lefties will do that to you.
Williams Perez vs. San Francisco Giants- Perez has had his stuggles, lefties included. He’s allowing a .302 average against them this season.
Easiest Pitcher vs. Right Handed Batters
Drew Hutchison vs. Minnesota Twins- Even against the Twins, I can’t get behind Hutchison. I mean, the guy is giving up a .329 avearge to righties this season.
Carlos Rodon vs. Tampa Bay Rays- Rodon was and still is a highly touted prospect. He just can’t seem to get with it when it comes to righties. They’re hitting .311 against him. Nice job, scouts.
Anthony Rizzo ($4900) – Rizzo was at the bottom of the list yesterday, and he shoots up to the top today. The man just continues to hit. Rizzo enters tonight 14 for his last 26 wtih four home runs, 11 RBIs, and seven runs scored.
Nelson Cruz ($6200) – Cruz and his boom stick. It never seems to fail. Cruz walks into Coors Field tonight 15 for his last 30 with five home runs, six RBIs, and five runs scored. Good luck fitting him into your lineup with that price tag.
Brandon Phillips ($4800) – Here’s someone we haven’t seen in a long time. Phillips has been doing it all for the Reds lately. Phillips is 10 fr his last 25 with two home runs, seven RBIs, four runs scored and four stolen bases.
Best Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
Billy Butler vs. Wei-Yen Chen – Ehhh, I know, Butler hasn’t been having a good year with Oakland. However, he’s got some good numbers against Chen tonight. Butler is 8-18 against Chen with five extra base hits, two of them being home runs, and a 1.474 OPS.
Adrian Gonzalez vs. Aaron Harang – Harang is so predictable. He starts every season on fire and everyone is like “oh damn, Harang, baby!” Then a couple months later he starts pitching like Aaron Harang and we remember he’s not that good again. Well Gonzalez would like to help remind you that he’s not that good. Gonzalez is 10-23 with five extra base hits, three of those being home runs, and a 1.393 OPS.
Anthony Rizzo vs. Jeff Locke- Rizzo just might be my guy for who you pay up for tonight. Besides his hot streak, he also has good BvP numbers? Talk about a Steve Buchanan dream. Rizzo is 6-18 against Locke with four extra base hits, two of those being home runs, and a 1.206 OPS.
Early forecasts suggest the Giants and Braves could see a delay to start the game, but unlikely it would be PPD. As always, check closer to game time. Or don’t and lose.
One Pitcher To Build Lineups Around
Johnny Cueto vs. Detroit Tigers ($10,100) – Seems a bit crazy, right? Maybe not as much as you’d think. Overall, the Tigers are one of the best offenses in the league, correct? Yes. But they’re struggling lately. Let’s jump into some numbers. Over the last two weeks, the Tigers have a team wOBA of .299, which sits at 20th in the league. During that span, they’re hitting only .246 and have scored only 49 runs, which ranks them 19th in the league. They strike out a lot, 6th in the league and Cueto owns an 8.4 K/9 on the season. So while on the surface it may seem a bit crazy, I really don’t think it is. Harvey is off my radar because of his price and the Marlins are aren’t that easy to strikeout, as they come in at 18th. Also, this is simply an observaation, but doesn’t it feel like every time Harvey has an “easy matchup” this season, he implodes?
Superstar Worth Paying For
Anthony Rizzo ($4900) –Shouldn’t come as any suprise that Rizzo is in this section. So let’s go over this one more time, he’s on a real hot streak, 14-26 with four home runs. He has great numbers against Jeff Locke tonight, 6-18 with four extra base hits. Finally, to further add fuel to the fire, Rizzo is crushing LHP this season. He’s batting .330 against them with four home runs and a .968 OPS. So many factors going for Rizzo tonight that I’d have a hard time keeping him off my roster.
Save Big Bucks By Drafting…
Cesar Hernandez($3000) – Hernandez is a gift with how low his price tag is. At just $3000, he enters tonight 9 for his last 22 with a stolen base. That in itself, exemplifies what type of player Hernandez is. He can get you a couple of hits and always has the potential to sprinkle in a stolen base. The Phillies have the top wOBA in all of the majors in the past two weeks, with Hernandez usually slotted in the leadoff spot, you certainly have some value here.